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India's key to earnings growth June 26, 2006 Let me try, in this piece, to revive the debate on the impact of industrial growth on employment. A couple of years back, when the manufacturing sector started looking up, many of us had argued that this would be a phase of "jobless recovery". This was quite evident from company balance sheets- although their top line was improving, their wage costs continued to drop. Domestic companies were rising to the challenge of globalisation by becoming leaner. Indian firms, across the board, were using voluntary retirement schemes to lighten their payrolls. In short, the up-tick in the manufacturing cycle was not manifesting in improved labour market conditions. Draconian labour laws incentivised capital-intensive, labour-shedding investments. Indian manufacturing was reviving but in defiance of the economy's comparative advantage, its abundance of labour. Of the various questions that are put to the sample of companies that are surveyed, there is one on whether their employment levels have risen over the previous month. For the last fourteen months or so, the index has been posting values of over around 52. The index is constructed in such a manner that a value over 50 suggests an overall increase in the variable, in this case employment. The greater the deviation from the level of 50, the greater is the improvement or deterioration in the variable. A persistent reading of 52 suggests that there is slow but steady increase in labour demand. The phase of large-scale labour-shedding seems to be over. They have also ensured that it is robust in the sense that it closely tracks more "established" variables like GDP and the index of industrial production. The sample of companies is incidentally surveyed every month. Indian companies seem confident of their business environment in the future and are willing to ramp up operations. The success of schemes like the VRS has also given them the confidence that if it comes to a crunch, they can streamline the work-force yet again. If indeed manufacturing employment continues to trend up, there could be a virtuous cycle with more incomes in the worker's hands, greater demand for products and a further fillip to the manufacturing sector. In fact, if the manufacturing sector is indeed hiring more, it is likely to create a broader demand base and actually help sustain the momentum of growth. I am, by no means, making a claim that the overhaul of labour regulations does not deserve top priority on our policy agenda. Even if I were to go by my limited sample, the rate of employment creation is, at best, sedate. If this is to accelerate, companies (particularly those setting up new projects) need a strong incentive to actually exploit India's labour advantage. I sincerely hope that the move to relax labour laws in the new special economic zones or the tentative plans of allowing contract work in select industries are not jettisoned due to political imperatives. The author is chief economist, ABN AMRO. The views here are personal. Powered by More Guest Columns
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