While the fiscal year has just begun, any windfall surplus will be welcomed by the government as it bids to meet the fiscal deficit target of 5.9 per cent of GDP, amidst lack of clarity on exactly to what extent will recession in the West impact India's trade and tax collections.
India's foreign exchange reserves can best be used to invest in certain key infrastructure areas like road and power.
Forex inflows may slow down and banks may be deprived of cheap funds if the government accepts Reserve Bank of India's suggestion to tax non-resident Indian deposits, bankers warned on Wednesday.
The Reserve Bank of India is not in favour of limiting the build-up of foreign exchange reserves, now at over $93 billion, as the country would require them for higher economic growth, Usha Thorat, executive director at the central bank, said.
The probe is being conducted under various sections of the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) after the central probe agency recently received a communication from the commerce ministry seeking "necessary action" against e-commerce players like Amazon and Flipkart pertaining to certain multi-brand retail businesses and an observation made by the Delhi High Court in relation to Amazon.
The rupee depreciated further by 13 paise to hit a new life-time closing low of 82.30 against the US dollar on Friday as a firm American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and elevated crude oil prices sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 82.19, then fell further to 82.43. It finally settled at an all-time low of 82.30 against the American currency, registering a decline of 13 paise over its previous close.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has liberalised the procedure for facilitating the import of rough diamonds (termed roughs in the trade).
"RBI has been following a good policy. These are the ways of correcting international imbalances," Department of Economic Affairs Secretary R Gopalan said on the sidelines of a seminar organised by ICRIER in New Delhi.
India's rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to high prices of crude oil and other commodities, and may stabilise at around 79-80 against the US dollar in the near term, say experts amid limited headroom available with the Reserve Bank to check the weakening of the domestic currency. The currency has slumped over 5 per cent this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent international crude oil prices soaring to a decade high. On Monday, rupee ended at a fresh all-time low of 78.34 (provisional) against the US dollar.
The total reserves had gone up by $982 million in the previous reporting week.
Foreign currency assets, during the week, jumped by $924 million to $253.732 billion against $252.808 billion in the previous week, RBI said in its weekly report. FCAs, expressed in dollar terms, include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of non-US currencies (such as Euro, Sterling, Yen) held in reserves, RBI said.
Unhedged exposure of the corporate poses a risk and overall percentage of hedging remains low.
Benchmark interest rate hiked by 50 basis points to 3-year high at 5.90 per cent. Economic growth projection for FY23 cut to 7% from 7.2% estimated in August. GDP expected to grow at 6.3% in September quarter, 4.6% each in December and March quarters.
The government on Friday announced that no tax will be charged on overseas spending of up to Rs 7 lakh in a year using debit or credit as it looked to douse backlash from its earlier decision of levying TCS on all spending. The government had earlier this week brought overseas credit card spending under Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS). This meant that any spending using credit cards overseas would attract a 20 per cent tax from July 1.
Government is also will also enter into an agreement with Japan for a $50 billion swap.
The rupee fell by 49 paise to close at 81.89 (provisional) against the US dollar on Monday as heavy selling pressure in the domestic equities and a spike in crude oil prices weighed on the local unit.
The country's foreign exchange reserves surged to $576.98 billion as on March 31, 2021 from $544.69 billion at September-end last year, an RBI report said. Foreign currency assets (FCA), a major component of the overall reserves, increased to $536.693 billion as at March-end 2021 from $502.162 billion, the report noted. On balance of payments basis (excluding valuation changes), foreign exchange reserves increased by $83.9 billion during April-December 2020 as compared with $40.7 billion in the year-ago period, it said.
The country's foreign exchange reserves increased by $8.895 billion to reach a record high of $642.453 billion in the week ended September 3, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed. In the previous week ended August 27, the reserves had surged $16.663 billion to $633.558 billion, mainly due to a rise in special drawing rights (SDR) holdings. International Monetary Fund (IMF) had made an allocation of SDR 12.57 billion to India. For the week ended September 3, the increase was on account of a rise in foreign currency assets (FCAs), a major component of the overall reserves, RBI's weekly data released on Friday showed.
