Trump's tariff threats spooks markets; Sensex down 106 points
Following a more than 15 per cent surge in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty 50 from this year's lows, the spread between the 10-year government security (G-sec) and the Nifty earnings has approached the danger zone of 2 percentage points (ppt). At present, the G-sec yield is roughly 7.09 per cent, while the Nifty earnings are 5.12 per cent. As a result, the spread works out to 1.98 ppt, ever so slightly below the danger mark of 2 ppt.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) has withdrawn its decision to change the expiry day for Bank Nifty derivatives contracts from Thursday to Friday. The move follows a "request" from the BSE, which settles its Sensex and Bankex derivatives contracts on Friday. The proposed change in Bank Nifty settlement was scheduled to be effective from July 6 with the first weekly expiry on July 14.
Buying stocks during a dip, says Amar Nandu, research analyst, Samco Securities, can lead to higher compounding returns when the uptrend begins.
Retail investors have been the hardest hit in the recent market downturn, with stocks where they hold over 20% falling 45% from their 52-week highs.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
Benchmark BSE Sensex tanked 824 points to settle at a fresh seven-month low on Monday following heavy selling in IT and oil & gas shares amid weak global trends. The 30-share BSE barometer plunged by 824.29 points or 1.08 per cent to close at 75,366.17 with 23 of its constituents ending lower and seven with gains. During the day the index moved between a high of 75,925.72 and a low of 75,267.59.
Among the 30-share Sensex blue-chip pack, Bharti Airtel, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, UltraTech Cement, HCL Technologies, and Power Grid, were the biggest gainers. Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, JSW Steel and Bajaj Finserv were the laggards.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Adani Ports, Tech Mahindra, Titan, Maruti, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel and Reliance Industries were the biggest gainers. NTPC, Hindustan Unilever, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank and Larsen & Toubro were among the laggards.
From the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Infosys, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, ITC, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Titan, Reliance Industries and Nestle were the major winners. Hindustan Unilever, Power Grid, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, State Bank of India, Asian Paints and Wipro were the laggards.
All sectoral indices ended lower. BSE Telecommunication tanked 2.18 per cent, metal (1.77 per cent), auto (1.70 per cent), energy (1.64 per cent), oil & gas (1.59 per cent), commodities (1.39 per cent) and financial services (1.37 per cent) were the major laggards.
Back home, the Nifty IT index - a gauge of the performance of the IT stocks on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) that has closely mirrored the performance of NASDAQ over the past few years - has lost nearly 2 per cent in CY23.
The ideal time to invest in sector funds, is during a downturn so that investors can capitalise on a turnaround in 1.5 to 2 years.
After a strong run in the midcap and smallcap indices, which surged 46 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during Samvat 2080, analysts suggest that the rally in these segments may pause to catch its breath in Samvat 2081.
Global factors and FII activity will dictate trends in domestic equity markets this week while assembly poll results of Maharashtra and Jharkhand may impact stocks on Monday, say analysts. Stock markets witnessed a spirited recovery on Friday with benchmark Sensex and Nifty notching the best single-day gains in more than five months and offering relief after weeks of correction.
'Retail investors, who had not seen such a massive correction in the SMID universe since COVID-19, are witnessing something like this for the first time. Panic profit booking may continue.'
'The economy is clearly at a very soft spot, and earnings growth is disappointing every day.' 'After three great years, the Indian economy has hit a rough patch.'
State Bank of India (SBI) and Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) will see maximum inflows from passive trackers on account of the quarterly rebalancing exercise of the National Stock Exchange Nifty Bank Index. IndusInd Bank and AU Small Finance Bank could see maximum outflows. The rejig of the Nifty CPSE Index will result in inflows in Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, NTPC, and Coal India and maximum outflows in Bharat Electronics, according to Brian Freitas, a New Zealand-based analyst with Periscope Analytics.
In an eventful week ahead, stock market investors will take cues from major events like the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the upcoming Union Budget and Q3 earnings, analysts said.
Among the Sensex firms, Infosys, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, HDFC, Tata Consultancy Services, Sun Pharma and ICICI Bank were the biggest winners. On the other hand, PowerGrid, NTPC, Nestle, UltraTech Cement, State Bank of India and ITC were among the laggards.
Bajaj Finance was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 2.70 per cent, followed by Power Grid, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, ITC, Bajaj Finserv, Infosys, Nestle, Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, Titan and Axis Bank. Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti and State Bank of India were among the laggards.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Adani Ports, JSW Steel, IndusInd Bank, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the biggest laggards. Tata Motors, NTPC, Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints and Infosys were the gainers.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined for the second straight session on Friday following selling in banking, financial and select IT shares amid a weak trend in global markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex dropped by 125.65 points or 0.19 per cent to close at 66,282.74 as 16 of its constituents fell and 14 advanced. The index opened lower and fell further by around 513 points to the day's low of 65,895.41 in morning deals.
'It is like a chicken-and-egg situation.' 'All these product tweaks are innovative, but traders won't move unless there is liquidity.' 'And liquidity cannot be generated until traders move.'
From the Sensex pack, Larsen & Toubro jumped 4.26 per cent to emerge as the biggest gainer, followed by IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra, State Bank of India, HCL Technologies, Power Grid, NTPC, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HDFC Bank and Wipro. Mahindra & Mahindra, Infosys, UltraTech Cement and Hindustan Unilever were the major laggards.
'Invest only in stocks of those companies that deliver on earnings and there is earnings visibility too for the next few quarters.'
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