Many high-profile IPOs in India since 2021 have destroyed investor wealth due to overvaluation, weak business models, and post-listing disinterest, turning 1 lakh investments into as little as 3,500.
The index could be vulnerable to a bigger fall given the present market dynamics.
'Selling could further intensify and take the index towards 22,800-22,750 in the near-term.'
The last time these two indexes recorded a negative performance on a calendar year basis was in CY19.
With just four trading sessions to go for the ITC-ITC Hotels demerger record date shares of ITC continue to consolidate in a thin range of Rs 460 - Rs 480 in an otherwise volatile equity market. On Tuesday thus far despite a near 1 per cent fall in the Sensex and Nifty; ITC traded on a flat note. ITC had set the demerger ratio at 1:10 - meaning 1 share of ITC Hotels for every 10 shares of ITC as of the record date January 6, 2025.
'On the weekly chart, the Nifty 50 index has formed a bearish candle and remains below all short-term moving averages.'
If technical analysts are to be believed, the index has more room for a slide down to 72,000 levels in the worst-case scenario, wiping out all the gains made in 2024 so far.
If the index is unable to sustain above 24,500 levels, technically it can then slip to its 200-DMA placed at 23,365 levels.
Technical charts indicate a possibility of a meaningful correction in the upcoming months.
The bias for the BSE benchmark index, technical charts suggest, is likely to remain bullish as long as the index holds above 75,600 levels for the rest of the year.
'It is advisable to stay away from the markets for now and buy only on a dip.'
The NSE Nifty 50 has slipped 3.4 per cent, or 764 points, in the last five trading sessions, after registering a fresh all-time high at 22,794.70 on Friday, May 03, 2024. In the process, the Nifty 50 index is seen quoting close to its 100-DMA (Daily Moving Average) of 21,970 for the second time in less than a month. Earlier on April 19, 2024, the Nifty 50 had tested the 100-DMA support, and then staged a smart rally of 4.7 per cent, or 1,017 points, to hit the new peak of 22,794.70.
Analysts remain bullish on the road ahead for the equity markets, but warn against volatility on account of domestic and global cues. The upcoming Lok Sabha elections back home and the interest rate trajectory of the US Federal Reserve, they said, will be the two most important factors that the markets will keep a tab on. That apart, the valuation of the Indian markets, they feel, will also be eyed in context of how global peers are performing.
Tracking losses in the broader market that has seen the Nifty Smallcap 250 index and the Nifty Midcap 100 indices slip 9 per cent 6.1 per cent in the last three sessions, the frontline Nifty 50 index has remained resilient and registered a fall of 2.2 per cent during this period. Going ahead, can the nervousness in the mid- and small-cap universe spread to the large-cap peers? Most analysts do not think so. They expect a minor dip and a sharp recovery as investors flock to the large-caps in search of safety and value buying as the mid-and small-caps falter.
It has mostly been a one-way street for smallcap stocks that have taken it on their chin thus far in February. The Nifty Smallcap 250 index has shed 3.2 per cent in the current month as compared to the 1.8 per cent decline in the Nifty Midcap 100 and the 0.5 per cent drop in the Nifty 50 index, data showed. Technically, the index has slipped below its 20-day moving average (DMA) placed at 14,800 levels on Monday, and is currently testing the 50-DMA, and is placed at 14,278 levels.
Nearly 90 per cent of the stocks comprising the National Stock Exchange Nifty 500 Index and 49 of the 50 stocks that make up the Nifty50 are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages (DMAs). The 200-DMA is considered one of the most relevant trend indicators by investors and traders. They believe that stocks and indices trading above this key level exhibit strength and are likely to rally, while those trading below this level are viewed as bearish, with the stock/index expected to see a selloff.
'Focus on 19,400/64,900 as the key resistance levels for the Nifty/Sensex.'
'We are not entirely out of the woods.' 'The broader trajectory remains tentative.' 'However, we may expect some near-term bounce.'
Historically, March has been a volatile month for Indian equity markets. To begin with, it marks the end of a financial year, wherein there is some compulsive portfolio rebalancing trade by large funds - domestic and foreign. Retail investors, too, prefer to 'cash in' on their gains and losses before the financial year runs out.
Among the Sensex 30 stocks, new entrant Sesa Goa soared 22 per cent to Rs 187, while TCS rose 11 per cent to Rs 2,023.
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