Election-related freebies and populist measures are other factors crimping the revenue profile of these states.
Eighteen of India's 28 states exceeded the fiscal deficit ceiling of 3 per cent of GSDP in FY25, a deterioration comparable to the Covid year of 2020-21, according to the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG). The report also noted a decline in states reporting a revenue surplus, with Bihar, Mizoram, and Telangana moving into deficit.
India's unemployment rate reached an 11-month high of 5.5 per cent in May, up from 5.2 per cent in April, according to the National Statistics Office, indicating a softening labour market as labour-force participation also eased.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran stated that India's economy is projected to return to a 7 per cent-plus growth trajectory by 2027-28 (FY28), or sooner if external conditions improve, despite near-term challenges from the West Asia crisis.
Assam emerged as the fastest-growing large state with a remarkable 17.3 per cent nominal GDP CAGR over five years.
The new Index of Industrial Production (IIP) series, which shifts the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23 and is scheduled for release on June 1, will, for the first time, track rare earths and minor minerals, piped natural gas (PNG), and water supply, sewerage and waste management.
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has urged the Indian government to gradually restore the Rs 10-per-litre cut in special additional excise duty on petrol and diesel over six to nine months. This move aims to relieve pressure on government finances as crude oil prices stabilise, without significantly impacting consumer sentiment.
Haryana recorded the fastest growth in unincorporated non-agricultural employment among major Indian states in 2025, with a 29.8 per cent increase to 3.1 million workers, while Gujarat experienced the sharpest contraction, declining by 12.6 per cent to 8 million.
India's unincorporated non-agricultural sector, excluding construction and corporate enterprises, added approximately 7.5 million workers in a single year, reaching 128.1 million employed in 2025, according to the NSO's ASUSE 2025 report.
India's like-for-like gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue growth slowed to a five-year low of 5.57 per cent in FY26, reaching Rs 23.32 trillion, primarily driven by a significant surge in import revenues.
'The West Asia or the Gulf crisis has shown that what we develop as national infrastructure when things are not as bad as they could be, we forget to plan for adversities.'
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) has projected the aggregate fiscal deficit of states to rise to 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026-27 (FY27), from an estimated 2.8 per cent in 2025-26 (FY26), citing higher revenue expenditure amid election-related pressures and scheme cost-sharing requirements.
India's main inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is set for another major update, even though it has been in its current form for only about 15 years.
Governments should move away from universal subsidies towards tightly targeted transfers, backed by stricter eligibility norms, sunset clauses and periodic audits to curb leakages and improve spending efficiency, a joint study by Asian Development Bank and PwC has recommended.
India's state-level fiscal rules have improved headline deficits, but the gains are fragile and uneven with major states still grappling with high debt levels, a World Bank report submitted to the 16th Finance Commission (FC) said. According to the report, despite nearly two decades of adoption of fiscal responsibility laws (FRLs), debt levels have not converged.
2027's housing census trims questions but adds digital-age indicators like Internet and smartphones.
Maharashtra has pipped Tamil Nadu in NITI Aayog's latest Export Preparedness Index (EPI) for 2024. While Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh gained ground, Karnataka and Haryana slipped out of the top five, the central government think tank said in its report released on Wednesday.
Supported by strong buoyancy in public sector capital expenditure (capex), growth in infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate in 2025-26 (FY26) compared to 2024-25 (FY25), according to the First Advance Estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for FY26 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Wednesday.
