'Markets never fully lose hope. But an important shift could come if the Strait remains closed -- moving from high prices to no prices.'
Despite geopolitical tensions and FII outflows, Indian small and midcap stocks have not only recovered losses but are also outperforming largecap indices, driven by attractive valuations, domestic institutional support, and a rebound in earnings.
'In India's case, an extended earnings slowdown accompanied by rich valuations have dimmed returns since late 2024.'
'... with the rest split between mid and smallcaps, as valuations are becoming more attractive across segments.'
Reliance Industries is expected to report largely flat performance for its fourth quarter (January-March, Q4) of FY26, with weakness in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business and muted retail growth likely to offset steady gains in the telecommunications segment.
Analysts have largely maintained a bullish outlook on HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank following their Q4FY26 results, though their perspectives on future growth drivers differ. HDFC Bank's near-term performance is tied to accelerating loan growth, while ICICI Bank is seen as a strong candidate for a valuation rerating.
Analysts are increasingly optimistic about India's capital markets, with HDFC AMC, CAMS, and KFin Technologies identified as top investment picks. This optimism stems from a structural shift in household savings towards financial instruments and an expected multi-year earnings expansion for market infrastructure providers and asset management companies.
'Mark Mobius's life was dedicated to investing.'
'In investing, poor sentiment is always a good vintage to build a portfolio.'
'The March correction was clearly due to the war and with prospects of that coming to a conclusion, there is a natural rally.'
Fixed deposits from nationalised banks delivered higher returns than equities, outperforming both inflation and stock market benchmarks.
Analysts warn that global markets are significantly underpricing the risk of an oil price shock, with Brent crude potentially soaring to $150 per barrel if the West Asia conflict escalates or damages critical oil and gas infrastructure. This could lead to severe inflation and economic repercussions, particularly for import-dependent nations like India.
Domestic institutional investors, on the other hand, made a net investment of Rs 1.13 trillion during this period.
India's aviation sector is facing fresh turbulence, with rising fuel costs, the Ministry of Civil Aviation's free-seat directive, and geopolitical disruptions in West Asia clouding near-term earnings visibility.
Foreign brokerages have started to cut their year-end targets for the Nifty 50 index amid the ongoing West Asia conflict.
The BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 declined around 4.5 per cent each since the start of the West Asia conflict.
A fall in the Nifty 50 to around 19,000 is not impossible, but that would likely require nuclear options to be exercised.
'Oil is still well below its all-time highs, and the world is gradually running out of known reserves.'
Jefferies has downgraded Indian information technology (IT) companies Infosys, HCLTech, and Mphasis to "hold"; LTI MindTree, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Hexaware to "underperform", citing artificial intelligence (AI)-related concerns. Coforge, Sagility and IKS, however, still remain its top picks.
Stocks of fast-moving consumer goods companies have taken it on the chin in calendar year 2026 (CY26) with the Nifty FMCG index falling over 6 per cent compared to the Nifty 50 dipping 0.8 per cent. Nifty FMCG is one of the worst-performing sectors on the NSE in CY26.
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