'Economic activity appears to have peaked in the second quarter of FY26, with industrial output, exports, and business confidence all softening from October 2025.'
Markets will look for clear guidance on how the MPC interprets the uncertainty and what it implies for the future course of monetary policy, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
'Rate cut looks unlikely and there is reason to believe that the cycle is over.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has opted to keep its key interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, anticipating a global economic recovery following a ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran conflict, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations.
The Indian stock market is poised for a volatile week, influenced by the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision, crucial global macroeconomic data, and the escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, according to market analysts.
S Mahendra Dev, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, expressed confidence that the rupee would stabilise around the 92-93 level against the US dollar, despite geopolitical tensions, and that foreign investment flows would return.
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review.
Indian markets on Dalal Street rallied sharply as easing tensions in the US-Iran conflict and stable oil prices boosted sentiment. Track Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex performance and key global triggers.
"It is quite possible that the rates will remain low in the near to medium term, but that will depend on how conditions evolve," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
The Indian government has extended the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) mandate to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent, with a tolerance band of 2 per cent on either side, for another five years until March 2031.
While participants in the domestic financial market are expecting a 25 basis-point policy repo rate cut in the December meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), economists remain torn between a reduction in rate cut and a pause.
After a 25 basis point rate cut in December, the RBI on Friday decided to pause on the policy rate front amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Benchmark lending rates unchanged with repo rate at 5.25%
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said the key policy rates will remain at low levels for a long period and may go down even further.
Uncertainties over the impact of the United States' (US') tariffs on India, along with the ongoing transmission of past rate cuts, prompted the members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain the status quo during the August meeting, the minutes showed. While some of the external members highlighted their concern over growth, the internal members cited the one-year headline inflation rate overshooting the 4 per cent target.
'Credit growth in India remains in double digits, even though corporate borrowing is subdued.' 'Corporate credit is weak because companies are cash-rich and cautious amid global uncertainty.'
Stock markets closed higher on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged as expected and proposed allowing banks to lend to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) with certain prudential safeguards to deepen the financing pool for the real estate sector.
Strong domestic growth will continue to draw foreign investment into the Indian economy, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Tuesday. He said this was reflected in recent free trade agreements and investment commitments by large technology companies.
The rupee appreciated 13 paise to close at 90.34 against the US dollar on Thursday, on trade deal optimism and overnight decline in commodity prices, even as the upside remained capped as investors look for more clarity on the India-US trade deal.
* Repo rate reduced by 25bps to 5.25 pc; * 4th rate cut, totalling 125 bps, since February 2025; * MPC also decided to continue with neutral stance; * GDP growth forecast for FY26 raised to 7.3 pc from 6.8 pc;
Retail inflation rose to a three-month high of 1.33 per cent in December 2025 mainly due to higher prices of kitchen essentials, including vegetables and protein-rich items.
The rupee, which was the worst performing Asian currency in 2025 and also in January, was the best performing Asian currency on Tuesday.
Shrugging off concerns over the depreciation of rupee, the RBI has cut interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent in a bid to further bolster economic growth, which rose to a six-quarter high of 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of the current financial year.
Shrugging off concerns over the depreciation of rupee, the RBI has cut interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent in a bid to further bolster economic growth, which rose to a six-quarter high of 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of the current financial year.
The consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation hitting an all-time low in October would encourage the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the policy repo rate in its upcoming December 3-5 meeting. However, the July-September GDP growth, expected to be above 7 per cent, may act as a deterrent.
'The government's decision to keep interest rates unchanged on small savings schemes will certainly constrain banks' ability to cut deposit rates further.'
Dr Nagesh Kumar, one of the three new MPC members, wanted the MPC to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
Activity in the corporate bond market is set to gain momentum following a 25-bp policy repo rate cut by the rate-setting panel of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). State-owned public cebPower Finance Corporation (PFC) and Small Industries Development Bank of India (Sidbi) are planning to raise up to Rs 11,500 crore through bonds on Tuesday as issuers expect borrowing costs to ease.
As the rupee remains under pressure due to several headwinds and the uncertainty around the India-US trade deal, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been stepping in only to calm volatility, not to stop the fall.
Sanjay Malhotra has made structural changes to banking regulation to bring down costs and increase efficiency. Plus, he kicked off a benign interest regime. But there are challenges ahead.
The government on Tuesday appointed three external members -- Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya and Nagesh Kumar -- to the RBI's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee for four years. The central government has reconstituted the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of RBI, the finance ministry said in a statement. Ram Singh is the director of the Delhi School of Economics, Saugata Bhattacharya is an economist, and Nagesh Kumar is the director and Chief Executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development, New Delhi.
From the Sensex pack, Eternal, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Trent, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Asian Paints, Adani Ports, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries, ITC, PowerGrid, Tata Motors Ltd's Commercial Vehicles business, and Bajaj Finserv were the gainers. Infosys, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra, Titan, UltraTech Cement, Maruti Suzuki India, and Larsen & Toubro were the laggards.
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra, and Deputy Governors Poonam Gupta, T Rabi Sankar, Swaminathan J, and S C Murmu on Friday addressed issues during the post-policy media interaction.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the repo rate cut in the February meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) was due to inflation aligning with the target and recognising the fact that monetary policy is forward-looking.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 5.5 per cent for the second consecutive time, citing concerns over tariff uncertainties.
Ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy review in the first week of December, major public sector non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) - the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Nabard), Small Industries Development Bank of India (Sidbi), Power Finance Corporation (PFC), and Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) - plan to raise up to Rs 24,000 crore together through bond issuancesk.
The rupee breached 90-levels against the greenback for the first time on Wednesday, falling 6 paise to 90.02 in early trade, as banks kept buying US dollars at higher levels and FII outflows continued.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
The Indian economy recorded a six-quarter high growth of 8.2 per cent in July-September, as factories churned out more products in anticipation of a consumption boost from the GST rate cut, according to government data.
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