The combine of the Congress and the Rashtriya Lok Dal will emerge as the single largest party in the forthcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, according to yet another survey commissioned by the party.

The Congress-RLD combine will win 127 votes, says the survey. While the RLD will get 12 seats, the Congress will get a whopping 115 seats.
 
The survey also indicates that the real battle will be between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, with the latter making considerable gains since the last election and winning in 113 constituencies.
 
The survey, conducted by the American agency MODE, shows a sharp drop for Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party, which will get only 92 seats.

The Samajwadi Party, led by Mulayam Singh yadav, will win in 69 constituencies, says the survey.

Reportage: Renu MIttal

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The Congress's performance is the best in western UP, where the party will win 75 seats, claims the survey. The combine will fare particularly well in Muslim-dominated constituencies.

The 2012 UP assembly elections will mark the return of Muslim voters to the Congress, says the survey.
 
It is learnt that the Barelvi sect has issued a fatwa in favour of the Congress party and this has changed the dynamics of UP elections.

Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi had recently paid a visit to the leaders of the Barelvi sect.

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Gandhi's visit and the slew of measures taken by the Centre in favour of the Muslim community appear to be paying rich dividends for the party.
 
With the Muslim votebank shifting to the Congress, the biggest loser will be the Samajwadi Party.

Interestingly, Mayawati's BSP is relegated to the second slot in many constituencies in western UP.
 
The survey claims that the BJP will make big gains in eastern UP, particularly in Benaras and Gorakhpur divisions. But the Congress will get the second most share of votes there.

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Congress leaders have just one month to catch up and improve their performance in eastern UP. But the Congress has no major leader from the Bhumihar or Brahmin communities, who could have helped the party garner more votes.

Communities like the Rajputs, the Banias and significant sections of the upper castes are at the moment firmly backing the BJP. This is being perceived as a result of the political polarisation in the state, as the Muslim community is throwing its weight behind the Congress party.
 
According to sources, Congress leaders are worried as this is the first survey that has predicted that the BJP will get more than 100 seats in the assembly elections.
 
Based on feedback received from the state unit, the result of the surveys and complaints of party leaders and workers, the Congress is reviewing some of their choices for various constituencies. The party is likely to make certain course corrections.

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While some Congress leaders claim that the vote of the Kurmi community has shifted to their party, the survey contradicts them.

In a number of constituencies, including Faizabad division, where the Kurmi vote is in significant numbers, the BJP is poised to win.

The Yadav and Kurmi communities are not likely to vote for the Congress.
 
Though Congress leaders are happy with the results of the survey, which predicts that it will emerge as the single largest party, senior leaders point out that unless the party improves its performance in eastern and central UP, the BJP can narrow the gap further and emerge as a real threat.
 
If the survey's results bear out, the UP assembly polls are likely to witness a tough fight between the BJP and the Congress after a long gap, during which regional parties like BSP and SP had dominated the political space of India's largest state.

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