While the markets have factored in a number close to 350 for the BJP and almost 400 for the NDA, 50 seats fewer could trigger a market correction
Decisions should not be based on feelings, such as optimism or pessimism about the stock market or specific investment products, suggests Avinash Luthria.
HDFC Bank's latest shareholding data showed that the room for foreign investment has fallen just 5 basis points short of the threshold set by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) to fully include the stock in its indices. Currently, the index provider has applied an adjustment factor of 0.5 since the foreign room is less than 25 per cent. Removal of the adjustment factor will result in inflows of a massive $4.8 billion (Rs 40,000 crore) into HDFC Bank, according to Brian Freitas, a New Zealand-based analyst with Periscope Analytics.
Despite discounts on Russian crude oil - which fell to the lowest since the Ukraine war began - and the rising sanctions, import volumes from the country will remain stable for now or at least till July, said refinery officials. "There is an appetite for Russian crude, and shipments are not expected to taper off beyond this point unless something major happens. "Talks are on, and buying will continue," an official at a major refinery said.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
The share of foreign loans in total Adani group debt portfolio dropped to 61 per cent by September 2023 from 63 per cent as of March 2023, as the group repaid part of its foreign loans and refinanced part of older loans. The share of Indian lenders, on the other hand, rose to 39 per cent in the total debt pie in September 2023 from 37 per cent in March after a report by US-based short seller Hindenburg Research in January last year, which led to volatility in the share prices of group companies. The group's total debt remained static at Rs 2.26 trillion in the same period.
The domestic equity markets are expected to extend gains following the strong showing of the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state elections - a crucial precursor to the general elections in May. The BJP decisively secured victories in three of the four key states - Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. While the battles in these three states were closely contested, the scale of the BJP's triumph has surprised many, heightening expectations for regime continuity in 2024 - a positive catalyst for the markets.
Stocks of public sector undertakings (PSUs) have been on fire in the past year as investors cheered an improvement in key operating metrics and embraced counters of these state-owned enterprises, analysts suggest. The S&P BSE PSU Index has gained over 90 per cent in the past year, rising much higher than the S&P BSE Sensex, which has rose nearly 19 per cent during this period, according to ACE Equity data. The BSE PSU Index, reports show, has delivered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28 per cent (including dividends reinvestments) over five years and risen by almost 60 per cent in the past year.
Deloitte India on Friday said it estimates India's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal helped by consumption expenditure, exports rebound and capital flows. In its India's economic outlook report, Deloitte said the rapid growth of the middle-income class has led to rising purchasing power and even created demand for premium luxury products and services. With the expectation that the number of middle-to-high-income segments will be one in two households by 2030/31, up from one in four currently, we believe this trend will likely become further amplified, driving overall private consumer expenditure growth, it said.
The BSE has decided to move the expiry day of Bankex derivatives contracts from Friday to Monday, effective October 16, the bourse said on Wednesday. "New contracts of S&P BSE Bankex with Monday expiry will be generated on October 13, 2023, and will be available for trading with effect from October 16, 2023," the BSE said, citing the decision was based on the market feedback. The expiry of Sensex derivatives contracts will continue to be on Friday.
The RBI's decision to tighten norms for unsecured personal loans is credit positive because lenders will need to allocate higher capital for such loans, thus improving their loss-absorbing buffers, Moody's Investors Service said on Monday. The Reserve Bank last week raised risk weights on unsecured retail loans, credit cards and lending to non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) by 25 percentage points. Moody's said unsecured loans have been growing rapidly in the past few years, exposing financial institutions to a potential spike in credit costs in case of sudden economic or interest rate shocks.
Without naming India, S&P said it expects that in regions where inflation already exceeds targets, or which are vulnerable to capital flight, central banks will be forced to raise interest rates.
Major laggards among Sensex constituents included Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Steel and ITC. Power Grid, UltraTech Cement, NTPC and Titan emerged as winners.
'It is advisable to stay away from the markets for now and buy only on a dip.'
