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Rediff.com  » News » S Carolina votes to decide fate of Obama, Clinton

S Carolina votes to decide fate of Obama, Clinton

By Sridhar Krishnaswami in Washington, DC
January 26, 2008 21:50 IST
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After a bitter campaign, Democrats voted on Saturday in the South Carolina presidential primary to decide the fate of main contenders Hillary Clinton, who has the odds stacked against her in the African-American dominated state, and Barack Obama, who is in a must-win situation.

As the first southern state cast its ballots, Obama, who is attempting to script history by becoming the first black president of the United States is sitting on a comfortable lead of about eight percentage points over his nearest rival Clinton.

However, no one is yet calling this critical primary for the simple reason that there is a large chunk of undecided factors.

The former senator and vice presidential candidate John Edwards is at the third place with less than 20 per cent backing.

Analysts are predicting that the outcome in South Carolina could be very close with first indications of what is in store starting to trickle in by 6:30 am IST on Sunday.

The South Carolina primary is the first contest in the South for the Democrats and has been dominated by the race issue as more than half the primary voters are expected to be African-American.

A victory in the state is especially crucial for Obama who won Iowa but lost to Clinton in New Hampshire and Nevada.

A defeat, which will be nothing short of a coup for Clinton, could be fatal setback for Obama's campaign.

Rattled by the successive defeats, Obama had earlier hit out Hillary' husband Bill Clinton saying his advocacy of his wife was troubling and had accused the former US president of making unsubstantiated allegations.

"South Carolina is important for Democrats for the same reason it's important for Republicans: It's the state where the base speaks. In the Republican case, that means conservatives. For the Democrats, that means African-Americans," said Bill Schneider, senior political analyst for CNN.

While Obama may have a solid backing of the African-American vote in South Carolina, analysts said it did not mean that Clinton had no backing at all from the community.

The closer the former first lady comes to splitting the black vote with Obama, the easier it will be for her to say that she and Obama share the support of that base.

A McClatchy-MSNBC poll conducted January 22-23 reported Obama leading with the support of 38 per cent of the likely Democratic primary voters polled. Clinton was in second place with 30 percent, and Edwards was backed by 19 percent.

The poll showed that among the black primary voters, Obama had a significant lead over Clinton -- 59 per cent to 25 percent. But the politically troublesome fact is that Obama is only backed by 10 per cent of white voters, the poll found.

Among whites, Edwards and Clinton are in a statistical tie, with Edwards backed by 40 percent and Clinton supported by 36 percent.

The primary is the last time Democratic voters with make clear their choice of presidential candidate ahead of the so-called 'Super Duper Tuesday' of February 5 when nearly two dozen states will hold either primaries or  caucuses -- including delegate-rich states such as California, New York, New  Jersey and Illinois.

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Sridhar Krishnaswami in Washington, DC
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