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Why the Kenyans are smiling so widely
M J Manohar Rao and Srinivas Bhogle |
February 25, 2003 12:01 IST
The victory against Sri Lanka has opened up an amazing possibility for Kenya, as we shall discover as we go on.
We will actually discuss the big question: What's going to happen in Group B?
Assuming that rain will not be a spoiler, it might all boil down to the two crucial matches: Sri Lanka (SL) vs West Indies (WI) and SL vs South Africa (SA).
There are four possible outcomes in these matches:
- SL defeat WI and then SL defeat SA
- SL lose to both WI and SA
- SL defeat WI but lose to SA
- SL lose to WI and defeat SA.
Let's consider each of scenarios A, B, C and D. In each case we suppose that Kenya defeat Bangladesh and that rain does not affect the more likely result in the remaining group matches.
Scenario A (SL defeat both WI and SA)
Likely points tally: SL 20, NZ 16, Kenya 16, WI 14 and SA 12.
Then SL go through with NZ and Kenya to the Super Six and -- most amazingly -- Kenya advance with 8 additional.points! SL will carry 4 additional points and NZ 0 points. The teams in Group A would simply love this scenario.
Summary: Kenya (8+), SL (4+) and NZ (0+) in the Super Six. Best scenario for Kenya, worst for SA and WI.
Scenario B (SL lose to both WI and SA)
Likely points tally: SL 12, NZ 16, Kenya 16, WI 18 and SA 16.
Then WI will advance to the Super Six, but it will be a three-way tie between SA, NZ and Kenya. Since NZ have defeated SA who have defeated Kenya who have 'defeated' NZ, the net run rate (NRR) will enter the calculation and the team with the lowest NRR will go out. At the moment SA have a NRR of +2.15, NZ of –0.09 and Kenya of –0.40. So Kenya will probably go out. In this case NZ, having defeated both WI and SA will advance to the Super Six with 8 additional points while WI will have 4 points.
Summary: NZ (8+),WI (4+) and SA (0+) in the Super Six Best scenario for NZ, worst for SL.
Scenario C (SL defeat WI but lose to SA)
Likely points tally: SL 16, NZ 16, SA 16, Ken 16 and WI 14.
This will sadly mean the elimination of WI and a four-way points tie between the other teams. Between SL, SA, NZ and Kenya, Kenya and SA have two 'wins' (respectively over SL, NZ and SL, Kenya) and they go through to the Super Six. NZ and SL have one win each (respectively over SA and NZ), but in their one-to-one match SL have defeated NZ. So NZ get eliminated. SA go up with 8 additional points and Kenya with 4 points.
Summary: SA (8+), Kenya (4+) and SL (0+) in the Super Six Best scenario for SA, worst for NZ and WI.
Scenario D (SL lose to WI but defeat SA)
Likely points tally: SL 16, NZ 16, WI 18, Kenya 16 and SA 12.
WI then advance to the Super Six, and SA will be eliminated straightaway. But which are the other teams that join WI? The first to go up will be Kenya since they have defeated SL and 'defeated' NZ. The other team will be SL since they have defeated NZ. In this scenario WI will advance with 8 additional points and Kenya with 4 points.
Summary: WI (8+), Kenya (4+) and SL (0+) in the Super Six. Best scenario for WI, worst for NZ and WI.
So SL have little to worry unless they lose both the big matches, although seems likely that their big dream of advancing with 8 additional points is gone. Kenya are really smiling widely because they advance in three out of the four scenarios, in one instance with 8 additional points! NZ must be grumpy since only two of the four scenarios are favourable (although Scenario B is excellent). They might really rue their decision not to go to Kenya. As for SA, they must again dearly wish that SL defeat WI. For WI, a single victory over SL can really bring in the riches; a defeat will, however, doom them.
It is amazing how one result can so dramatically change the fortunes of so many teams playing the World Cup. Group B continues to be full of surprises!