The outbreak of bird flu is estimated to have caused an 8 per cent drop in global trade in poultry products, besides pushing up prices by over 30 per cent in the past year and a half.
It has also resulted in reduction in poultry meat supplies and trade diversion as countries scramble to procure products from disease-free sources.
This has been revealed in a special report on the trade impact of the avian influenza outbreak prepared by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation.
The report has cautioned the global poultry business against more market shocks as the disease continues to move from Asia in a westward direction, reaching close to the European region.
Many countries have banned the import of poultry products from the disease-hit regions. This has caused the domestic poultry product prices in the flu-hit countries to decline as exportable supplies moved back into local markets.
The FAO has estimated that the curbs on exports from bird flu infected countries had contributed to a 30 per cent rise in global prices.
The price impact on poultry has, in fact, been additionally aggravated by shortages of other meat, especially beef.
North America, which normally accounts for about a quarter of the world beef trade, is now facing a ban on exports due to fears about the dreaded mad cow disease of animals.
The global poultry trade is reckoned by the FAO to have dropped by an unprecedented eight per cent in 2004-05.
The bulk of the decline is accounted for by the drop in export of fresh and chilled poultry products from Asian exporters, especially Thailand and China. The total Asian exports, which exceeded 1.8 million tonnes in 2003-04, fell to less than one million tonnes in 2004-05.
Much greater market shocks could be in store in case the bird flu spreads to the major poultry producing countries of the European Union, which, together, account for 13 per cent of the global output and exports. The international poultry prices could move further up sharply in case of a ban on imports from the EU.
The EU ships annually about one million tonnes of fresh, chilled and frozen poultry products, valued at over $ 1 billion, to more than 150 markets. Nearly three-quarters of these shipments are destined for Russia (23 per cent), the middle east (27 per cent ) and the developing countries in Africa (26 per cent).
The EU also imports about 500,000 tonnes of frozen fillets and other chicken products.
Referring to the likely shift from the consumption of poultry products to other sources of protein, the FAO report points out that such a trend will only be temporary.
The risk communication strategies will ensure that consumers are made aware of the fact that the risk of bird flu transmission through poultry consumption was minimal.
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