Chicago, The Hours and Gangs Of New York are being seen as shoo-ins for major Oscar nominations, to be announced on February 11. But there is also intense speculation about two other movies that be will be nominated in the top categories.
Often, little seen but well regarded movies like In the Name Of The Father or My Left Foot have received such nominations. So will the harrowing Holocaust-based psychological drama The Pianist, which marks a comeback for filmmaker Roman Polanski after nearly two decades of indifferently made films, be this year's surprise candidate? Or could it be the unusual and gripping love story revolving around two comatose women, Talk to Her? The latter, a Spanish film directed by Pedro Almodovar, has grossed a robust $30 million in Europe, and about $4 million in America where it is still running in a few cities.
Spain did not nominate the film to the foreign film Oscar category. But it remains eligible for nomination in all other Oscar categories. The Pianist, on the other hand, has grossed $7 million in America. Even without any Oscar nominations, it is expected to gross $12 million -- nomination in one or more categories though will give it a terrific boost not only in America but also in Europe where it has grossed an impressive $34 million, making it the surprise hit of the year.
Will Adaptation, a quirky movie about the writing process, push out the more talked about film About Schmidt? At least at the box-office, the Jack Nicholson-starrer Schmidt has done far more impressive business ($42 million) than Adaptation ($16 million) but looks to be on its way out with $20 million, without the help of major Oscar nods.
Schmidt has ridden the box office wave on good reviews, and raves for Nicholson's extraordinary performance as a retired man who has to learn key life lessons -- as of now it is expected to earn $60 million, but a major nomination or three could rocket it to $80 million or more, besides getting a box overseas where it has just opened in a few European territories.
It is interesting too to see whether several movies that opened in the early part of 2002, and which were largely ignored at the Golden Globes, win a few key nominations. DreamWorks' poignant gangster drama about fathers and sons, Road To Perdition, is one among them. Director Sam Mendes had navigated his first film American Beauty to an impressive worldwide box-office over two years ago, and harvested key Oscars including Best Film -- the question is, can Mendes repeat?
The dark sci-fi drama Minority Report, directed by Steven Spielberg for DreamWorks, is also a contender. Both movies received strong reviews and decent box-office grosses. Road earned about $180 million worldwide, qualifying for a medium range hit tag, while Minority Report is headed for a superb $350 million worldwide.
DreamWorks has taken many For Your Consideration advertisements for both movies in trade publications, and re-released Road To Perdition in New York and Los Angeles in late January, perhaps hoping that it had the better chance of garnering nominations.
The makers of the low budget Frida, which was quite a success with a $22 million gross, expect a Best Actress nomination for Salma Hayek who coproduced the film and played the title role of the long suffering and unconventional Spanish painter. The movie could also earn a raft of nominations in technical departments. It has just opened abroad, and stands to gain by the nominations.
Critical acclaim for and the box-office performance of Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers has been stronger than its predecessor. Naturally, there are speculations that the movie could earn top Oscar nominations. But some Hollywood observers believe that since the first Lord of the Rings won big nominations, the second one may be passed over.
Among the three top Oscar contenders, the innovative, wildly entertaining musical Chicago is destined for the best box-office performance even without nominations. The film, which added over 1,200 theatres on Friday in anticipation of muscular Oscar nominations on Tuesday, has already grossed $51 million. Now in about 1,800 theatres, it could end with about $80 million. With nominations and a few key Oscar wins, expect it to dance beyond the $100 million mark.
The Hours, the psychological drama built around three women, has so far performed well only in a handful cities, earning a decent $20 million. Without nominations, expect it to shut down with $30 million, and a prayer that it will do far better business on video and DVD. But the critically acclaimed film directed by Stephen Daldry, which has superlative performances by Nicole Kidman, Meryl Streep and Julianne Moore, could earn a solid $50 million with the help of key nominations.
Martin Scorsese's Gangs Of New York has seized about $68 million. A fascinating study of urban terrorism and territorial wars, which cost about $110 million and is among the more expensive films of 2002, it has not broken out as a major hit partly because of its gritty nature and violence. It could end its run with about $72 million.
Overseas, Gangs is a bigger hit, having bagged $64 million in its early run. Its best foreign gross so far is in Japan where it took about $22 million. The film is on the way for a $120 million gross, thanks considerably to the great fan base Leonardo DiCaprio has abroad. But Oscar nominations and a key win could take it past $150 million.
