A new report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL) indicates that inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy have become more significant drivers of gold prices than traditional geopolitical conflicts, with markets increasingly focusing on these economic factors.
Benchmark lending rates unchanged with repo rate at 5.25%
* Repo rate reduced by 25bps to 5.25 pc; * 4th rate cut, totalling 125 bps, since February 2025; * MPC also decided to continue with neutral stance; * GDP growth forecast for FY26 raised to 7.3 pc from 6.8 pc;
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, marking the first reduction in five years. The central bank also projected GDP growth for fiscal year 2026 at 6.7 percent and inflation to come down to 4.2 percent in FY26 from 4.8 percent in FY25. The RBI said the global economic backdrop remains challenging but the Indian economy continues to remain strong and resilient.
RBI cuts GDP growth projection to 6.6 per cent for current financial year, from earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent.
Even if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold interest rates in the October meeting, it acknowledged the scope for further rate cuts while waiting for the impact of the past steps to play out.
State Bank of India's latest report highlights a 'chalk and cheese' divide in the Reserve Bank of India's recent policy communications, with the Monetary Policy Committee minutes showing a hawkish tone while the Governor's statements are more data-dependent, leading to market uncertainty regarding future interest rate hikes.
Frequent weather shocks caused by climate change pose challenges for the monetary policy as well as downside risks to economic growth, a Reserve Bank report said. Global average temperatures are on a rise, with accompanying increase in extreme weather events (EWE), and the economic and social impact of global warming is becoming increasingly evident, said RBI's Monetary Policy Report - April 2024. The report said that climate change has increased the frequency and ferocity of weather shocks, posing challenges for monetary policy.
Benchmark interest rate hiked by 50 basis points to 3-year high at 5.90 per cent. Economic growth projection for FY23 cut to 7% from 7.2% estimated in August. GDP expected to grow at 6.3% in September quarter, 4.6% each in December and March quarters.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday hiked key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation.
'We never waste a crisis. There will be learning and the supervisory tools will get better with each episode.'
The RBI is fully aware that the high-cost loans and high indebtedness of the borrowers could pose financial stability risks, if not addressed by these NBFCs. Governor Shaktikanta Das has issued a stern warning, saying the RBI is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take appropriate action, if necessary, if the culprits don't opt for self-correction. Watch out for some action, soon, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Declared semi-annually (i.e. March and September), the Monetary Policy takes stock of the economy's liquidity and inflationary conditions and employs the necessary tools to revive it.
With inflation comfortably below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent median target and likely to undershoot its 3.7 per cent projection for 2025-26 (FY26), there is room for the monetary policy easing cycle to be sustained, the Finance Ministry said on Monday. The comments, featured in the ministry's Monthly Economic Review for June 2025, assume significance ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) scheduled to begin from August 5.
India's wholesale price-based inflation (WPI) increased to 9.92 per cent in August, up from 9.78 per cent in July, primarily due to rising prices across food, manufactured items, and fuel and power sectors.
Analysts predict that developments in the West Asia conflict, crude oil prices, and upcoming US inflation data will be the primary factors influencing the Indian stock market next week, alongside foreign investor activity and global market trends.
Economists widely anticipate the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee will increase the repo rate by 50 basis points, likely split between the October and December meetings, as retail inflation is projected to peak at 6.1 per cent in the third quarter, exceeding the RBI's tolerance limit.
Rs 5,000 crore additional liquidity facility to be provided by the National Housing Bank to boost liquidity in housing sector, the RBI said.
Benchmark policy rate unchanged at 6.75 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged in the August monetary policy review, with economists citing elevated inflation risks and the pending closure of the FCNR(B) deposit scheme as key factors. Most anticipate a 'Neutral' policy stance but with a hawkish tone due to geopolitical tensions, high crude oil prices, and an uneven monsoon.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that the central bank is closely monitoring whether the supply shock from the West Asia conflict will lead to a generalised price rise, potentially necessitating monetary policy action.
'A balance had to be struck between the economic cost of taking action at this point against the need not to fall behind the curve in controlling inflation and anchoring inflation expectations.'
Short-term lending (Repo) rate is unchanged at 8 per cent.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday stressed that the monetary policy must remain actively disinflationary to ensure that the decline in inflation from its peak of 7.44 per cent in July continues smoothly. Addressing the Kautilya Economic Conclave 2023, he also said price stability and financial stability complement each other and it has been an endeavour at RBI to manage both efficiently. Retail inflation declined to a three-month low of 5.02 per cent annually in September on account of moderation in vegetables and fuel prices, and was back within the Reserve Bank's comfort level.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed almost flat in choppy trade as investors remained cautious due to ongoing uncertainty in West Asia, relentless foreign fund outflows, and anticipation of the RBI's monetary policy decision.
Monetary Policy Committee keeps key interest rate (repo) unchanged at 4% for 7th consecutive time; Consequently, reverse repo rate too remains unchanged at 3.35%; Bank rate also remains same at 4.25%;
The fund said oil prices are still at double the levels recorded in end-2006, even after the 40 per cent fall in prices from the peak they reached in July this year. Food prices too are still above end-2006 levels. Because of this, fuel importing low-income countries will see their import bill increase by 3.2 per cent of their GDP, while food importing countries will spend additional amount equivalent to 0.8 per cent of GDP on food.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept key repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent in view of rising inflation and faint signs of economic growth amid gradual lifting of coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown. The central bank's newly-constituted monetary policy committee (MPC) began its three-day meeting on October 7 and maintained the stance as accommodative. It also kept the reverse repo rate unchanged at 3.35 per cent.
The highlights of RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das:
The RBI has cut key rates to boost the economy.
Gold prices in India extended their losing streak, falling by Rs 1,500 to Rs 1,60,900 per 10 grams, influenced by hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and rising oil prices, which have increased expectations of an interest rate hike.
Members of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have indicated that interest rate hikes may be necessary sooner rather than later, as headline inflation is projected to rise from its current benign levels in the coming months, according to the minutes of the August review.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed marginally lower due to elevated crude oil prices, fresh US-Iran tensions, and expectations of a tighter monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve, despite strong domestic GDP growth.
Key lending rate (repo) raised by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent; 2nd increase in 5 weeks
Gold futures experienced their seventh consecutive daily decline, falling to Rs 1.5 lakh per 10 grams, driven by escalating military exchanges between the US and Iran which have pushed oil prices higher and intensified concerns over inflation and potential interest rate hikes.
The Reserve Bank on Tuesday said the soft monetary policy adopted by it to counter the impact of the global financial meltdown on the country will continue till the economic recovery is secured.
Gold and silver prices are anticipated to maintain a positive trajectory in the coming week, with market volatility expected to remain high due to ongoing developments in West Asia and upcoming global economic data, particularly the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes.
Analysts predict that geopolitical developments, particularly surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the US-Iran standoff, along with crude oil prices, will be the primary factors influencing stock market movement in the coming week. Investors will also monitor foreign institutional flows and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for signals on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.
Major laggards among Sensex constituents included Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Steel and ITC. Power Grid, UltraTech Cement, NTPC and Titan emerged as winners.
