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A good balance of economics & politics March 01, 2008 This morning's editorial provided a useful set of criteria by which to evaluate the budget - fiscal discipline, growth sustainability, inclusiveness, anticipation of risks and threats and, finally, political impact. From the growth perspective, the reduced excise tax rates will provide a stimulus to growth by lowering prices and giving the Reserve Bank of India [Get Quote] a little more room to soften its stance on interest rates. This will be reinforced by the expansion of the rural safety net in the form of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme throughout the country. The inclusiveness agenda has been advanced in a number of ways. Significant increases in expenditure commitments through the government's flagship schemes in the education and health sectors represent the first level of this agenda. The Budget has attempted to address some key looming threats by allowing for a 0.5 per cent of GDP cushion in the fiscal deficit, which will at least partly accommodate the impact of the Sixth Pay Commission recommendations. The move towards transparency on several off-budget liabilities - oil bonds, fertilizer bonds and market stabilization bonds - is welcome and allows observers to make an accurate assessment of the overall fiscal situation. On the political dimension, there are sources of both comfort and discomfort. In the former category, the raising of the exemption limit for personal income tax, while going against the grain of tax base expansion, really imposes only short term costs, while pleasing a large number of people who are nudging up against the old limit. At the rate at which incomes are growing, they will enter the taxpayer class within a couple of years, comfortably after the elections. What causes significant discomfort is the loan waiver granted to farmers. This waiver was against the recommendations of an expert committee, which examined the issue. Even though the government may reimburse banks for the losses, as media reports are suggesting, the adverse long-term consequences of waivers and amnesties are well-known. The banking system is just coming through a rather grueling process of compliance with more stringent risk management norms and this measure clearly represents a setback. Overall, though, the Finance Minister made very good use of the economic environment and the resources available to address the needs of a large number of constituencies - rural, agricultural, the incumbent and aspiring middle class and, very importantly, his political colleagues and allies. And, it really didn't do any harm (apart from the increase in the short term capital gains tax rate, but who's complaining). Economics and politics are in reasonable balance. Powered by More Guest Columns | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||