US recession fears, high oil price and weak global markets took it's toll on the Indian bourses. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended Monday with the second biggest fall in history. On Tuesday, it ended up marginally.
However, with the Fed cutting rates on Tuesday, most Asian and European markets rebounded. Will the Sensex move up from this point? Or is the Sensex likely to see further correction? What strategy should you follow? Is this the right time to buy stocks? If so, which stocks and sectors should you concentrate on?
In an hour-long chat on rediff.com on Wednesday, market expert Pranav Sanghavi replied to many such queries. Here is the transcript:
PRANAV SANGAHVI says,
However, with the Fed cutting rates on Tuesday, most Asian and European markets rebounded. Will the Sensex move up from this point? Or is the Sensex likely to see further correction? What strategy should you follow?
Is this the right time to buy stocks? If so, which stocks and sectors should you concentrate on?
AniBan asked, Hi Pranav, two questions... 1. Your views on gold ETF 2. Why did the market underperform today (compared to DJ, NASDAQ or far east indices) irrespective of such a huge upward gap in opening?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, at 2008-03-19 16:00:32Hi AniBan, to answer you first query, Gold ETF's are an efficient way to acquire gold without all the hassels of holding the physical gold, paying wealth tax etc. It's a much better way to invest into gold. There is still a negative sentiment in the market. US Markets may have bounced today but the scenario is still weak. When a once US$ 90 billion valued Baer Sterns company is sold ofr a mere US$ 240 million due to the subprime losses, you can imagine the magnititude of the problem. I think there is still some weakness left in the short term despite todays rise accross all indices.
abc asked, Your view on GMR Infra, Pyramid Saimira & Lupin
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Right now stocks accross all sectors are down. Infrastructure is no exception. I would still wait a bit to get in. On massive corrective days you could pick up small quantities of 5 to 10% of what you actually wish to hold. But buy only with a long term outlook. That too I would recommend frontline quality stocks who have grown over 20% in the past couple of years and look to do so in the future.
aJEET asked, whats the next target of sensex, nifty
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, No one can give you a target for the Indices. In my previous chats I had mentioned that the Jan lows could be tested. We have tested the same and even broken them. So now the global markets and local sentiment will rule the direction in which the market moves. Markets still look volatile and one should be carefull before plunging in.
harry asked, Dear Sir, I have taken much lost in share market but suggest me is this time is good to purchase good share of blue chip companies and suggest me please
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Yes everytime like last Monday when the marekts were down by 1000 point at one time would be a good time to buy 5 to 10% of the total quantity of the stock you wish to purchase of quality profit making companies.
alok asked, icici bank i purchace on 1000 what should do hold or exit?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, I think you should hold on. The management has come out and said they do not have any major exposure to US subprime mortgage markets. I would hold on.
UPENDRA asked, I have 200 shares of polaris at @90, GMR @163, Vijaya Bank @63 Reliance Capital@1370@reliance Industries @2300, Suzlon Energy@ 252, NTPC @190, Powergrid@110? Shall i hold or sell?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Barring Polaris probably I would surely hold on to all the stocks you have mentioned.
raj asked, hello sir can i purchase Zindal now and what's the position of that company
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, There are atleast 5 Jindal stocks, which one are you referring to?
Praveen asked, Hi ! What will be target of Sensex & nifty by the end of Dec'2008
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, It is difficult to call for the next day, and you are asking me to make a prediction for the year end. No one would be able to give you an accurate indication.
Hari asked, I am pretty new to stock market, but would like to invest with a 6 months - 1 year perspective, please suggest me with some stocks in which I can invest. I have 20000 in hand. I have a good portfolio of investments in Mutual Funds. Is this the right time to enter stock market to invest?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, You can look at stocks like SBI, RIL, L&T. At the risk of sounding repetitive, buy in small parts on corrective days.
sanjay asked, hello pranav, Pl. tell me about the GMR Infra, INDIAN HOTAL , Punj Lyod,Aditya Birla Nuvo, can i purchase or not.
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Indian Hotel has some excellent assets on its books. I think it is grossly underrated at current levels and you could look at it with a long term perspective. Punj Lloyd has corrected by over 50%, you could look at it with a 12 month outlook.
debjani asked, What is your view on DLF, especially in a scenario, when RBI doesn't reduce interest rate. I am speaking about a 3 year time horizon.
