Debt fund managers are reassessing their strategies after the setback delivered by the Reserve Bank of India recently. While most are refraining from any knee-jerk reaction to the central bank's surprise open market operation (OMO) announcements, they are taking a re-look at the duration of their schemes. Sandeep Yadav, head of fixed income at DSP Mutual Fund, said it has trimmed the duration of some schemes, considering the hawkish stance by the RBI.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday expressed hope that G20 will draw inspiration from the vibrancy of the Indian economy and work towards bringing back stability, confidence and growth on the global landscape.
In a dazzling resurgence, foreign investors have graced the Indian equity markets with an influx of nearly Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2023, fuelled by optimism over the country's resilient economic fundamentals amid shadows of a gloomy global scenario. Experts believe that the positive trend may continue in 2024. This follows Indian equities witnessing the worst-ever net outflow of Rs 1.21 lakh crore by FPIs in 2022 on aggressive rate hikes by the central banks globally after net inflows for three consecutive years.
Russia proceeds "from the postulate, a negotiated solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has no alternatives," said Putin while speaking at the Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Bishkek, Kyrgystan on Friday.
The Reserve Bank on Friday said it will soon commence the pilot launch of e-rupee for specific use cases with a view to bolstering India's digital economy, making payment systems more efficient, and checking money laundering. In a concept note on Central Bank Digital Currency, the RBI said CBDC is aimed to complement, rather than replace, current forms of money and is envisaged to provide an additional payment avenue to users, not to replace the existing payment systems. "Supported by state-of-the-art payment systems of India that are affordable, accessible, convenient, efficient, safe and secure, the Digital Rupee (e?) system will further bolster India's digital economy, make the monetary and payment systems more efficient and contribute to furthering financial inclusion," the paper said.
With the first quarter earnings season coming to an end, the domestic equity markets would be driven by global trends and trading activity of foreign investors this week, analysts said. The movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee against the dollar would also drive trends in the market. "Macroeconomic indicators, trends in global stock markets and FII activities will be pivotal in shaping market trends in the coming days," Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
The currency in circulation (CIC) declined in the first half of this financial year and this is the first time this has happened in H1 in at least 10 years. The CIC on March 31, 2023, was Rs 33.78 trillion, which fell to Rs 33.01 trillion on September 22 -- a difference of about Rs 76,658 crore. In the first half of the last two financial years, the CIC went up by Rs 33,357 crore in FY23 and Rs 84,978 crore in FY22.
Riding the wave of the equity market, the mutual fund (MF) industry experienced double-digit growth in Samvat 2079, concluding the Hindu calendar year close to the Rs 50 trillion assets under management milestone. After a subdued 6 per cent growth in Samvat 2078, the industry's assets surged over 18 per cent last year to Rs 46.7 trillion. Industry players anticipate that Samvat 2080 will also be a fruitful year for the asset management industry, given the strong inflows from retail investors, particularly through the systematic investment plan route.
Falling for the second consecutive week, India's forex reserves dropped by $4.34 billion to $589.14 billion for the week ended May 26, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the reserves had declined by $6.05 billion to $593.48 billion. It can be noted that in October 2021, the country's forex kitty had reached an all-time high of $645 billion.
Global financial markets are not yet fully factoring in any escalation in the Israel-Palestine geopolitical conflict, said Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies in his latest weekly note to investors, GREED & fear. The pertinent point about ongoing events in West Asia from a financial market perspective, according to him, is that, despite much talk about a pending ground invasion of Gaza, no such invasion has yet happened. "This is beginning to make GREED & fear wonder if it is ever going to happen.
For the time being, digital lending remains a grey area, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'Focus on 19,400/64,900 as the key resistance levels for the Nifty/Sensex.'
India's foreign exchange reserves jumped $4.53 billion to $588.78 billion for the week ended April 28, the Reserve Bank of India said on Friday. The overall reserves had dropped $2.16 billion to $584.25 billion in the previous reporting week. In October 2021, the country's forex reserves had touched an all-time high of $645 billion.
