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A look at India and world's major economies

Last updated on: February 11, 2013 07:44 IST

A look at India and world's major economies

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Citi recently published its 48-page "Global Economic Outlook and Strategy" report, which provides up-to-date commentary and forecasts for the major economies covered by the bank's army of economists'.

The team breaks down what's going on in each economy, and gives GDP growth forecasts through 2016.

Let's take a look at how India and world's major economies will perform in the next four years.

Click NEXT to see how India's economy will perform...

Image: A model holds a glass of red wine during the Vinitaly wine expo in Verona, Italy.
Photographs: Stefano Rellandini/Reuters
Tags: India , GDP

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India

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 6.2 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 6.9 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 7.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 7.4 per cent

India's economy will chug along, gaining momentum towards the end of 2014.

Click NEXT to see how China's economy will perform...


Image: Tourists carry earthen pitchers on their heads as they participate in the 'Matka Race' competition as part of the International Camel Festival at Ladera village, near Bikaner, Rajasthan.
Photographs: Stringer/Reuters
Tags: GDP , India , China

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China

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 7.8 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 7.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 7.0 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 7.5 per cent

A declining working age will put downwards pressure on growth, as it will have profound impacts on labour costs and supply in the long run.

Click NEXT to see how the United States's economy will perform...


Image: A woman shops in a Louis Vuitton store in Shanghai.
Photographs: Carlos Barria/Reuters

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The United States

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 1.9 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 3.1 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.5 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 4.0 per cent

Slow but steady growth will mean that inflation will remain stable.

Click NEXT to see how the United Kingdom's economy will perform...


Image: People carry shopping bags as they make their way in Herald Square in New York City.
Photographs: Keith Bedford/Reuters

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A look at India and world's major economies

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The United Kingdom

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 0.4 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 0.7 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.5 per cent

The economy faces persistent headwinds from private deleveraging, poor credit availability, structural export weakness and the EMU crisis, while fiscal drag is increasing this year, says Citi.

Click NEXT to see rest of the countries...


Image: Pedestrians walk along Oxford Street in London.
Photographs: Paul Hackett/Reuters

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Canada

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 1.8 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 2.7 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.2 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 3.3 per cent

Weak global demand and competition are putting a damper on exports, and housing moderation and fiscal consolidation are capping domestic demand.

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Image: Amateurs prepare for Pillow Fight League as referee Sarah Bellum, right, watches during a late night event in Toronto.
Photographs: JP Moczulski/Reuters
Tags: GDP , India , Canada

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Mexico

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 3.6 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 3.8 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 4 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 3.8 per cent

Growth will be dependent on how well Mexico's Congress implements structural reforms, which may materialise in the second half of 2013.

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Image: A couple walk in Plaza Garibaldi in Mexico City.
Photographs: Daniel Aguilar/Reuters
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Brazil

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 3.1 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 4.2 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.5 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 3.5 per cent

Power rationing is putting an upwards pressure on inflation, and fiscal policy measures are proving to be ineffective.

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Image: Women in wedding gowns jump on the street during a 'Parade of Brides' in Sao Paulo.
Photographs: Nacho Doce/Reuters
Tags: GDP , Power , Brazil , India

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Argentina

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 3.0 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 3.0 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 2.0 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: Minus 2.0 per cent

Citi says that even though real GDP growth fell in 2012, compared to 2011 (based on an in-house real GDP estimator), growth will likely pick up in 2013.

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Image: Women walk with polo magazines at the Campo Argentino de Polo in the Buenos Aires.
Photographs: Enrique Marcarian/Reuters
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Venezuela

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 2.0 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 2.0 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.1 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 2.5 per cent

Required economic measures will not take place until this uncertainty is resolved, and inflation will return to the 25 per cent mark, says Citi.

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Image: People have a drink at 360, a three-tiered rooftop bar, in Caracas.
Photographs: Jorge Silva/Reuters
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Germany

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 0.5 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 0.5 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.0 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 2.3 per cent

The economy is likely to benefit from a modest recovery in exports and limited financial easing. This year is an election year, and Citi expects that Angela Merkel will remain Chancellor, but with a different coalition partner.

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Image: A woman cools off in the pool of a fountain on a hot summer day in Berlin.
Photographs: Alex Domanski/Reuters

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France

GDP growth forecast in 2013: Minus 0.2 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 0.2 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.0 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.5 per cent

Citi says France's economy has seen slight cyclical deterioration in the last quarter.

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Image: Tourists walk through artificial fog at the Miroir d'Eau (Mirror of Water), a public art piece on the quay of the Garonne River in Bordeaux.
Photographs: Gelu Sulugiuc/Reuters
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Italy

GDP growth forecast in 2013: Minus 1.4 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: Minus 1.4 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 0.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 0.2 per cent

Elections uncertainty will weigh on investment decisions, and it's quite likely that Italy will need external financial assistance within the year.

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Image: A woman rides a bicycle in front of the Duomo cathedral in downtown Milan.
Photographs: Alessandro Garofalo/Reuters
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Spain

GDP growth forecast in 2013: Minus 2.2 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: Minus 2.0 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 0.6 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.2 per cent

Banks will likely need to recapitalise, thanks to rising unemployment and non-performing loans. Debt restructuring is inevitable.

