Pranab Mukherjee's appointment as the external affairs minister heralds a 'course correction' in the United Progressive Alliance government's foreign policy.
Mukherjee, who is a traditional Congressman, is expected to restore the foreign policy to its time-tested moorings. There has been serious soul-searching within the party that, 'the Congress' glorious traditions of pursuing an independent foreign policy' have lately given way to a tilt toward the United States.
Furthermore, the Congress is conscious of the growing perception among the party's supporters that the government's foreign policy is creating serious political liabilities at home.
Far from being a demotion as some sections of opinion have made it out to be, Mukherjee's shift to the external affairs ministry has emanated out of a well-thought of political strategy by Sonia Gandhi. She felt that only a person with immense wisdom in the Congress' political ethos can undertake the difficult and delicate task of "course correction" in the present volatile international climate.
The Union Cabinet reshuffle on Tuesday may end Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's dream to claim credit as the man who dared to take an unprecedented, bold approach in matters related to foreign policy and launching India on an un-chartered course in global affairs.
This was to happen as the Congress has been factoring a possible failure of the on-going negotiations over the Indo-US nuclear deal which Dr Singh counted as his enduring legacy in foreign affairs.
Singh has now chosen to return from his forays into 'foreign affairs' to his area of traditional expertise and competency -- economics.
The nomination of a powerful, experienced and time-tested Congressman like Pranab Mukherjee by him and Congress President Sonia Gandhi as the new external affairs minister means that Singh is surrendering space to Mukherjee, and, equally, that Sonia Gandhi wants it that way.
No one has any doubt that it is a matter of time before Mukherjee will make his bid to restore the lost ground of diplomacy to serving diplomats, incrementally appropriated by the Prime Minister's Office in the past year.
According to the Congress party stalwarts' assessment, Singh with his "staid press releases" was simply unable to communicate with the party's diverse constituencies and electorate.
It will henceforth be Mukherjee who will spell out the nuances of the so-called 'global Islamic jihad' and interpret the bomb blasts such as in Mumbai in a political idiom that can be easily understood by the average Congressman.
This is the first task for Mukherjee in his new job, as per the unwritten covenant from No 10, Janpath (Sonia Gandhi's residence).
In the last 30 months, all major (and most minor) foreign policy decisions relating to America, China and Pakistan were taken by the PMO.
But with Mukherjee at the top of the heap in the foreign policy establishment at South Block, the dividing line will be redrawn again without any ambiguity, leaving nothing to fancy of newcomers.
Also, with Mukherjee's dominance inevitable in the making of foreign policy and its execution, National Security Advisor M K Narayanan will be asked to restrict himself to his forte, namely, security matters.
It is interesting to note that as prime minister, Singh has acquiesced to sharing his newfound passion for international affairs with his senior colleague instead of insisting that the assistance of a junior minister or two would do. Thereby, he too has gained in good measure.
Sonia Gandhi was principally motivated by two factors. The Congress party is concerned about the impact of broader issue of national security/terrorism including the dynamics of India's dealings with Pakistan on the one hand and the impact of price rise and farmer's suicides on the other hand on Indian voters' perceptions and thinking.
At the party's Hyderabad conclave earlier this year and in the meeting of Congress chief ministers at Nainital in September, most criticism came due to the party's inability to reach its message to its core voters. Critics within the party pointed out that the perception was that the Congress was incapable of maintaining and strengthening India's security, and that despite such a galaxy of economists and policy experts at the helm, the party was still unable to take care of its 'poor voters'.
In the past three months, there have been two parallel battles within the Congress party leadership.
A large number of Congress leaders are gunning for Finance Minister P Chidambaram and resent the affluence of Commerce Minister Kamal Nath.
"Congressmen are fed up with Chidambaram's arrogance. We want to remind him that India's 8 per cent growth is not the result of his budgets," says a prominent Karnataka Congress leader.
He claims that as the search for a new external affairs minister gathered momentum, the names of Power Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde, Chidambaram and former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Digvijay Singh were circulated for the post of home minister.
The Congressmen who were plotting the break-up of the 'Chidmabaram-Kamal Nath-Montek Singh Ahluwalia' nexus in the Manmohan Singh government calculated that if Shivraj Patil was shifted to the defence ministry, it would throw into disarray the 'economywalahs' camp which was monopolising access to Dr Singh on all policy-making and economic matters.
But it goes to Dr Singh's credit that he was able to persuade Sonia Gandhi that Chidambaram and Kamal Nath retain their portfolios. The economy is robust with 8 per cent growth and his dream of making India grow at 10 per cent is on course, Singh argued. And any tampering with his economic team would not reflect well amongst investors.
The latest figures concerning the financial health of the Indian economy helped Dr Singh enunciate his case with conviction. Sonia agreed with Dr Singh but put her loyalists in the defence (A K Antony) and labour ministries (Oscar Fernandes).
Dr Singh also repeated his move in suggesting the induction of Rahul Gandhi into the Cabinet but once again the idea was dropped and it was decided to wait till after the Uttar Pradesh elections next year.
Dr Singh also wanted young blood like Jyotiraditya Scindia or Ajay Maken but that too didn't work out. Evidently, until Rahul Gandhi joins the Cabinet, other Congress siblings will have to wait.
The expectations are that there will be a realignment at the top national security establishment with M K Narayanan gravitating to new Defence Minister A K Antony.
After a controversial television interview where he fumbled on the issue of evidence against Pakistan relating to Mumbai blasts, Narayanan has become vulnerable, and with the induction of an assertive external affairs minister, he has been further weakened.
However, Antony and Narayanan go back a long way. When Anthony was Kerala chief minister he worked closely with Narayanan, then with the Intelligence Bureau, in containing the Marxists in the southern state.
Antony, also finds himself at odds ideologically and politically with the economists in the Cabinet. Anthony and a section of the Congress president's coterie have had a longstanding tussle with P Chidambaram on economic policy issues, and to a lesser extent with Kamal Nath.
"It was decided that after the budget session there will be a dramatic reshuffle of the Cabinet when Chidambaram and others will be challenged," said a senior leader of the party.
On balance, from the point of view of inspiring confidence among the Congress voters, the half-hearted reshuffle serves no purpose.
The Congress voter may simply have to wait till next spring for a full-fledged reshuffle -- geared to chariot the party to the hustings.
