In a memorable year for the equity market, Dalal Street investors added a whopping Rs 81.90 lakh crore to their wealth in 2023 as a raft of positive factors powered a stellar rally in stocks. Experts said India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, political stability owing to the BJP's success in recent elections in three significant states, optimistic corporate earnings outlook, signals from the US Federal Reserve about three prospective rate cuts next year and heavy retail investors participation played a major role in fuelling the stock market rally in 2023. In the year 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent.
Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday assumed charge as the Finance and Corporate Affairs Minister for the second consecutive term and is slated to soon present the final Budget for FY '25 that is going to set the tone for the Modi 3.0 government's priorities and direction for Viksit Bharat. Upon her reaching the North Block office, Sitharaman was greeted by Finance Secretary T V Somanathan and other top officials. Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary was also present. Chaudhary assumed charge on Tuesday evening.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors' sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said. In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24.
Improved monsoon, solid fiscal performance, and capex push by the public and private sectors augurs well for India's macroeconomic stability and growth, the finance ministry's monthly economic review for June 2023 said. But the report said that while India's domestic fundamentals remain strong, negative cross-border spillovers and adverse global developments could act as a deterrent in achieving the high growth path this financial year. "An improved matching of aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the Indian economy underpins the progress made in the control of domestic inflation and the consequent strengthening of macroeconomic stability," the review said.
Inflation data, global trends and foreign fund trading activity would guide equity market movement in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Stock markets would remain closed on Tuesday for Independence Day. "Macroeconomic indicators, rupee and FII activities will be pivotal in shaping market trends in the coming days.
Among the Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, Bharti Airtel, HCL Tech, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma and Tata Steel were the major gainers. On the other hand, Nestle, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank were among the laggards.
'We have essentially tried to set out an agenda for the next five years and it, in essence, represents the political commitment to that agenda.'
Smaller stocks have emerged as Dalal Street's favourites in 2023 that has turned out to be a "great year" for equities, rewarding investors with big gains, driven by optimism over the country's macroeconomic fundamentals and heavy retail investors participation. Experts said equity markets are experiencing a prolonged bull run and it is during this time that the midcap and smallcap segments tend to outshine their larger counterparts. Till December 22 this year, the BSE smallcap gauge has jumped 13,074.96 points or 45.20 per cent while the midcap index has surged 10,568.18 points or 41.74 per cent.
Adani Ports, HUL and L&T gained the most, while ICICI Bank, ONGC, GAIL and Tata Steel lost the most
Nearly 40 per cent of IITians sitting for placements in 2024 are yet to receive job offers, showing a doubling of the 'unplaced' in the last three years from 19 per cent in 2021-2022 to 38 per cent in 2023-2024.
Global rating agency Moody's on Monday raised India's growth forecast for 2024 calendar year to 6.8 per cent, from 6.1 per cent estimated earlier, on the back of 'stronger-than-expected' economic data of 2023 and fading global economic headwinds. India's real GDP expanded 8.4 per cent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2023, resulting in a 7.7 per cent growth for full-year 2023. Capital spending by the government and strong manufacturing activity have meaningfully contributed to the robust growth outcomes in 2023, Moody's Investors Service said.
Among the Sensex firms, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, Infosys and Bajaj Finserv were the major gainers. On the other hand, NTPC and Tech Mahindra were the laggards.
Passenger vehicle wholesales in India touched a record high of 42,18,746 units in the financial year 2023-24, registering a year-on-year growth of 8.4 per cent on the back of robust demand for utility vehicles, industry body SIAM said on Friday. As per the latest data issued by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), the overall passenger vehicle dispatches stood at 38,90,114 units in fiscal year 2022-23. Two-wheeler sales were up 13.3 per cent last fiscal at 1,79,74,365 units, as compared to 1,58,62,771 units in the financial year 2022-23.
Do not, however, enter expecting quick returns.
The Budget should use the extra RBI surplus to better effect, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
'The long-term impact of elections is minimal.'
The 50-share NSE Nifty slipped below the 8,200-mark to touch a low of 8,154.45, but settled at 8,170.80, down 90.95 points, or 1.10 per cent
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data and global trends will dictate terms in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) will also influence markets, they added. "The Indian market will be closely monitoring the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for June 6-8, 2023. Aside from that, market participants will be keeping an eye on the progress of monsoon," said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
'The success of one or two IPOs does not dictate whether the upcoming IPOs will be successful or not, but it certainly indicates that the markets and investors are enthusiastic about startup IPOs.'
India's gold demand rose 8 per cent annually to 136.6 tonne in the March quarter helped by a strong economic environment despite prices touching historic highs, according to the World Gold Council. The aggressive gold buying by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also contributed to the rise in demand. India's gold demand in value terms rose 20 per cent on an annual basis to Rs 75,470 crore during the January-March period of this year on volume growth as well as a rise in quarterly average prices by 11 per cent.
Interim Budget, the US Federal policy decision and quarterly earnings will be the major drivers for stock markets which may also see some consolidation this week, say analysts. Besides, investors would also focus on the trading activity of foreign investors and global trends for further cues. From the macroeconomic front, the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled to be announced on Thursday.
