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Blair's future depends on India-born MP

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Last updated on: January 26, 2004 17:26 IST

An India-born parliamentarian may hold the key to the future of Britain's Labour government led by Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Left wing MP Marsha Singh, who represents the Bradford West constituency, is nursing a broken ankle at home in Bradford. But his pro-government stance is deemed so vital in Tuesday's House of Commons debate on topping up British university fees that Labour Party managers have arranged for him to be driven to London so that he can vote.

Political analysts say about 81 Labour MPs are needed to overturn Blair's 161 House of Commons majority, assuming nearly all the opposition Conservatives and Liberal Democrats vote against the Higher Education Bill.

The rebellion is made up of Labour MPs who say their party's 2001 general election manifesto specifically ruled out any increases in university fees.

The number of rebels is so substantial that party managers say they cannot predict the outcome of the vote.

Hence the importance of Singh, who has declared he will vote for the government if he is able to be present in parliament.

Labour rebels must swallow the higher fees proposals or trigger either a general election or, as is constitutionally possible, replace Blair with Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown.

Less than 24 hours after the debate, Lord Hutton publishes his report into the death of weapons scientist Dr David Kelly, with all its ramifications for how Britain came to join the United States-led invasion of Iraq.

In the longer term, regardless of the outcome of the Hutton inquiry and the higher education debate, Blair's popularity is expected to take a dive.

The lifeline offered by Singh will be welcomed, analysts say, but it only offers temporary relief to an embattled PM.

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