In a bid to enhance its equity exposure and earn higher returns for its nearly 65 million subscribers, the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) is considering reinvesting 50 per cent of its exchange-traded funds (ETFs) redemption proceeds back into equity. Sources close to the development said a proposal regarding this was discussed in the investment committee (IC) meeting in October last year, and the recommendation has been sent to the Central Board of Trustees (CBT), the apex decision-making body of the EPFO for its approval. The next CBT meeting is scheduled to be held on Saturday.
IndusInd Bank was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 3.25 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, RIL, TCS, L&T and Infosys. State Bank of India, NTPC, Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors and Power Grid were among the laggards, slipping up to 2.94 per cent.
Do not, however, enter expecting quick returns.
Tata Motors is likely to exit the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 indices once the demerger process of its commercial vehicle (CV) and passenger vehicle (PV) businesses is complete, analysts at Nuvama Institutional Equities said. They have compared the development with Reliance Industries (RIL) and Jio Financial Services, which got listed separately and eventually (in the next few days) got excluded from the domestic indices.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said the second wave of COVID infections poses downside risks to India's GDP and heightens the possibility of business disruptions. The second wave brings in uncertainty and a drawn-out COVID outbreak will impede India's recovery, it said.
Even as Srini Pallia, a Wipro veteran, is set to take charge as the chief executive officer (CEO) of the company, analysts expect the stock's underperformance to continue in the near-future. This, they believe, will be on the back of likely loss of market share, and difficult business environment. "We expect Wipro to underperform peers on growth once again in FY25 as channel checks and media reports suggest Wipro is losing share with select clients across multiple verticals.
India's defence sector presents an ordering opportunity worth $138 billion between fiscal years 2023-24 (FY24) and FY32, said a latest note by Nomura, which has initiated coverage on two defence-related players - Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) and Bharat Electronics (BEL) - with a 'buy' rating. The research and broking house sees an upside potential of 28 per cent and 32 per cent, respectively in these two stocks from the current levels.
'Investors need to be stock specific and should not rush to buy stocks at the current levels.'
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said Indian banks face a systemic risk as the second COVID wave will impair the performance of financial institutions in the April-September period. Stating that economic recovery remains highly vulnerable to setbacks due to COVID, particularly if fresh outbreaks trigger new lockdowns, S&P said the banking sector's weak loans will likely remain elevated at 11-12 per cent of gross loans in the next 12 to 18 months. "The second wave has front-ended weakness in asset quality," said S&P Global Ratings Credit Analyst Deepali Seth Chhabria. "Financial institutions face a strained first half amid weak collections and poor disbursements."
With sentiment for the automotive (auto) sector turning positive, stocks of two-wheeler auto majors have been hitting their 52-week highs. Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor Company, and Eicher Motors recently reached their yearly highs on strong sales in the festival season and the expectation of faster growth rates ahead. Since the start of this month, listed two-wheeler majors have delivered returns in the 12-17 per cent range, compared to the 7 per cent gains for the S&P BSE Auto Index and 3 per cent for the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
The stock of Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) has been touching successive all-time highs on the bourses and, over the past year, gained 81 per cent. While the S&P BSE Auto Index has not performed poorly, registering gains of 73 per cent, it still trails the company by 800 basis points (bps) during this period. There are multiple reasons why investors are beating a path to M&M's counter.
Among the Sensex firms, ITC, NTPC, Axis Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints and Tata Steel were the major gainers. Mahindra & Mahindra, Wipro, Maruti, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
'Investors don't have to worry about underperformance in passive funds, which earn market-equivalent returns.'
ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Infosys, M&M, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, SBI and Maruti were also among the gainers. On the other hand, IndusInd, TCS, Titan and Asian Paints declined.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 20,170 crore ($2.4 billion) recently. This marked the fifth-highest weekly outflow from overseas funds since the beginning of 2008 and the largest since the last week of March 2020. Due to the Covid scare, FPIs had sold shares worth Rs 21,951 crore during that week, causing the market to decline by nearly 20 per cent.