Dalal Street investors became richer by Rs 9.68 lakh crore in five days of market rally, where the Sensex breached the historic 73,000-mark for the first time ever to reach a new record peak, taking the market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies to an all-time high of Rs 376 lakh crore. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 759.49 points or 1.05 per cent to settle at a new closing high of 73,327.94 on Monday. During the day, it zoomed 833.71 points or 1.14 per cent to reach its all-time peak of 73,402.16.
Among the Sensex firms, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Nestle, Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finance, Maruti and HDFC Bank were the major laggards.
Food delivery major Swiggy has received approval from its shareholders for a $1.25 billion initial public offering (IPO), according to filings made with the Registrar of Companies sourced by Tofler. The Bengaluru-based firm plans to raise as much as Rs 3,750 crore (around $450 million) via a fresh issue and up to Rs 6,664 crore (around $800 million) through an offer-for-sale (OFS) component, the filings stated.
Stock markets would be largely driven by macroeconomic data, auto sales numbers, FII inflows and global trends this week, analysts said. The US debt ceiling negotiations and institutional flows will also be watched by investors. "This week, market participants will closely monitor institutional flows, as there is a historical observation that when both FIIs and DIIs become net buyers simultaneously, there is a likelihood of some profit-booking in the market," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Goods and Services Tax collections jumped 10.4 per cent to over Rs 1.72 lakh crore in January, reflecting buoyant economic activity and setting the stage for the next phase of GST reforms. This is the second-highest monthly collection ever and marks the third month in this financial year with a collection of Rs 1.70 lakh crore or more, a finance ministry statement said on Wednesday.
India's foreign exchange reserves increased to $604 billion as on December 1, surpassing the $600 billion mark after a gap of about four months. The forex reserves were last above the $600 billion mark on August 11 this year. "India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $604 billion as on December 1, 2023.
India's third largest IT company HCL Technologies on Friday reported a flat year-on-year growth in net profit in the March quarter at Rs 3,986 crore. However, the company posted an 8.4 per cent decline in net profit on a sequential basis, amid rising employee cost and tightening IT spends around the world. The company described the performance as "decent" in view of the global macroeconomic conditions.
HCL Technologies was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 5.58 per cent, followed by Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys, State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, NTPC and Wipro. In contrast, Nestle, Bharti Airtel, Maruti and ITC were among the laggards.
The general elections in April/May 2024 are expected to add volatility to the Indian markets, keeping investors on their toes.
The primary market will see a flurry of activity in March, with at least three companies including Gopal Snacks will float their initial public offerings (IPOs) in the upcoming week to raise Rs 1,325 crore collectively. The other two companies which are set to launch their maiden public issues are -- RK Swamy and JG Chemicals. Additionally, Bengaluru-based luxury furniture brand Stanley Lifestyles and Krystal Integrated Services are expected to float their initial share-sales later this month, according to merchant bankers.
After a sharp rally in the equities market this year, investors could be better off rotating some funds towards the debt market. Experts believe several tailwinds could spur bond market returns over the next 12-18 months. These include India's robust macroeconomics, declining inflation, and the imminent passive flows of close to Rs 2.5 trillion on account of domestic sovereign bonds getting included in the JP Morgan global indices.
Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would largely dictate terms in the equity markets this week amid a lack of major domestic triggers, analysts said. Markets may face near-term consolidation due to elevated valuations, they noted. "While the previous week was predominantly shaped by developments in the US Federal Reserve policy, attention will now shift to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on December 19," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
On the back of sound macroeconomic policies and softer commodity prices, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures, said the Reserve Bank's annual report released on Tuesday. It, however, added that slowing global growth, protracted geopolitical tensions and a possible upsurge in financial market volatility following new stress events in the global financial system could pose downside risks to growth. "On the back of sound macroeconomic policies, softer commodity prices, a robust financial sector, a healthy corporate sector, continued fiscal policy thrust on quality of government expenditure, and new growth opportunities stemming from global realignment of supply chains, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures," it said.
With the last quarter of 2023-24 (FY24) expected to have been soft owing to lower discretionary spend and macro uncertainty, many are hoping FY25 will be a year of recovery for the information-technology (IT) industry. The fourth quarter, January-March, is considered soft, and will continue to see the headwinds the sector has been facing. And the sector has entered the new financial year on a weak footing. Analysts are expecting Tier-I firms to report sequential growth of -1 per cent to 1.5 per cent and midcap players' growth may range between 0.7 per cent and 4 per cent.
Since March 2020, when the Nifty50 plummeted to 7,511 following the announcement of a nationwide lockdown, the stock market has been on an upward trajectory. Over the next four years, the major market index has delivered a remarkable compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 31.5 per cent. In the past year alone, the Nifty50 has gained by 27 per cent, hitting a succession of record highs.
Tactical investors should have an investment horizon of around six months to one year, long-term investors should stick around for 10 years or more.
The index is currently trading at 149 per cent of its historical P/B valuation, surpassing its previous peak of 125 per cent made in 2020-21.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