India's foreign exchange reserves dropped by $6.05 billion to $593.48 billion during the week ended May 19, RBI said on Friday. The drop in the kitty has snapped two consecutive weeks of increases. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had increased by $3.5 billion to take the overall quantum just shy of $600 billion.
Global funds, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, are now beginning to pay more attention to India with the market now offering 30 companies with a market capitalisation over $25 billion.
The Reserve Bank of India has rejected three applications, including that of West End Housing Finance, for setting up small finance banks. These applications were found not suitable for granting of in-principle approval to set up small finance banks, it said in a statement on Tuesday. RBI had received about a dozen applications to set up banks under the guidelines for 'on tap' Licensing of Universal Banks and Small Finance Banks (SFBs).
The overall reserves had dropped by $4.53 billion to $588.78 billion in the previous reporting week. In October 2021, the country's forex reserve had reached an all-time high of $645 billion. The reserves have been declining as the central bank deployed the kitty to defend the rupee amid pressures caused majorly by global developments.
Fintech companies believe that the impact of Reserve Bank of India's order last week on unsecured loans will be visible in six to 12 months and prompt them to diversify and strengthen their secured portfolio. Fintechs which source funds through banks or non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) are looking at quickly building their secured portfolio options to at least 40 per cent of their total portfolio. "Over the medium to long term, as part of our product strategy, we are evaluating secured products which can be enabled over a digital platform" said Yogi Sadana, the founder of Zype, a lending-focussed fintech.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday slashed the growth projection to 7 per cent for the current fiscal from the earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent, citing aggressive tightening of monetary policies globally and moderation in demand. Unveiling the fifth monetary policy for this fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank remains committed to price stability to put the country on the sustained path of growth.
Domestic equity markets, which are at record high levels, will be driven by quarterly earnings, global trends and foreign fund movement, analysts said. The movement of rupee and global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked by investors. "The direction of global stock markets, fluctuations in the rupee-to-dollar exchange rate, and movement in crude oil prices will all play a crucial role in influencing the overall market trend.
The overall reserves had jumped by $7.2 billion to $595.98 billion for the previous reporting week. It can be noted that in October 2021, the country's forex kitty had reached an all-time high of $645 billion.
Fundraising via initial public offers (IPOs) dropped 52.2 per cent to $147.2 billion in the first eight months of calendar year 2023 (CY23), suggests a recent report by GlobalData, a London-based analytics and consulting company. At the country level, the report suggests, India topped the charts with 152 transactions worth $3.8 billion during this period, primarily due to a higher number of SME IPOs, followed by the US with 99 deals totaling $16 billion, while China ranked third with 88 transactions worth $32.3 billion. "An analysis of GlobalData's Deals Database reveals that there were 750 IPO listings registered with an aggregate deal value of $147.2 billion in the first eight months of 2023 on the stock exchanges worldwide.
The year 2022 saw the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) start acting on the policy repo rate after a gap of two years. The six-member monetary policy committee of the RBI reduced interest rate sharply - by 115 bps - when Covid-19 struck in 2020. In March 2020, days after the nationwide lockdown was announced, MPC in an unscheduled meeting reduced the repo rate by 75 bps, followed by another 40 bps in May. Status quo was maintained for the next two years since the May repo rate hike.
A number of exhibitions at the Bharat Mandapam, the convention centre which will host key G20 summit meetings, will showcase India's technological prowess and innovation, and offer a multitude of unique experiences to the visitors.
Indian equity markets had a good run in the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), with the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 hitting fresh 52-week highs. While the Sensex scaled up to a peak 64,718, the Nifty50 hit Mt 19,189. As the markets now prepare to enter the second half (H2) of CY23, all eyes are on global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as to when they will pause and pivot as regards their interest-rate cycle.
India's forex reserves dropped by $2.164 billion to $584.248 billion for the week ended April 21, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the overall kitty had risen by $1.657 billion to $586.412 billion. It can be noted that in October 2021, the country's forex kitty had reached an all-time high of $645 billion.
