Though the document is a decade old, dating back to May 29, 1998, it explains the way the allies in the National Democratic Alliance are engaged in hard bargains on the alliance for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
The document, written by a Delhi-based CIA operative, also shows the BJP in bad light on the nuclear issue. Sent much before famed Jaswant Singh-Strobe Talbott talks began, it says India, under the BJP, was ready to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The communication reads: "In our judgment, India is trying to goad the United States into making an attractive offer on CTBT, without tipping its own hand."
Titled "BJP flexing muscles, but how far will it go?", the document refers to the nuclear test conducted by the party to enhance its domestic political standing and says the decision to test was tightly held for reasons of secrecy, "but the BJP also has a history of ignoring its political allies when considering high-profile policymove."
It points out that the BJP has handled its state-level alliances in this way, "reasoning that partners who depend on BJP strength for their seats at the table should take a backseat on decision-making."
This and other sensational secret communications of the world's foremost espionage agency to top officials from 1951 to 2001 that became public because of a recent Presidential executive order are published in noted journalist Anuj Dhar's book "CIA's Eye on South Asia,". The book carries all such secret reports in full, of course with lines and paras "redacted" and so mentioned in the declassified documents.
An earlier secret communication on April 13, 1998, also discusses "BJP without Vajpayee" and says "it is also uncertain whether a new moderate leader could generate comparable support to challenge the influence of the hardliner factions."
The report puts former minister Jaswant Singh in the moderate camp and points out how Lal Krishna Advani's hardline camp was then dominating Vajpayee's small moderate camp. Former minister Murli Manohar Joshi falls in the category of extremists in the report.
Describing former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee as "Lone Wolf or a Wolf in Sheep's clothing," the communication said: "Although his political roots lie in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh -- the party's chauvinist parent organisation -- the statesman like Vajpayee has long reassured US officials that he would champion a moderate agenda."
It describes BJP as "the only party in India besides the Congress with enough clout to drive key decisions even when not in the government;" and further talks about of the US depending on it as it was in a position to take some decision on Pakistan.
"The BJP's strong nationalist and security credentials might allow it to make concessions that other Indian parties---fearing accusations of being soft on Pakistan---have been unwilling to consider," the report added.
Pointing out how the party's softening of its nationalist image to build mass appeal "has confused Western observers about its true intent on issues such as nuclear proliferation and relations with Pakistan," the communication said, adding that BJPs' approach on these subjects could swing from cooperative to antagonistic, depending on its resolution of disputes between hardline and moderate factions.
On foreign policy, another CIA report paints negative image of India's handling of its smaller neighbours. "India insists on dealing with each of its neighbors on a bilateral basis---a form of divide and rule. This policy enables New Delhi to enjoy the benefits of its size and power without the risk of being chastised or outvoted at multilateral regional meetings."
"With the possible exception of Pakistan, all of the smaller states recognise they are defenceless against India and depend on their own diplomatic skills and Indian good will for stable relations," the report added.
