The narrative on China is changing post the recent stimulus measures, and it will be hard for global investors to ignore the Chinese markets.
Petrol and diesel prices are unlikely to be increased despite firming raw material costs because of upcoming general elections next year, Moody's Investors Service said. Three state-owned fuel retailers -- Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) -- which control roughly 90 per cent of the market, have kept petrol and diesel prices on freeze for a record 18 months in a row. This is despite the raw material (crude oil) cost surging last year, leading to heavy losses in first half of 2022-23 fiscal year before easing oil prices propelled them to profitability.
The rupee has depreciated by 0.6 per cent so far in the current financial year.
Savings for Indian refiners from purchasing Russian oil have decreased to a third of what they were in the years following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which triggered global crises, sanctions, and discounted Russian oil seeking buyers. Despite this, savings from importing cheap Russian oil were significant enough to help Indian refiners tide over frozen petrol and diesel pump prices.
The gold and crude oil prices, which have risen to records this year, may ease a little if the US central bank Federal Reserve cut rates at its meeting on Tuesday, an analyst said.The Fed is scheduled to meet today to consider revision of interest rates. The US banking sector regulator has already cut the rate at which it lends to banks by 0.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent at an emergency weekend meeting on Monday.
The US Fed interest rate decision, ongoing quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data and FII trading activity are the major triggers that will drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Investors would also track global market trends and the movement in global oil prices for further cues. "This week, the focus will shift to global cues, particularly the US markets," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd said.
The escalation of conflict in the West Asian region is expected to push already high logistics costs besides hurting trade in sectors such as oil, electronics and agriculture, according to exporters. They said that insurance costs for exports to the countries directly involved in the war could also go up, which will impact Indian exporters' working capital. Think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) stated that the conflict is already hurting India's trade with countries like Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon.
Reliance Industries Ltd on Monday reported an almost flat March quarter net profit, amid a recovery in its core oil and petrochemicals business and sustained momentum across the consumer-facing telecom and retail businesses. RIL's net profit stood at Rs 18,951 crore, or Rs 28.01 per share, in the January-March quarter of the 2023-24 fiscal as compared to Rs 19,299 crore, or Rs 28.52 a share, a year ago, according to a company's stock exchange filing.
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive because it raises the cost for imports for most of the world's countries
India imports about 25 million tonnes of oil from Iraq each year.
Noting that oil prices had gone down after the BJP-led government came to power in May 2014, before they went up, Prasad said it is a problem whose solution is not in its hands.
This is the second hike in excise duty in less than two weeks as the government looks to make use of the slump in oil prices to shore up resources.
'We expect market consolidation and recommend buying during market dips.'
The revised projection comes after a 17% rise in the April-June.
The government has to take a call on reducing or retaining the excise rate.
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
Carter was in politics, but not a politician, certainly not a transactional politician, points out Shreekant Sambrani.
India's exports registered a steepest decline in 13-month falling 9.3 per cent in August to $34.71 billion due to global economic uncertainties, while the trade deficit soared to a 10-month of $29.65 billion. According to the government data released on Tuesday, imports increased by 3.3 per cent to $64.36 billion, which is a record high, due to a significant jump in the inbound shipments of gold and silver.
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
US crude was down 25 cents at $52.08.
'With China falling out of favour, India is where investors see the demographic and digital dividend apart from the benefits of reforms playing out.' 'Your prime minister has also done a great job of sharing this story with the world.'
Stocks in the automotive, financial, cement, metal, and hotel sectors are likely to benefit if the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comes back to power for a third time. The key investment themes have been identified after analysing the Sankalp Patra - the party's manifesto for the next five years - released on Sunday.
Shares of low-cost airline IndiGo hit record high on the bourses soon after reports of pilot crisis at Vistara emerged. The development also saw airfares surge by around 25 per cent on select routes. Shares of IndiGo hit a lifetime high of ~3,68.5 on April 2, 2024, and has gained 2.4 per cent on the bourses in April.
Dr Nagesh Kumar, one of the three new MPC members, wanted the MPC to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
Top government officials in New Delhi have started discussions with stakeholders ranging from shipping and container companies to export promotion councils to understand the impact of the Iran-Israel tensions and plan ahead. Inter-ministerial talks are also being lined up amid the crisis situation in West Asia, sources confirmed. While the crude flows are not directly under any threat, elevated oil prices remain a concern, according to officials.
Centre and state governments are steadily increasing excise duties and value-added tax
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday invited President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to visit India and the Ukrainian leader said he would be happy to travel to the 'great' country.
Fiscal pressure for the Indian economy is gradually rising, suggested analysts at Jefferies in a recent note, as oil prices (Brent) - which are close to the $100 a barrel mark - continue to climb ahead of a busy election calendar. They added that the sharp rally in the equity markets during the last few months has made valuations costly. As a result, Jefferies expects the Indian markets to remain choppy in the near term.
Equity markets will take cues from global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, while in the latter part of the week the first quarter earnings from IT majors TCS and HCL Technologies would guide investor sentiments, analysts said. Markets may consolidate after the record rally last week, experts added. "On the domestic front, the Q1 earnings season begins this week. Key companies such as TCS and HCL Technologies will release their earnings on July 11 and 12, 2024, respectively.
