It is high time the Indian government signalled discomfort with the UK providing refuge to those accused of financial crimes in India, states Jaimini Bhagwati.
In the context of market integrity, the IRAI and RBI should go over the minutes of the LIC and SBI board meetings when the decisions to invest in Adani equity or debt were taken, notes Jaimini Bhagwati, former World Bank treasury professional.
The pandemic has brutally highlighted the inadequacy of India's administrative systems. And, the government has demonstrated its culpable inability to speed up vaccination in a timely manner, says Jaimini Bhagwati.
'A balanced head plus heart approach would be a full opening up of the economy including manufacturing and internal travel in the country but excluding COVID-19 hotspots,' recommends Jaimini Bhagwati.
The Economic Survey seems convinced that 2019-2020 saw the bottom of the economic cycle, points out Abheek Barua, chief economist, HDFC Bank.
If net forex outflows turn out to be relatively high in the next few years, the rupee could depreciate beyond Rs 80 to a dollar by 2022. The causal reasons could, for example, include unmet expectations of FPI and FDI investors about the performance of the Indian economy, sharp rise in prices of imported oil and decrease in FX remittances. The RBI has to ask itself whether guaranteeing future rupee-dollar exchange rates on FX forward contracts is a reasonable way to use its risk-bearing capacity, says Jaimini Bhagwati.
Investors in LIC's insurance and other schemes are receiving a lower rate of return because LIC is subsidising incompetence at best and malfeasance at worst in institutions such as IDBI Bank and IL&FS, says Jaimini Bhagwati.
Despite the Indian government's recent efforts anecdotal evidence indicates that there has been little change in the extortionist behaviour of a significant proportion of tax and police officials, says Jaimini Bhagwati.
The NDA government was initially reticent about fleshing out its economic strategy for the future. But now that it has taken enough bold initiatives on the economic front it must have the confidence to tell us more about its approach going forward, says Abheek Barua.
Political risk culminating from elections in the US and Latin America, and evolving right-wing populism in Europe could lead to substantial volatility, say Abheek Barua & Tushar Arora.
Given the international practice, it is inexplicable why the government is going with anonymous electoral bonds.
China is keen to rebalance its economy towards higher consumption, services, technology use and value-added exports. The hope is that its currency will strengthen as the world embraces it as a global trade and reserve currency, say Abheek Barua & Bidisha Ganguly.
The trinity of rising stocks, rising yields and rising dollar since Donald Trump's election has already faced a setback.
Economist Abheek Barua's insight into the global and domestic economy at the turn of the financial year.
Abheek Barua & Bidisha Ganguly explain why the US treasury should intervene if the overvalued greenback continues to rise.
A combination of reduced cash intensity, a focused strategy of tax administration and GST is the way to go, say Sakshi Gupta, Tanvi Garg and Abheek Barua.
'The government's principal aim should be to reduce the volume of cash transactions.' 'That would bring more of the Indian economy within the purview of taxation.' 'The current downturn in economic activity due to a lack of adequate cash is likely to be limited to a year,'
OPEC's move to cut output has pushed up oil prices. From here it could go either way: oil could reach $100/barrel or an analysis of demand and supply might follow, say Abheek Barua & Bidisha Ganguly.
Reducing policy rates is not enough. The key is to ensure banks lend to credit-constrained borrowers.
To cut interest rates, the central bank head has to open up a debate on inflation target revision.
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