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, I think DLF has corrected by around 50% from its highs. The problem with real estate companies is that people are expecting the realty market to correct along with the capital markets. If that happens then players like DLF would face a tough time selling all their developments. This is the perception of the markets and thats why they are correcting. Suddenly everything doesnt look as rosy as it did just 6 months back. But I think they will still deliver decent results for the quarter ended March, 2008.
vaidhy asked, HI Pranav
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Hi
MD asked, Sir, i have 150 TTML @36 , what should i do. i have 100 GMRInfra@154, what should i do.what is the future of the both? suggest me plz.
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, In the short term the markets look to remain volatile. They could consolidate beyond the April results season. You will have to hold on to the stocks you have mentioned.
aJEET asked, i hv 20 shares of tech mahindra with purchasing of Rs. 1930 i don't know whats happending with this share
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Well they just received another order from British Telecom yesterday for which the company announced they would need further employees. Which is a good sign. The Rupee dollar rate also has appreciated slightly in the exporters favor. But it will take a long time to reach the levels you mention. The company fundamentally is still strong.
aa asked, Hi Sir, What will be future of IFCI ?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, I have explained in my previous chats that till as such time the governement decides on the stake sale decision there would be not much movement in the stock. Though the company has turned around in terms of profitability, I don't think they have a strong management team to lead the company towards growth.
rawatji asked, I have 4800 graphite india and 750 hexaware technology. i have accumulated these shares at different levels. kindly advice should i hold or exit.
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Graphite India you can surely hold on to.
Pawan1 asked, Hi Pranav, MY portfolio is not in red but my all the profits has been gone, i am holding IDEA, Petronet, Powergrid, RPL, want to know the future of these stocks. Please advise
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, You will have to hold on to these stocks with a long term perspective to see gains. All the mid cap stocks will still take a long time to move up.
nifty asked, hows icici@770, siemens@655, Larsen@2650?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, I like all the three stocks you mention. I would surely look at them at these levels.
Abhishek asked, Hello Sir, I have around 250 shares of RPL @ rs 240 each. For a long term prospect should i hold this share.
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Yes you have got in at a high price though not at the highest level. You could surley hold the stock with a long term perspective.
vignesh asked, hi pranav., can i start mutual funds in diversified equity. As of now., i can invest upto 20K and i want that money to grow in mutual funds. Since in one way., i believe after the markets hit low., is it safe to invest in MF with my capacity ?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, it would be a great time to invest into large cap diversified growth funds. Also MF should be looked at with a long term outlook.
MOOONMOONSEN asked, I HAVE ICICI 56 @ 1100, 100 NTPC@245, 200GMR@235 WHAT TO DO NOW ? HOLD OR SELL ??
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, These are quality stocks and you could hold on. GMR you have got in at very high levels.
IRSHAD asked, PURCHASED KOLTE PATIL DEVELP @175/- HOW ONE SHOULD HOLD?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Kolte Patil is a regional real estate player. In the current scenario you should look at it carefully before entering. As there is a felling that the property markets could correct by around 20% over the next 6 to 9 months.
shantha asked, hi pranav, my portfolio is full in red i am holding rnrl,omaxe,orbit corp,ispat,hdil,burnpur cement can u suggest me please
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Burnpur I dont follow but the the others you could hold on to.
Sangarika asked, Hello Pranav! What are the prospects for infrastructure stocks from a medium to long term perspective?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, If the property markets do correct as they are expected then we could see most of the players facing problems of growth as projected by them in their prospectus or otherwise. Infrastructure on the other hand should not suffer as much as the government has only budgeted a higher amount for infrastructure spending. So INfra and all realted sectors should benefit from the Budget allocation/spending.
vaidhy asked, I have the following shares wiht me, JIndal steels, GVK, JP Hydro, Punj Lloyd, Ranbaxy,HUL, Dabur, NTPC, HIndalco,sterlite,RPL,IDFC,RNRL & GMR, Out of which whihc one should i hold and whihc one i should remove frommy port folio
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Barring RNRL, JP Hydro and Ranbaxy you could hold on to all the stocks you have mentioned.
kosa asked, is banking a safe bet to buy at current levels
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, I really like the PSU banks at current levels.
pANKAJ asked, Is it going to move more downward, some people expecting it to touch 12000, what is your opinion
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Right now the markets are at a very news sensitive state and any negative news is met with heavy selling. FII's who are in trouble in US have already selling a lot of their position in our markets. And they will continue to do so till things stabilize for them back home. Nothing can be ruled out but I doubt it would hit 12000 very soon.
Ravi asked, Today morning I hv bought icici 10 shares @Rs.807 per share, At this movement should i sold it or kept for future?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, I would recommend you hold it for the long term. It has substantiallyu corrected from its previous highs and I don't think the bank is in any serious problem as it's made out to be.
sikh asked, I have shares of DLF @ 700..Should I average them now or HOLD?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, You could hold on. If you can buy with a long term perspective you could buy in small quantities on corrective days.