Sliding for the fifth straight session, the rupee fell 3 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.06 against the US dollar on Thursday amid a strong greenback overseas and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 78.92 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 78.90 and a low of 79.07. It finally settled at 79.06, down 3 paise over its previous close of 79.03.
The country's foreign exchange reserves increased by $1.701 billion to $584.107 billion in the week ended April 23, 2021, RBI data showed. In the previous week ended April 16, 2021, the reserves had risen by $1.193 billion to $582.406 billion. The reserves had touched a lifetime high of $590.185 billion in the week ended January 29, 2021.
Shares of most of the Adani group firms ended lower on Monday, with the group companies' combined mcap witnessing a sharp fall of Rs 9.5 lakh crore after US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research's adverse report.
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia is unlikely to have any major impact on the Indian rupee and the forex volatility in the country (USD/INR) has been much less now as compared to the global financial crisis which took place in 2008, SBI said in its Ecowrap research report. The report said that though the conflict between the two CIS nations may drag on for now, it is expected that the USD/INR, the most tracked pair in the local forex market, will trade at an elevated zone. But ideally, the expected average range of the rupee is expected to be in the band Between Rs 76 to Rs 78 to the USD with an appreciated bias.
Dulat, however, pointedly said engagement with Pakistan has always been "influenced by domestic politics".
India's macroeconomic fundamentals are strong to deal with global challenges and the central government is committed to sticking to the fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for the current fiscal, official sources said on Monday. The government is taking steps to deal with the spiralling crude oil prices in the international market, the sources said. India meets nearly 85 per cent of its oil demand through imports and a weaker rupee makes imports costlier.
India's current account deficit is expected to deteriorate in the current fiscal on account of costlier imports and tepid merchandise exports, according to the Finance Ministry's monthly economic review. The review released on Thursday by the ministry also said that global headwinds would continue to pose a downside risk to growth as crude oil and edibles, which have driven inflation in India, remain major imported components in the consumption basket. For the present, it said, "their global prices have softened, as fears of recession have dampened prices somewhat. This would weaken inflationary pressures in India and rein in inflation."
The rupee appreciated 7 paise to 79.74 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday as a positive trend in domestic equities supported the local unit. However, a strong American currency overseas and forex outflows restricted the rupee's gain, dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 79.72 against the American dollar, then went lower to trade at 79.74 against the greenback in early deals, registering a gain of 7 paise over the last close.
The country's foreign exchange reserves increased by $1.739 billion to $582.037 billion in the week ended on March 12, the RBI data showed. In the previous week ended March 5, the reserves had declined by $4.255 billion to $580.299 billion. The reserves had touched a record high of $590.185 billion in the week ended January 29, 2021.
Gold reserves increased $1.54 billion to $32.68 billion in the reporting week.
India's foreign exchange reserves showed a dip for the first time in several weeks after the government repaid $3.04 billion of loans in advance to multilateral agencies in the last week of February.
The country's foreign exchange reserves fell by $249 million to $583.697 billion in the week ended February 12, RBI data showed on Friday. In the previous week, the reserves had declined by $6.24 billion to stand at $583.945 billion. It had touched a record high of $590.185 billion in the week ended January 29, 2021.
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The trade deficit makes up an important part of the current account deficit, which had touched an all-time high of 4.8 per cent in 2012-13.
Gold reserves rose by $320 million to $31 billion.
The rupee depreciated 31 paise to an all-time low of 80.15 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday tracking the strength of the American currency and firm crude oil prices. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 80.10 against the dollar, then lost ground to quote at 80.15, registering a fall of 31 paise from the last close. On Friday, the rupee closed at 79.84 against the dollar.
A large number of public sector bank employees, as a matter of routine, do not "take" promotions so that they are not transferred out of their hometowns. The eastern region is famous for this, but it is a common practice everywhere, says Shyamal Majumdar.
The country's foreign exchange reserves touched a life time high of USD 555.12 billion after it surged by USD 3.615 billion in the week ended October 16, according to RBI data.
Gold reserves in the reporting week increased by $707 million to $33.52 billion.
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