Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Ridham Desai, predict that the next phase of the Indian market rally will be primarily driven by the April-June quarter (Q1FY27) corporate earnings season and the performance of the monsoon.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have updated their outlook for the Indian markets, and they now expect the Sensex to hit the 107,000 mark by December 2026 in a bull-case scenario, translating into an upside of 26 per cent from current levels.
After the massive sell-off since October, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are no longer the biggest non-promoter-shareholders in top Indian companies. This has happened for the first time in over a decade. "At 25.6 per cent ownership of India's largest 75 companies, domestic investors are now larger holders than FPIs for the first time since 2010," said Morgan Stanley strategists Ridham Desai, Sheela Rathi and Nayant Parekh in a note.
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
The outcome of the general elections, the Morgan Stanley note says, has enough firepower to sway the markets on either side.
The general elections in April/May 2024 are expected to add volatility to the Indian markets, keeping investors on their toes.
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
Many years during which monsoons were poor saw high returns, while normal or excess rainfall has also coincided with poor calendar year gains.
Despite headwinds, it remains "structurally bullish" on India and expects the Sensex to scale up to the 70,000-mark by December 2022; 80,000 level in a bull-case scenario and hover around the 50,000-mark as a bear-case, the brokerage house said in a report.
In a bull-case scenario it sees the Sensex at 61,000 levels, while it's bear case scenario pegs the Sensex at 41,000 levels by December 2021.