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Image: Women wearing Sevillana dresses take part in the April fair in Seville.
Photographs: Javier Barbancho/Reuters
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Greece

GDP growth forecast in 2013: Minus 6.5 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: Minus 11.5 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.6 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.6 per cent

Only a major write-off in the euro area would make Greece's debt sustainable. Fiscal tightening will cost Greece around five per cent in GDP in 2013, and 2.2 per cent in 2014.

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Image: A woman walks outside a National Bank of Greece branch in central Athens.
Photographs: John Kolesidis/Reuters
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Ireland

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 0.5 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 1.5 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 0.9 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.6 per cent

Upwards revisions to the first three quarters indicate that Ireland's not do quite so badly. Ireland too will require some form of debt restructuring.

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Image: A woman cycles past the 'Coffee To Get Her' restaurant near Dublin city centre, which becomes a bar and club in the evenings.
Photographs: Cathal McNaughton/Reuters
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Portugal

GDP growth forecast in 2013: Minus 3.7 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: Minus 2.8 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: Minus 0.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 0.9 per cent

Portugal will need additional bailout funds after the current programme ends in mid-2014, says Citi.

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Image: A woman walks her dog in Lisbon.
Photographs: Rafael Marchante/Reuters
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The Netherlands

GDP growth forecast in 2013: Minus 0.9 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 0.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.0 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.2 per cent

Citi says the hike in VAT in October caused the Netherlands to go back into recession, and that the rising unemployment and falling home prices aren't helping any.

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Image: A woman rides her bicycle in Amsterdam.
Photographs: Michael Kooren/Reuters
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Belgium

GDP growth forecast in 2013: Minus 0.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 0.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.2 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.5 per cent

Citi says the Belgium economy probably experienced a double dip in the second half of 2012, and that the economy will continue to contract through 2013.

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Image: Women help each other to cross a square during strong wind in central Brussels.
Photographs: Yves Herman/Reuters
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Switzerland

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 1.4 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 1.2 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.3 per cent

Citi says Swiss GDP growth will remain resilient, beating averages.

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Image: A woman rides a horse in front of Kloster Einsiedeln abbey in the central Swiss town of Einsiedeln.
Photographs: Arnd Wiegmann/Reuters

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Sweden

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 1.0 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 2.5 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 2.6 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 2.8 per cent

Domestic demand will remain weak, as consumers seem reluctant to spend despite sound household finances.

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Image: Children try out a new skateboard park built under a concrete viaduct in Ralambshov Park in central Stockholm.
Photographs: Bertil Ericson/Scanpix/Reuters
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Denmark

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 0.9 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 1.8 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.8 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.9 per cent

Large pent-up household demand, public sector consumption and investment will revive the Danish economy.

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Image: A mother and her child play near the water in front of boats and autumn trees in Frederiksberg Garden in Copenhagen.
Photographs: Brian Bergmann/Scanpix/Reuters
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Norway

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 3.1 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 2.7 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 2.7 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 2.9 per cent

Despite headwinds from a slowing global economy, Norway's high oil receipts are cushioning it from recession.

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Image: Shoppers walk along Karl Johans Gate, the main shopping street in Oslo.
Photographs: Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters
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Russia

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 3.0 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 3.7 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 3.3 per cent

Growth will remain subdued, according to Citi, thanks to slowing retail sales high inflation.

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Image: A woman carries balloons in central Moscow.
Photographs: Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters
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Poland

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 1.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 2.8 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 3.3 per cent

Weakening economic activity and slowing growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 caused Citi to cut GDP estimates by 0.3 per cent.

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Image: A woman passes posters of a politician in the centre of Warsaw.
Photographs: Kacper Pempel/Reuters
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Turkey

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 4.0 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 4.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 4.6 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 4.5 per cent

The overall growth picture for Turkey remains mixed.

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Image: Istanbul's Levent financial district.
Photographs: Osman Orsal/Reuters
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Japan

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 1.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 1.2 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.5 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.2 per cent

Citi notes that the depreciation of the Yen combined with the recently announced economic stimulus package concentrated on public works spending will likely increase GDP growth by an additional 0.6 per cent in 2013.

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Image: A woman works next to a sale sign at a shopping district in Tokyo.
Photographs: Toru Hanai/Reuters
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South Korea

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 3.2 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 4.1 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 4.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 4.2 per cent

Citi cut growth estimates for Korea by 0.2 per cent for 2013, because of slower-than-expected growth momentum in the fourth quarter of 2012, which was due to sluggish exports and investments.

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Image: A university student wears traditional costume while peforming during the grand Confucian ceremony at Sungkyunkwan University in Seoul.
Photographs: Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters

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Indonesia

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 6.1 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 6.3 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 6.5 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 6.5 per cent

Rebounding coal and palm oil prices, which are good for Indonesia's economy, were more than offset by weakening oil and gas prices.

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Image: An aerial view of Indonesia's capital city of Jakarta.
Photographs: Supri/Reuters
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Australia

GDP growth forecast in 2013: 2.4 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2014: 3.0 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.5 per cent

GDP growth forecast in 2016: 3.6 per cent

Resilient commodity prices combined will Chinese growth will boost Australia's economy.


Image: Women cover themselves from rain in Melbourne.
Photographs: Daniel Munoz/Reuters
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