The Nifty IT has been one of the worst-performing indices on the bourses this calendar year. Rising concerns of a potential global recession, which investors fear can dampen demand for export-facing domestic information technology (IT) giants, have sent the index down over 30 per cent on a year-to-date basis. By comparison, the Nifty50 Index has shed 2.8 per cent during the period, reveals data by ACE Equity.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continue to cut their shareholding in both Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC) and HDFC Bank. As per latest data, during the June 2022-23 quarter (Q1FY23), FPIs held 68.1 per cent and 65.96 per cent, respectively, in HDFC and HDFC Bank. Overseas shareholding is down 111/406 basis points (bps) and 260/412 bps on the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ)/year-to-date (YTD) basis in HDFC and HDFC Bank, respectively.
A slowdown in hiring by India's top IT companies has resulted in a sharp increase in the industry's profit per employee in Q3FY23. The top four IT companies earned a net profit of 1.7 lakh per employee during October-December 2022, up 8.6 per cent from Rs 1.57 lakh in Q2FY23 and 16.3 per cent from a record low of Rs 1.47 lakh in Q1FY23. Earnings per employee in the third quarter were, however, still down 0.9 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.
After a sharp correction over the last few months, analysts seem to be turning cautiously optimistic on the information technology (IT) sector and suggest there could be trading opportunities in select counters despite revenue and growth concerns that still plague the sector. "IT stocks valuations have corrected 17 per cent-49 per cent and stock prices have corrected 9 - 42 per cent since mid-December 2021. Nifty IT index valuation has corrected by 27 per cent and price by 21 per cent. "About two quarters ago, we made a case that valuation drivers have peaked.
Companies don't have to be in the field to nudge people to return money they owe lenders.
The key risks against a fast recovery would include long delays in business travel resumption, delays in commissioning, etc.
The results of Indian IT services players in the just-concluded fourth quarter of 2021-22 are expected to reveal continuing growth momentum as demand surges on the back of digital transformations and the cloud shift, but analysts anticipate margins to be under pressure due to supply challenges. Analysts covering the sector expect revenue commentary should be strong despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict and inflation. Top-line growth will be driven by broad-based demand with a strong uptick for cloud, digital, cybersecurity, data analytics, and artificial intelligence, among other services.
'... as has been happening in the last three weeks, then the foreign exchange reserves will not be comfortable to ensure that the rupee does not fall drastically.'
With retail inflation surprising on the upside, the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to increase the repo rate by 35-50 basis points (bps) in the review scheduled for September 28-30. According to economists, the central bank will continue to focus on bringing inflation down even though economic growth has remained sluggish. Data released by the government on Monday showed that the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased by 7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in August, thus, staying above the upper tolerance limit of the central bank for all the eight months of 2022.
Distribution yields could rise, but risk of Covid, higher interest rates remain.
Besides, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has also added another blow to FMCG makers as they expect a rise in the prices of wheat, edible oil and crude. Companies such as Dabur and Parle are watching the situation and will undertake calibrated price increases to mitigate the inflationary pressures.
These stocks offer the best combination of maximum 'buy' recommendations from brokerages and share price upside over the next 12 months.
Members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) felt that though the Indian economy was resilient in the third wave, it, however, lost some momentum and with inflation likely to soften, there is room to continue with the accommodative stance and support revival, the minutes of the MPC meeting released on Thursday revealed. The six-member MPC voted to keep the policy rate unchanged and continued with the accommodative stance at its meeting on February 10. However, external member Jayanth Verma voted against the stance because he felt a switch to neutral was long overdue and the current stance has become counterproductive and deflects focus away from addressing recessionary trends that date back to at least 2019.
HDFC Bank, the country's largest private-sector lender, lost to competition wholesale loans of around Rs 50,000 crore after it increased interest rates in May, said Chief Financial Officer Srinivasan Vaidyanathan in an analyst call. "There were some customers who were offered lower rates by other market participants. "But we decided not to cut back on our rates," he said while addressing analysts after the announcement of the bank's Q1 earnings.
India's equity markets are on a roller-coaster ride, after delivering spectacular returns for two consecutive years - in 2020 and 2021. The benchmark National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) Nifty50 is down 1.5 per cent in the first nine months of the current calendar year 2022 (CY22) as foreign portfolio investors sold Indian stocks due to rising bond yields in the US and across global markets, including India. The sell-off in the Indian equity markets has, however, not been broad-based and largely limited to sectors facing earnings headwinds from rising interest rates, lower commodity and energy prices, and likely economic recession in advanced economies.
Tata Steel has a very British problem. The performance of Europe dragged the steel major's October-December (Q3FY23) performance with the UK business accounting for a major part of the operating loss; on the bottom line, the overhang of the British Steel Pension Scheme (BSPS) showed. And a nearly three-year discussion with the UK government on a support package for a green transition resulted in an offer that fell short of the ask.
Chief economist at State Bank of India has revised downward the full-year growth forecast to a low 6.8 per cent from 7.5 per cent earlier for FY2023, citing "the way below GDP numbers for the first quarter". The National Statistical Office on Wednesday released the Q1 growth numbers which showed a consensus growth of 13.5 per cent, pulled down by the poor show of the manufacturing sector, which reported a paltry 4.8 per cent expansion in the first three months of FY23, negating the robust show by the services sector. Consensus forecast was 15-16.7 per cent of which the RBI made the highest forecast of 16.7 per cent.
A looming global shortage of diesel in Europe presents India with more than one opportunity to profit from strong margins. A shortage of the fuel, a key contributor to inflation, has been exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, and western sanctions on Russian fuel supplies. The slowdown in natural gas supply means the West needs diesel to heat their homes this winter.
Equity indices gave up early gains to close in the red for the third session on the trot on Wednesday, weighed by selling in banking and finance counters amid inflationary pressures and persistent foreign fund outflows. A weak rupee and lacklustre global cues also kept buying sentiment in check, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex opened on a firm footing but failed to hold on the momentum, finishing 237.44 points or 0.41 per cent lower at 58,338.93. On similar lines, the broader NSE Nifty dipped 54.65 points or 0.31 per cent to close at 17,475.65.
After a very weak December quarter and a poor year-to-date fiscal year volumes-when sales plunged to the lowest in nine years, the signs in the first 15 days of January haven't been encouraging either. "Though the severity of the current wave is not as high as the previous one, it has hit the sentiments hard impacting conversion of enquiries into sales," said Vinkesh Gulati, president, Federation of Automobile Dealers Association (FADA).
Warning that the new year will be riskier than the previous two in terms of growth, inflation and the perils of monetary policy normalisation on consumption demand in particular, along with other external risks, a Wall Street brokerage has pencilled in an 8.2 per cent GDP growth next fiscal, with more downside risks to the projection. The biggest risk to the projection is a derailed consumption demand that has been the main growth driver in the past many years, said the Bank of America Securities India house economists who still believe that consumption demand will remain the key driver of growth next fiscal as well.
