After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
The heightened global uncertainty due to the US "reciprocal tariffs" on India may cause near-term corrections and market turbulence, but the long-term outlook remains constructive, market experts said on Thursday. The US has announced 27 per cent reciprocal tariffs on India, citing high import duties imposed by New Delhi on American goods.
From the Sensex pack, Zomato, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Titan, Power Grid, Hindustan Unilever, Tech Mahindra and ITC were among the gainers. On the other hand, Reliance Industries, Nestle India, Tata Motors, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the laggards.
Outflows are likely to continue, experts say, till such time as the markets see a significant correction.
'The market's nervousness ahead of anticipated US tariffs has led to a significant downturn in Indian equities.'
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
The recent global fund flow data suggests that one big cycle of foreign fund allocation into India may have come to an end and the trend could remain soft for a longer time, according to a report by Elara Capital. The note said last week's outflow of $302 million from India's dedicated funds is the largest since June 2022.
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 4,285 crore from Indian equities in the first three trading days of the month driven by apprehensions ahead of the third-quarter earnings season and high valuations of domestic stocks. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
Since October, FPIs have offloaded Indian equities worth Rs 2.1 trillion.
Industry players said the sharp sell-off in February forced many companies to put off their listing plans
Among Sensex scrips, Bharti Airtel, Titan, NTPC, State Bank of India, ITC, Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors were the major laggards. Adani Ports, Infosys, Axis Bank, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra and IndusInd Bank were among the gainers.
Gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) witnessed a net outflow of Rs 248 crore in February, making it the second consecutive month of withdrawals as investors preferred equities over other segments on record SIP flows. Net outflows from the gold ETFs were at Rs 452 crore in the month of January. Prior to that, the asset class had seen a net investment of Rs 313 crore, according to the data of Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). Despite the outflows, the category witnessed an increase in net assets under management (AUM) of gold ETFs to Rs 18,727 crore at the end of February from Rs 17,839 crore in January-end.
The equity benchmark indices posted their strongest weekly gains in years, driven by bargain hunting and optimism over a reversal in foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows. The Sensex rose 558 points, or 0.7 per cent, on Friday to close at 76,906, while the Nifty 50 gained 160 points to end at 23,350. Over the past five sessions, both indices advanced around 4.3 per cent - marking the Sensex's best weekly performance since July 22, 2022, and the Nifty 50's strongest rally since February 5, 2021.
'The market's sharp decline recently has shaken the confidence of retail investors, leading to increased selling.'
From the Sensex pack, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Adani Ports, ICICI Bank, Zomato and UltraTech Cement were among the biggest gainers. However, ITC, Nestle, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
Among 30 Sensex shares, Zomato tanked over 5 per cent. Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindustan Unilever and ITC were the biggest laggards. Bharti Airtel was the only gainer among Sensex scrips.
Foreign investors pulled out a massive Rs 94,000 crore (around $11.2 billion) from the Indian stock market in October, making it the worst-ever month in terms of outflows, triggered by the elevated valuation of domestic equities and attractive valuations of Chinese stocks. Before this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. The latest outflow came after a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September 2024.
Following alterations in the tax structure, mutual fund (MF) schemes that invest in overseas securities have experienced a sharp decline in inflows. In the first five months of 2023-24 (FY24), international MF schemes have received an average monthly gross inflow of only Rs 270 crore, compared to Rs 490 crore during the same period in the previous year. This decline persists despite nearly all fund houses opening subscriptions for such schemes, with higher redemptions creating headroom for fresh investments.
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Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Tata Motors, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle and Maruti were also among the major laggards. HDFC Bank emerged as the only gainer from the pack.
Foreign investors were net sellers of domestic debt in October for the first time since the official inclusion of Indian government bonds in the JP Morgan bond indices, with net outflow worth Rs 4,697 crore. This marked the second instance in the current calendar year where foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers in a month.
The net inflows into active equity mutual fund (MF) schemes registered more than a twofold month-on-month rise in August, crossing Rs 20,000 crore, the highest in five months. This rise in net inflows was boosted by an 18 per cent growth in gross investments, driven by a record Rs 15,800 crore inflow through the systematic investment plan (SIP) route and Rs 5,000 crore collected by seven new fund offers (NFOs) in the active equity space, reveals data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). Moreover, redemptions moderated in August, declining by 19 per cent to Rs 24,580 crore, after staying elevated in the previous three months owing to profit booking.