Lalit asked, Should we buy Infosys at this level
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, I would not be in a hurry to buy Infy. In the short term the dollar has appreciated. But that could very quickly change once the markets stabilize and inch upwards.
sandeep asked, tata stl
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, I think it is a good buy with a 1 to 2 year perspective. But I will repeat buy only on corrective days.
nita asked, Hello Sir, I have an SIP for SBI Blue Chip fund for 3 years. Now only 1&1/2year has completed. I want to discontinue can I? & whats the procedure, Please guide me.
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, You will have to contact the fund house for the same. I would not be able to help you with that.
sjparker asked, hi can you predict where is indian market is heading. Can market survive our hard earned money. or is heading to 6000 mark.
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, See the Indian economy is not going to take a U turn overnight. We would surely know in 2 to 3 quarters how our corporates have fared in terms of the result posted by them. Our FM is pretty confident we shall grow our GDP at over 8% this year too. If we manage to keep inflation under control then I don't see why our markets should not eventually move up.
vijay asked, I have already lost Rs. 90,000 out of my Rs. 3 lakhs investment. Pls advice on what shares to be bet for recovering this loss during the next 3 months
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, You will have lost if you sell your stock. Till then it is only a notional loss. I would recommend if they are quality stocks then hold on and don't panic at this time.
ashishkare asked, Hi Big Brother..Can you tell me whats the future of RCOM,INFOSYS,ITC,TTML and SAIL? I m holding these stocks and stuck into these. Thinking to book loss and exist..
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, You can surely hold on to RCom and Sail with a 6 to 12 month outlook.
ad asked, hi... for how long do you see this bear phase to continue?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, See we have had a bull run now virtually for 3-4 years running. SO if we are in a bearish phase for even for 4 to 5 months it is only healthy for the markets.
Chandra asked, I have 20 shares of Reliance at @430, Ispat Industries @35, WWIL @40 Shiva Cement@10 Shall i hold or sell?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Yes you could hold on to the same.
jignesh asked, when the market is expected to bottom out , to which level its expected ?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, No one can predict a bottom for the market especially under the current bleak scenario in the US markets. There are so many negative factors like, gigantic sub prime mortgage losses which are not yet over, rising Yen vs the dollar which will affect all the yen carry trade players, rising crude prices, possible recession in the US market which is after all the biggest market in the world.
321 asked, PFC how is it at 150?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, I would rather look at a power generating stock like NTPC than a finance company related to the finance sector.
ram asked, can u please tell me what is future of ispat industries heard rumours to sell it at any price will go down very low
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, I have always mentioned to stay away from the stock over the last few months. It is a traders friendly stock and not much actually happening in the company. If the markets correct further so will Ispat and much more than the index.
Devinder asked, hello Sir please tell me about market where is market going now
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, To me the markets look to be volatile with a negative bias for the next couple of weeks at least. beyond 2-3 months of consolidation and range bound movement the markets could inch up with good corporate results for the first quarter next year. If the profitability of the top 100 corporates does fall then we could have a genuine problem on hand.
Lalit asked, Should i buy NTPC at this level
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Yes I would surley look at it.
ssroy asked, Hi... What about stocks like RPL, TISCO, Granules. All seem to be going down by the day.
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, RPL, TISCO are all long term stocks. You would have to look at them with a 1 to 2 year outlook.
Krrish asked, Hello Sir. I have got 20 Core Projects @ 400, 50 Praj Industries @ 120. Should I hold them?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, Yes you could. I like Praj expecially of the two.
abcd asked, hi i have tata motors@717 and crompton greaves@325 wat should i do ?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, You would have to hold on for 6 to 12 months at least.
amrit asked, i have jp asso, sail, praj - all have fallen by 50percent from my purchase. should i hold/average/sell?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, You would have to hold on to them.
Madhu Kulkarni asked, What is your view on Fertilizers??
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, I think the fertilizer sector will benefit from the budget.
manu asked, what is your mediumterm outlook for the market
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, I think the markets should consolidate for a while before they move up. In the short term the negative sentiment still persists.
vj asked, what is your take on bhel,larsen,idfc,yes,hdfc,icici ?
PRANAV SANGAHVI answers, I think all are quality stocks which could be looked at current levels. Instead of Yes bank I would look at SBI.
PRANAV SANGAHVI says, Well it's time for me to leave. Regret the delay in logging on. Thank you and bye.
Chat with Pranav every Wednesday at 4 pm