If the United States offers aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk to India, it will pitch America against Russia [Images] in the Indian market for aircraft careers, says Stratfor, a US-based think tank.

Kitty Hawk is a vintage aircraft carrier, which is scheduled to be decommissioned in 2012.

Stratfor writes that Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who is in India on a visit, plans to offer the aircraft carrier to India. But, the Defense Department strongly denies this.

However, if the reports turn out to be true, such an offer would be an interesting and potentially effective American move with geopolitical dimensions.

Stratfor writes, 'This would place United States and Russia in competition with each other over India."

In 2004, Russians and Indians signed a deal under which New Delhi was to acquire Russian carrier Admiral Gorshkov for $1.5 billion.

Stratfor points out that 'in 2007, Russians surprised the Indians by raising their asking price. After intense negotiations, the Indians agreed to pay approximately $800 million extra. In return, the Russians agreed to improve the package they had offered to the Indians, including the addition of a new ski jump facility that would allow for the use of the Russian MiG-29 aircraft. Given the potential aircraft sale, the Russians are ahead on the deal. However, as of Gates visit, the new agreement had not been signed.'

Startfor adds, 'If rumours about a US decision to offer the Kitty Hawk to India are true, the move clearly is designed to block the sale of the Gorshkov. An American and a Russian carrier in one fleet would create substantial problems for the Indians.

'Operating an aircraft carrier is one of the most complex military and engineering functions in the world. Having two different carriers made by two different countries housing two different sets of equipment separated not only by age but also by fundamentally-different engineering cultures would create a hurdle that probably would be beyond anyone's capability -- and certainly beyond India's.'

Stratfor assumes, 'So, Gates could be offering the Indians a choice and a challenge. The choice would be between a US carrier technology -- which even when obsolete by American standards is the result of several generations of battle-tested systems -- and a Soviet-era system that challenged the Soviet ship and aircraft designers. On that level, the choice would be easy.'

The think tank further says, 'It has not been easy shifting away from the Soviet weapons' culture; years of training and a substantial Indian knowledge base rest on those weapons. If the Indians continue adopting American weapon systems, not only will they have to retrain and restructure their knowledge base, they also will get locked into American systems. And that locks them into dependence on the United States.  

'If the United States were to cut the flow of weapons, parts and support, Indians could be systematically weakened. Buying the Gorshkov rather than Kitty Hawk would give the Indians second-rank technology with fewer potential political strings. Since Indians are not going to be challenging the American fleet, Gorshkov might well suit their purposes and keep their non-American options open. This is where the Russian decision to renegotiate the Gorshkov's price could hurt Moscow [Images].

'The only reason to buy the Gorshkov instead of the Kitty Hawk is the perception of Russian reliability. But the Russians badly damaged this perception by renegotiating.'

Stratfor believes that the Russians assumed that Indians had no choice, but to rework the deal. But the purpose of Gates' visit could be to let India know that it does have a choice and that the Kitty Hawk is the safer option.

If so, Gates will tell New Delhi that the Russians cannot be trusted. They have shown India how they will behave if they think it has no options. The United States is not going to be less trustworthy than that. And India does not have to go with Russian carrier technology and aircraft; it can have US carrier technology, an upgrade of the Kitty Hawk and F/A-18 battle-tested aircraft, trainers and advisers, rather than MiG-29s."

Stratfor concludes, 'If Gates does make this case, the issue then will be whether the United States will permit some or all of the F/A-18s to be produced in India -- something the Russians have permitted with other aircraft purchases. We suspect something could be worked out and US-Indian relations will continue to develop if the Indian fear of being completely dependent on the United States can be overcome."