Equity mutual funds attracted Rs 39,688 crore in January, driven by sharp inflow in small and midcap schemes, even as market volatilities continued. However, this was 3.5 per cent lower than the net inflow of Rs 41,156 crore registered in December.
Among the 11 equity sub-categories, thematic funds received the highest net inflows at Rs 9,017 crore, followed by smallcap funds at Rs 5,721 crore and flexicap funds at Rs 5,698 crore.
Equity markets this week will take cues from global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and quarterly earnings, with TCS kick-starting the results calendar on Thursday, analysts said.
In a first, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced that it will conduct daily variable rate repo (VRR) auctions on all working days in Mumbai, until further notice. The daily auctions, aimed at easing the current liquidity tightness in the banking system, will begin on Friday, with a notified amount of Rs 50,000 crore.
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said the exchange rate policy has remained consistent over the years and the central bank does not target any 'specific level or band' of the rupee, which slipped to an all-time low of 87.59 to a US dollar. On Thursday, the rupee plunged 16 paise to close at a record low of 87.59 against the American currency. "I would like to mention here that the Reserve Bank's exchange rate policy has remained consistent over the years.
Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, Larsen & Toubro, UltraTech Cement, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Tata Motors were among the gainers. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 4,486.41 crore on Tuesday, according to exchange data.
Global funds have pulled out Rs 1.54 trillion from domestic stocks in fiscal 2024 - 25 (FY25), the highest-ever outflow recorded so far, according to the data compiled by Business Standard. The last time the global funds exited Indian shores in droves was back in 2022, when they sold a net Rs 1.41 in the backdrop of Covid-19.
618 companies were part of the billion dollar club when the markets reached all-time highs on September 26, 2024. That number has fallen to 500 following a $1 trillion wipeout in India's market capitalisation amid relentless selling by FPIs.
From the 30 blue-chip stocks, Titan, Asian Paints, Nestle, Tech Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Zomato, Larsen & Toubro and Bajaj Finserv were among the laggards. Adani Ports, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti, Sun Pharma, Bharti Airtel and Tata Motors were among the gainers.
If Beijing succeeds in this multipronged effort to challenge the current dominant power, it will have not just economic but political and security consequences. There is no let-up in the South China Sea nor any de-escalation moves on the India-China border. This portends to ominous signalling from Beijing, observes China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 22,420 crore from the Indian equity market so far this month, owing to high domestic stock valuations, increasing allocations to China, and the rising US dollar as well as Treasury yields. With this sell-off, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have recorded a total outflow of Rs 15,827 crore in 2024 so far. As liquidity tightens, FPI inflows are expected to remain subdued in the short term.
India's stock markets are experiencing a shift in investor sentiment, with a 30 per cent surge in Chinese stocks, prompting investors to move money from domestic markets to China. This reversal of fortunes is a notable change from the past three years, where China's losses benefited India.
After two weeks of buying, FPIs turned net sellers in Indian equities this week, with a net withdrawal of Rs 976 crore amid a strengthening US dollar and steady rise in US 10-year bond yields, impacting investor sentiment. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) began the week on a positive note, investing Rs 3,126 crore in equities during the first two trading sessions (December 16-20).
Equity markets will take cues from the US tariff related developments, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors this week, analysts said.
Among Sensex shares, Zomato, NTPC, Adani Ports, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Tech Mahindra and Axis Bank were the major laggards. UltraTech Cement and HCL Technologies were the only gainers.
From the 30 blue-chip stocks, Power Grid, State Bank of India, Titan, Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement, Adani Ports and Infosys were among the laggards. In contrast, Tata Motors, ITC, Nestle, Tata Consultancy Services, NTPC and Zomato were among the gainers.
'Market corrections are a natural part of investing, so it's essential to remain focused on long-term financial goals.'
To ease the potential liquidity stress, the Reserve Bank on Friday slashed Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points to 4 per cent, a move that would unlock Rs 1.16 lakh crore bank funds. The RBI on May 4, 2022 had raised CRR to 4.5 per cent from 4 per cent in an off-cycle Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, with effect from May 21 the same year.
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