Investors are increasingly turning optimistic about shares of new-age companies. From broad-based 'sell' calls, analysts are giving thumbs up to Zomato, Paytm, and FSN e-Commerce Ventures-owned Nykaa as these companies have shifted focus to sustainable profits. The shares of Zomato hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 126 apiece on the BSE on November 7, having rallied 15.4 per cent in one week.
After hiking the repo rate by 0.50 per cent, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said future policy actions by the central bank will be guided by the evolving conditions. Addressing a press conference, the governor said the RBI has changed the policy stance to drop the phrase "remains accommodative", and instead opted for "withdrawal of accommodation" for guiding its future moves. The central bank did not hike the cash reserve ratio contrary to speculation, he said, adding that the liquidity withdrawal will be calibrated and measured.
The country's largest lender SBI on Saturday reported a 9.13 per cent rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 16,099.58 crore for the September quarter, weighed down by money it had to set aside for employees' impending wage and pension revisions. On a standalone basis, the State Bank of India (SBI) had a 8.03 per cent increase in the profit after tax for the reporting quarter at Rs 14,330 crore. However, the same was down 15.13 per cent compared to Rs 16,884 crore in the June quarter.
India should become a middle-income country and then push to make INR (rupee) a hard currency, and till then, it must promote the settlement of global trade in the local currency, think tank GTRI said on Sunday. Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that transforming a currency into a hard currency is a complex process that hinges on several pivotal factors. Firstly, economic stability is paramount; a country must exhibit low and stable inflation, consistent growth, and a balanced trade environment.
Despite the demonetisation of 2016 and the rise in digital transactions that followed, the economy's dependence on cash has remained as high as ever. So when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced a pilot project of its version of digital cash - called the central bank digital currency (CBDC) - on December 1, many questions were asked. Can the CBDC replace physical cash, even partially? Can it match cash in terms of convenience? Are CBDC transactions truly anonymous?
Wholesale price inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth month in a row in July at (-)1.36 per cent, even though prices of food items, especially vegetables, skyrocketed. The inflation, however, has inched up from (-)4.12 per cent recorded in June fuelled by 62.12 per cent rise in vegetable prices. In July last year, wholesale price index (WPI) was 14.07 per cent.
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
'There are occasions when the prices of individual items like food raise inflation; then supply-side measures must be taken.' 'But if there is continued inflation, it means liquidity is aggravating the situation.'
A Hinduja Group firm on Wednesday emerged as the highest bidder with an offer of Rs 9,650 crore to take over debt-ridden Reliance Capital in the second round of auction, sources said. The bid by IndusInd International Holdings Ltd (IIHL) is higher than Rs 8,640 crore offer made by Torrent Investments in the first round of auction held in December last year. The other two suitors -- Torrent Investments and Oaktree -- did not participate in the second round of auction, sources said.
As much as 88 per cent of the Rs 2,000 currency notes have either been deposited or exchanged at banks, and only Rs 42,000 crore worth of such notes are with public as on July 31, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Tuesday. The last date to exchange/deposit Rs 2,000 denomination notes is September 30. In value terms, Rs 2,000 notes in circulation has come down to Rs 42,000 crore as on July from Rs 3.56 lakh crore on the day of announcement of withdrawal on May 19.
India's banking system is expected to remain unscathed from the troubles in Credit Suisse as it has a very small presence in the country, experts said. Although Credit Suisse is more relevant to India's financial system than Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), it has very limited operations, according to a report by Jefferies India. The Switzerland-based bank, the report said, "has less than Rs 20,000 crore in assets (12th among foreign banks), presence in the derivatives market and funded 60 per cent of assets from borrowings, of which 96 per cent are up to two months.
Foreign flows into Indian equities are expected to pause in the short to medium term, say analysts. The outlook is influenced by multiple factors, including rising oil prices, actions from global central banks, climbing bond yields, and the dollar index gaining prominence. "Valuations appear rich with the markets at record highs.
For all its claims to economic glory, the majority of India's population lives vulnerable lives, a situation that has only worsened over the past 15 years, to the extent that the government now fears to release economic data or even conduct a proper Census, notes Rathin Roy.
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