Asia is likely to sprint ahead of the rest of the world in 2003, but the lingering uncertainty of a Middle East war and slowing US economy can derail the region's growth engine, a top International Monetary Fund official said on Wednesday in Singapore.
Excluding Japan, the region is projected to post a six per cent increase in economic output this year which will make it the fastest growing geographical area in the world, said David Burton, the IMF's Asia-Pacific director.
Last year, the region's real gross domestic product rose more than 6 per cent due largely to an 8 per cent expansion in China, he said.
But the global economy, and particularly Asia, still remains heavily influenced by the United States, and any deterioration in the world's biggest economy will have widespread effect, Burton warned.
"Turning to 2003, prospects for the region will depend significantly on developments in the global economy about which there is considerable uncertainty," Burton said in a luncheon speech.
"Global recovery remains heavily dependent on developments in the US, and if US growth were to falter there is no obvious candidate to take up the slack," he said.
"Moreover, growth in the advanced economies has slowed in recent months, and forward-looking indicators are not particularly encouraging."
Still, the IMF said it was optimistic the region would be able to withstand an external shock since policymakers in most of the economies have already implemented some measures to boost growth.
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