A new report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL) indicates that inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy have become more significant drivers of gold prices than traditional geopolitical conflicts, with markets increasingly focusing on these economic factors.
Benchmark lending rates unchanged with repo rate at 5.25%
* Repo rate reduced by 25bps to 5.25 pc; * 4th rate cut, totalling 125 bps, since February 2025; * MPC also decided to continue with neutral stance; * GDP growth forecast for FY26 raised to 7.3 pc from 6.8 pc;
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, marking the first reduction in five years. The central bank also projected GDP growth for fiscal year 2026 at 6.7 percent and inflation to come down to 4.2 percent in FY26 from 4.8 percent in FY25. The RBI said the global economic backdrop remains challenging but the Indian economy continues to remain strong and resilient.
RBI cuts GDP growth projection to 6.6 per cent for current financial year, from earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent.
Even if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold interest rates in the October meeting, it acknowledged the scope for further rate cuts while waiting for the impact of the past steps to play out.
Frequent weather shocks caused by climate change pose challenges for the monetary policy as well as downside risks to economic growth, a Reserve Bank report said. Global average temperatures are on a rise, with accompanying increase in extreme weather events (EWE), and the economic and social impact of global warming is becoming increasingly evident, said RBI's Monetary Policy Report - April 2024. The report said that climate change has increased the frequency and ferocity of weather shocks, posing challenges for monetary policy.
Benchmark interest rate hiked by 50 basis points to 3-year high at 5.90 per cent. Economic growth projection for FY23 cut to 7% from 7.2% estimated in August. GDP expected to grow at 6.3% in September quarter, 4.6% each in December and March quarters.
'We never waste a crisis. There will be learning and the supervisory tools will get better with each episode.'
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday hiked key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation.
The RBI is fully aware that the high-cost loans and high indebtedness of the borrowers could pose financial stability risks, if not addressed by these NBFCs. Governor Shaktikanta Das has issued a stern warning, saying the RBI is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take appropriate action, if necessary, if the culprits don't opt for self-correction. Watch out for some action, soon, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
With inflation comfortably below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent median target and likely to undershoot its 3.7 per cent projection for 2025-26 (FY26), there is room for the monetary policy easing cycle to be sustained, the Finance Ministry said on Monday. The comments, featured in the ministry's Monthly Economic Review for June 2025, assume significance ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) scheduled to begin from August 5.
Declared semi-annually (i.e. March and September), the Monetary Policy takes stock of the economy's liquidity and inflationary conditions and employs the necessary tools to revive it.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged in the August monetary policy review, with economists citing elevated inflation risks and the pending closure of the FCNR(B) deposit scheme as key factors. Most anticipate a 'Neutral' policy stance but with a hawkish tone due to geopolitical tensions, high crude oil prices, and an uneven monsoon.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that the central bank is closely monitoring whether the supply shock from the West Asia conflict will lead to a generalised price rise, potentially necessitating monetary policy action.
Members of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have indicated that interest rate hikes may be necessary sooner rather than later, as headline inflation is projected to rise from its current benign levels in the coming months, according to the minutes of the August review.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed almost flat in choppy trade as investors remained cautious due to ongoing uncertainty in West Asia, relentless foreign fund outflows, and anticipation of the RBI's monetary policy decision.
Gold and silver prices are anticipated to maintain a positive trajectory in the coming week, with market volatility expected to remain high due to ongoing developments in West Asia and upcoming global economic data, particularly the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes.
Analysts predict that geopolitical developments, particularly surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the US-Iran standoff, along with crude oil prices, will be the primary factors influencing stock market movement in the coming week. Investors will also monitor foreign institutional flows and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for signals on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.
Rs 5,000 crore additional liquidity facility to be provided by the National Housing Bank to boost liquidity in housing sector, the RBI said.
The Reserve Bank of India has marginally increased its GDP forecast for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent while slightly lowering the inflation projection to 5 per cent. The central bank noted that while domestic economic activity shows resilience, global turbulence, particularly re-escalating conflicts and volatile oil prices, continues to pose risks to the inflation outlook.
Benchmark policy rate unchanged at 6.75 per cent.
India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation marginally eased to 9.78 per cent in July 2026, down from 9.87 per cent in June, primarily due to a cooling in the prices of fuel, power, and food items, marking the first month-on-month drop under the new 2022-23 base year.
Analysts predict that the Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, the evolving situation in West Asia involving the US-Iran conflict, and crude oil prices will be the primary factors influencing investor sentiment in the Indian stock market this week.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced plans to launch long-lasting polymer currency notes by the next financial year. He also discussed the central bank's data-dependent approach to interest rates, its focus on aligning inflation with the 4 per cent target, and the orderly trajectory of the rupee amidst geopolitical tensions.
Indian benchmark indices closed mixed, with the Sensex gaining 113.61 points to 78,079.96 and the Nifty falling 40.10 points to 24,395.85, as elevated crude prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East made investors cautious.
Indian benchmark indices closed mixed, with the Sensex gaining 113.61 points to 78,079.96 and the Nifty falling 40.10 points to 24,395.85, as elevated crude prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East made investors cautious.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty saw a significant rebound in early trade, driven by softer-than-expected US inflation data which has reinforced expectations of a less aggressive monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve, providing relief to global risk assets.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday stressed that the monetary policy must remain actively disinflationary to ensure that the decline in inflation from its peak of 7.44 per cent in July continues smoothly. Addressing the Kautilya Economic Conclave 2023, he also said price stability and financial stability complement each other and it has been an endeavour at RBI to manage both efficiently. Retail inflation declined to a three-month low of 5.02 per cent annually in September on account of moderation in vegetables and fuel prices, and was back within the Reserve Bank's comfort level.
Short-term lending (Repo) rate is unchanged at 8 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained its benchmark policy rate at 5.25 per cent for the fourth consecutive meeting, prioritising clarity on inflation trends, particularly concerning energy costs and geopolitical developments.
Monetary Policy Committee keeps key interest rate (repo) unchanged at 4% for 7th consecutive time; Consequently, reverse repo rate too remains unchanged at 3.35%; Bank rate also remains same at 4.25%;
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, saw early gains, primarily driven by IT stocks, amidst expectations of a less aggressive monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve following softer inflation data. Global market trends and upcoming Q1 results are also influencing investor sentiment. Track Sensex, Nifty on july 16.
The fund said oil prices are still at double the levels recorded in end-2006, even after the 40 per cent fall in prices from the peak they reached in July this year. Food prices too are still above end-2006 levels. Because of this, fuel importing low-income countries will see their import bill increase by 3.2 per cent of their GDP, while food importing countries will spend additional amount equivalent to 0.8 per cent of GDP on food.
The highlights of RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das:
India's retail inflation rose to 4.38 per cent in June, driven primarily by costlier food items, pushing it above the Reserve Bank of India's median target of 4 per cent for the first time under the new series.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept key repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent in view of rising inflation and faint signs of economic growth amid gradual lifting of coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown. The central bank's newly-constituted monetary policy committee (MPC) began its three-day meeting on October 7 and maintained the stance as accommodative. It also kept the reverse repo rate unchanged at 3.35 per cent.
Analysts predict that crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions in West Asia, and upcoming inflation data will be the primary drivers of the Indian stock market this week, alongside foreign investor activity and domestic quarterly earnings.
The RBI has cut key rates to boost the economy.
