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Rediff.com  » Business » Crisil pegs down GDP growth to 7.5%

Crisil pegs down GDP growth to 7.5%

Source: PTI
October 10, 2011 15:55 IST
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Indian flagLeading ratings agency Crisil on Monday joined others in revising downward the country's growth forecast a tad to 7.5 per cent for this fiscal, citing the weak global economic fundamentals and lack of reforms coupled with the repeated rate hikes on the domestic front.

The agency had in May projected an economic growth between 7.7 and 8 per cent for this fiscal and Monday's revision comes within a week of rival Fitch Ratings, and Citigroup revising the same to 7.5 per cent from 7.7.

"The growth forecast has been scaled down in view of the deteriorating global economic scenario and the grim investment climate in the country on account of the policy environment," Crisil said in a statement.

The domestic economy had clocked 8.5 per cent growth last fiscal, on the back of which the government had first projected a 9-plus per cent growth in the Budget but revised it  downwards to 8.2 per cent recently following the worsening of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis as well as the fear of a double-dip in the US.

The agency said the slowdown in advanced countries has been 'sharper than expected" but maintained that its new estimates are based on the assumption that there will be sharp slowdown in such economies, but not a recession.

On the domestic front, the report blamed lack of domestic policy reforms coupled with the repeated rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India, as factors hurting growth prospects.

The monetary authority has hiked its key rates a record 12 times over the past 19 months in its bid to tame the uncomfortably high wholesale price index number, which stood at 9.78 per cent for August.

The ratings agency also upped its wholesale price index or headline inflation average forecast for FY12 to 9.1 per cent from the earlier 8-8.5 per cent.

It also said the government will not be able to maintain its fiscal deficit target of 4.6 percent and expected the crucial number to go up to 5.2 per cent of the GDP.

However, on the current account deficit, it maintained its forecast of government being able to keep it at 2.6 per cent.

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