Metal and mining companies, such as Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Hindalco, and Coal India, have been among the top-performing sectors on the bourses in recent months. The S&P BSE Metal Index is up 13 per cent in the past three months, rallying 29 per cent in the past year, outperforming the broader market. For comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has only seen a 1.7 per cent increase in the past three months, with a 15 per cent gain since the end of September last year.
Among the Sensex firms, Asian Paints, Tata Steel, HCL Technologies, Nestle, Maruti, JSW Steel, NTPC and Larsen & Toubro were the major laggards. Sun Pharma, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries, State Bank of India and Bharti Airtel were the gainers.
Mining mogul Anil Agarwal-led Vedanta Resources' credit profile will unlikely be weighed down by the group's planned Rs 1.54 lakh crore foray into semiconductor manufacturing, S&P Global Ratings said on Monday. "This is because the company has reiterated that the $20 billion related investment will be carried out outside of Vedanta Resources. "The business will be undertaken in a separate entity under Vedanta Resources' holding company Volcan Investments Ltd," it said.
Rekha Jhunjhunwala's net worth has increased by more than 7 per cent, or Rs 2,865 crore, compared to less than 1 per cent rise in the BSE Sensex.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday upgraded ratings of five companies of the Tata group including Tata Steel, Tata Motors and Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) reflecting its reassessment of the ongoing influence and the potential for 'extraordinary financial support' from the parent, Tata Sons. Under the revised exercise, S&P Global said ratings on Tata Steel Ltd and its 100 per cent-owned financing subsidiary ABJA Investment Co Pte Ltd have been upgraded to 'BBB-' from 'BB' with stable outlook. Similarly, Tata Motors Ltd and its wholly-owned arm TML Holdings Pte Ltd have been upgraded to 'BB-' from 'B' ratings with stable outlook.
Investors shunned shares of Bajaj Finance on Friday, a day after the non-banking financial company (NBFC) reported a sharp contraction in its net interest margin (NIM) for the March quarter of the financial year 2023-24 (Q4FY24). The losses accounted for a fifth of the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex's 609-point loss. Most brokerages have tamed their earnings expectations for the next couple of quarters, after the management said it expected the pressure on NIMs to continue in the near term.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global cues, macroeconomic data announcements and the ongoing quarterly earnings are the major triggers that will dictate trends in stock markets this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked. "All eyes are on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for November 1, particularly due to the multi-year high levels of the US bond yields.
Shares of ICICI Bank may outperform those of HDFC Bank in the near-term, analysts said recently, after the Sandeep Bakhshi-led private sector lender reported a strong set of numbers for the July to September quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The result, they said, reiterated that ICICI Bank is maintaining a sustainable and prudent growth led by tech-driven initiatives as against HDFC Bank, which is facing merger related challenges. According to analysts at Prabhudas Lilladher, ICICI Bank is valued at par with HDFC Bank at 2.2x/1.9x on FY25/26E core adjusted book value (ABV) basis.
Shares of low-cost airline IndiGo hit record high on the bourses soon after reports of pilot crisis at Vistara emerged. The development also saw airfares surge by around 25 per cent on select routes. Shares of IndiGo hit a lifetime high of ~3,68.5 on April 2, 2024, and has gained 2.4 per cent on the bourses in April.
Manufacturing activities in India touched a three-month high in March boosted by faster expansions in new orders and output amid demand resilience and easing of cost pressures, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 55.3 in February to 56.4 in March, signalling the strongest improvement in operating conditions in 2023 so far. The March PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 21st straight month.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors, outcome of state elections and RBI's interest rate decision are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "Global markets are currently in a fabulous mood. The US 10-year bond yield and the dollar index are also cooling off, which gives strength to the market. These factors will be closely monitored, as they have the potential to influence market sentiment," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd. On the political front, the results of assembly elections in five states are eagerly anticipated, Gour said.
