Job creation, improving farm productivity, and mobilising public funds for infrastructure development were some of the issues that figured during the interaction between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and economists ahead of the 2025-26 Union Budget. The prime minister on Tuesday met eminent economists and sectoral experts at NITI Aayog to hear their views and suggestions for the upcoming Budget. Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to present the Budget for 2025-26 in the Lok Sabha on February 1, 2025.
The society needs a proper balance between the state, market and voluntary organisations to proceed on the path of balanced development, Asian Development Bank deputy country director Sudipto Mundle said.
Three weeks ahead of the Budget, Asian Development Bank expressed concern over high fiscal deficit, which, it said, was acting as a roadblock to India's economic growth.
The Asian Development Bank on Thursday revised upwards its growth projection of Indian economy to 6.7 per cent in 2003, but cautioned that GDP was expected to grow by 6.3-6.4 per cent next year.
Measures that quickly boost demand and increase employment are needed to push up growth. Moreover, without announcing new planss, the government should strengthen schemes such as PM KISAN, MNREGA and programmes to build rural roads.
In absolute terms, fiscal deficit went up by 33.6 per cent in April-December 2017 and the revenue deficit by as much as 40.7 per cent compared to the same period the previous year, said Sudipto Mundle.
NCAER said the monetary policy measures are unlikely to revive growth at this juncture and suggested providing fiscal stimulus, which too can be challenging unless it can be financed through better revenue generation.
'How low GDP would have been, we don't know.' 'It raises serious questions because so many indicators are pointing to such a sharp decline and GDP estimates are still showing 4 per cent growth.'
Data on the new series given by a panel on real sector statistics shows that GDP grew by 10.23 per cent in 2007-08 and 10.78 per cent in 2010-11. There are some years for which the new figures show a deceleration in growth as well. The new series has 2011-12 as the base year while the earlier series had 2004-05 and 1993-94.
False and acrimonious debates such as Modi versus Manmohan might allow for victories that are political and partisan. But the real loser is the nation, India and Bharat, notes Arvind Subramanian, former chief economic advisor to the Modi government in its first term.
Finance Commission has got new team who are committed to growth initiatives.
The reform priorities are clear: enhance savings, improve productivity. Just 25 basis points of moving interest rate up or down would not boost investment: Former RBI Governor Y V Reddy.
Some say the MPC will raise the rate, while others are of the view that there is already de facto interest rate tightening through rising bond yields, which might prompt the central bank to go for a pause.
To do so, the government will have to tackle a number of broad development challenges successfully, says Shankar Acharya
'The arrests of Sanatan Sanstha members for committing murder and stockpiling explosives with the alleged intent of committing mass murder must be embarrassing to a majoritarian government,' notes Devangshu Datta.
'At this stage, you should distribute money and food.' 'Like you queue up to vote, let people queue up to collect this.' 'This will arrest the decline in demand which will have a multiplier effect on the demand side for the economy as a whole.' 'The government should earmark about 2% of the GDP for this.' 'And this should be the first step to revive the economy.'
India's gross domestic product product (GDP) growth rate between 2011-12 and 2016-17 should be about 4.5 per cent instead of the official estimate of close to 7 per cent, he said in a research paper published at Harvard University. "The Indian policy automobile has been navigated with a faulty, possibly broken, speedometer," he says in the paper.
'We are going to have a recession this year, maybe next year too...'
Most mainstream researchers agree that good governance is a necessary condition for growth.
'Slowing down of the economy was mainly due to the demonetisation shock...' 'If you cut off the oxygen supply to a patient in the ICU and the patient dies, the patient does not come alive again when you restore the oxygen supply.'
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