The global entertainment and media industry is expected to grow at a moderate rate over the next five years as economic uncertainty offsets the impetus of digital technologies, according to a new study.
US accounting and consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers released its overview of 14 media and entertainment sectors on Wednesday showing the main areas of growth to be television networks, cable and satellite TV and Internet access and advertising.
According to the report, the industry worldwide can be expected to grow 4.8 per cent per year on average, to $1.4 trillion in 2007 from $1.1 trillion in 2002.
The US media market alone would be expected to grow to $611 billion from $479 billion in the same period, it said.
"Economic and geopolitical uncertainty will make the market more variable -- there are so many things we can't call right now," said Peter Winkler, a director in the entertainment and media practice at PwC who participated in the report.
Winkler stressed the global shift to heavier defense spending as taking the air out of such industries as media.
The move to digital technologies -- especially as high speed Internet service, or broadband, becomes more popular -- should provide an overall boost to the media industry. But not before its soft underbelly is hit by piracy and the cost of shifting to digital platforms, he said.
"Digital services like digital video, as well as broadband Internet access, are going to be big revenue drivers. The Internet segment will grow at a faster rate but on a smaller base," Winkler said.
"The interesting part of the story is that the entertainment economy is like the Energizer bunny -- it just keeps going no matter what we have been hit by."
The PwC report forecast that global advertising spending would grow 4.1 per cent per year on average in the next five years, rising to $375 billion from $308 billion.
"TV and radio will gain share at the expense of print (media), as advertisers allocate more resources to those media with the largest reach," the report said.
High-speed Internet use is expected to more than triple in the next five years, from 42 million households worldwide in 2002 to 153 million in 2007, the report said. Internet advertising and access spending will likely rise by an average rate of 10 per cent, to $93 billion, the report added.
The market for filmed entertainment is expected to grow at an average rate of 6.3 per cent to $87.6 billion in 2007 from $64.5 billion in 2002, driven by DVD spending, the spread of multiplex cinemas and rising ticket prices.
Broadcast television and cable networks should see average annual growth of 4.9 per cent in ad spending and license fees, to $137.5 billion from $108.3 billion in the next five years, boosted by the emergence of new channels on digital television.
In addition, television distribution revenues for broadcast networks, as well as cable and satellite, is forecast to grow at an average rate of 6 per cent to $206.8 billion.
By contrast, newspaper and magazine publishing will see much lower average growth rates, at 2.4 per cent and 2.8 per cent respectively.
Recorded music was the only sector forecast to see revenues drop on average for the period, at a rate of 0.2 per cent, fueled by the effect of music piracy in the next three years.
The music industry was also expected to lose out to spending on video games, where a robust annual growth rate of 11 per cent, to $35.8 billion, was forecast.
