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Why India needs a sovereign wealth fund December 29, 2007 India has accumulated $272 billion in foreign currency reserves but these are still being invested in low-risk OECD government securities and bank deposits yielding less than 5 per cent. India is now one of the few countries with large foreign asset holdings that have not created a sovereign wealth fund ("SWF") to enhance its investments. In fact, India is now the fourth largest holder of forex reserves and the eight largest holder of foreign assets in the world (SWF assets do not typically get counted in reserves). While the idea of investing reserves has many supporters in India, there remains strong opposition from within the Indian government. The three major arguments against creating an Indian SWF are:
The fact that India has a merchandise trade deficit of $65 bn and a current account deficit of $9.9 bn does make us different from other large reserve holders whose reserves have been built up from huge trade surpluses. However, the current account deficit as a percentage of GDP is manageable and if you add software and services income, the trade deficit is reduced to $32bn.
While there is no doubt that is should be made easier for Indians to invest abroad, the marginal return on capital in developing countries like India that have scarce capital and surplus labour should always be higher than in developed countries. Hence over the long term, we should continue to see capital move from developed countries to high-growth developing countries like India. Opening the capital account for outward investment may slow down net capital inflows but is unlikely to reverse the process. This means that the RBI will, therefore, have to continue to accumulate foreign currency to prevent more appreciation in the rupee, which will further increase the reserves and the need to have an appropriate investment framework.
A very valid concern, given governance in India and the scale of funds involved, however, one that can be mitigated through designing the fund correctly and limiting the amount of funds available. In order to minimise this risk, the fund should have the sole objective of maximising returns and the structure should be designed to minimise government interference, increase transparency and enhance accountability. Norway has already set up a good template for its fund that has now in effect become the gold standard for other SWFs. None of the arguments above are reasons enough to justify the huge loss in income that Indian citizens are bearing. In fact, India's reluctance to form an SWF is more symptomatic of a fundamental malaise affecting Indian policymaking.
While this government may not have the political capital to implement this, it is essential that work on designing the fund starts now so that the proposal can be implemented when politically possible. Powered by More Guest Columns | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||