On May 26, when the first showers hit Kerala six days ahead of schedule, it brought cheer to farmers, officials at the Union agriculture ministry, economists and stockbrokers.
More than three weeks after the onset of the monsoon, there is fear in everyone's mind: 'Why have the rains stopped? When will the rains come now?'
The delay in the monsoon spreading across India's heavily-rain dependent states like Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra has prompted farmers to conduct special prayers for the rain.
"Farmers are very worried whether this year the rains will be less. So far, there have been no good rains. And if the monsoon is delayed further, it will be a disaster for many oilseed farmers," Mahesh Gupta, a member of the Soybean Processors Association of India, told rediff.com
Commodity traders like Gupta says any further delay in the rains could upset thousands of farmers in states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra where it is time for sowing soybean, a key winter harvested oilseed crop.
Farmers generally start sowing soybean by the last week of June. If the monsoon is delayed further, it could create havoc, experts like Gupta point out.
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At the heart of the panic is the four-month southwest monsoon that generally begins on the Kerala coast on June 1 and moves to the southern and northern parts of India.
June 1 is the scheduled date for the monsoon's onset in the coastal state of Kerala and it usually takes another around 28 days for the rains to reach the country's parched northern plains.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department, the west coast and northeastern states received widespread rains since the onset of the monsoon. But the monsoon activity along the west coast decreased considerably after June 3.
'The advance of the southwest monsoon into different parts of the country is never a systematic and regular feature. It is always accompanied with surges in the strength of southwesterly winds over the north Indian Ocean,' the IMD said in response to a rediff.com query.
In association with each surge, the IMD said, rainfall activity revives and the rain belt shifts north and northwest.
After each wet spell, there comes a period of about 8 to 10 days in which rainfall activity gets subdued, and the northward advance of the monsoon is halted.
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IMD officials say as per the forecast of several prediction models, the southwest monsoon activity is unlikely to revive in the next eight to 10 days. During this period, northwest and central India are likely to experience a rise in temperatures with maximum temperatures exceeding 40ºC.
Does it mean that India will have a weak moonsoon this year?
"No," said an IMD official, adding: "Signals continue to be favourable for the revival of southwest monsoon activity across the country in the next few days."
Analysts say a delayed monsoon and consequent dry spell could stifle the country's economy.
Dr C K Rajan, professor of monsoon meteorology, Cochin University of Science and Technology, says a delay of a few days in the arrival of the monsoon can badly affect the economy because productivity of crops like cotton, rice, oilseeds and coarse grains depends on the rain.
Agriculture in the country, which is heavily dependent on the monsoon, accounts for 25 percent of the Gross Domestic Product and employs 70 percent of India's more than one billion people.
"It should begin to pour in the next few days," said Dr Rajan. "The monsoon has been virtually static and it has to now move northwards."
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Traders say for commodities like oilseeds, good spells of rain are a must. Oilseeds should get good rains at the podding stage 15 days after sowing and 45 to 60 days later at the maturing stage.
The monsoon season from June to September accounts for 80 percent of rainfall in India. Most of the farming in the country is heavily dependent on it.
India's economy expanded at 8.2 percent last year on account of impressive farm production. If some key states come under the spell of drought, the economy could suffer.
