Indian information technology (IT) services companies reported lacklustre growth in the second quarter, at a time when the macroeconomic environment did not deteriorate further. HCLTech emerged the best performer among India's top six IT services firms with a constant-currency growth rate of 4.6 per cent, even though uncertainties continued to persist.
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This marks a rebound after more than two years of underperformance during a strong rally in smallcap stocks.
Mutual funds' largecap investment universe is expected to see seven changes in the upcoming stock reclassification exercise by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). According to a report by IIFL Securities, Hero MotoCorp, Zydus Lifesciences, JSW Energy, NHPC, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Bosch and Samvardhana Motherson are expected to earn upgrades in the revised list of largecap, midcap and smallcap stocks set to be released in the first week of July. Amfi revises the list at the start of January and July every year based on the previous six-month performance of the stock.
New investors or those with lower-than-planned exposure should add US-oriented funds through SIPs.
Investors having a moderate-risk profile can use these funds in their retirement portfolios.
'Earnings growth will be the main driver of India's market in 2026, with profits expected to rise 9% to 10% in H2 FY26 and accelerate to 12% to 15% in FY27.'
Net inflows into two of the 'lower risk' equity funds - largecaps and flexicaps - outpaced the flows into smallcap funds during January 2024 for the first time in 17 months. This is an indication that investors may now be shifting to the relatively safer largecap stocks after a sharp run up in the mid and smallcap spaces. Net inflows into large and flexicap funds were at Rs 3,730 crore last month against Rs 3,260 crore by smallcap schemes.
The rally in the equity markets in the second half of 2023 has led to a sharp surge in the cutoff for stocks to qualify as largecaps and midcaps. On the latest list put out by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi), the smallest largecap stock now has a market capitalisation (m-cap) of Rs 67,000 crore, 35 per cent higher than in July 2023. In the case of midcaps, the cutoff has surged 26 per cent to Rs 22,000 crore.
'Investors should focus on largecap funds, flexicap funds, business cycle funds, or hybrid-category funds.'
Net inflows into equity mutual funds (MFs) moderated for the second straight month in September, declining 9 per cent during the month to Rs 30,422 crore. The slowdown came as redemptions from active equity schemes rose 30 per cent month-on-month (M-o-M) to a one-year high of around Rs 36,000 crore.
With gains of over 28 per cent, Hero MotoCorp has emerged as the best-performing largecap automotive stock over the past three months. The rally has been driven by an improved outlook for the rural segment, higher demand during the ongoing festival season, and rising affordability following cuts in goods and services tax (GST) rates.
'Investors should consider small and midcaps only if they can handle volatility and have a longer investment horizon.'
'Defence, capital goods, engineering, capital market-related stocks, autos, and cement sectors are my bullish bets for Samvat 2082.'
'The primary market's rhythm mirrors investor confidence. While sentiment may appear cautious, it reflects maturity, not weakness.'
The buyback comes at a time when Infosys shares have declined 19 per cent so far this year.
These stocks offer the best combination of maximum 'buy' recommendations from brokerages and share price upside over the next 12 months.
'From tariff tensions and border skirmishes to unrest in West Asia.' 'The worst may be behind us. But any further upmove will now have to come from earnings.'
'Midcap and smallcap indices are trading in the expensive zone.'
Indian information-technology (IT) service providers are likely to report another quarter (July-September) of low, single-digit growth owing to macro uncertainties, chiefly emanating from America, with no respite in sight even in the second half of the year.
From the Sensex firms, HCL Tech, Infosys, Power Grid, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank were among the major laggards. However, Titan, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti and Axis Bank were among the gainers.
Following the sharp run in markets, valuations across the board have become elevated. The National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index now trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24.3 times, 18 per cent higher than this year's low of 20.5 times. The valuation expansion in the broader markets has been sharper.
Mutual funds (MFs) have significantly increased their ownership across market segments, but the midcap space stands out with comparatively higher growth. Data reveals that the number of midcap companies with over a fifth of MF ownership has doubled from nine in March 2022 to 18 by March 2025. In contrast, largecap stocks saw only a marginal rise, from three to four such companies during the same period.
Ask rediffGURU Reetika Sharma your insurance, mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
Global funds' assets under custody (AUC) in India have been flat this year, with a Rs 2 trillion drop in information technology (IT) holdings offset by gains in financial stocks. AUC is the total market value of equities held by FPIs.
Despite multiple headwinds at the start of 2023, the Indian markets delivered a strong performance, posting 19-20 per cent growth for the year. Even as new records were set, investor sentiment remains strong going into 2024, given the lower inflation, expectations of steady to lower interest rates, higher economic growth, and strong inflows. However, the overriding concern for most brokerages is valuations.
Majority of equity fund managers were able to squeeze in some extra returns over their benchmarks in 2024-25 (FY25). While some managed to do so by delivering outsized returns during the equity market rally in the first half of the year (H1FY25), others succeeded by limiting the downside during the market downturn.
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'A staggered investment approach (using SIP or STP) can help investors benefit from this opportunity while reducing timing risk.'
The 100-stock largecap basket of Mutual funds (MFs) has seen a major reshuffle in the latest semi-annual reclassification with seven midcap stocks and four new listings earning the largecap tag. According to a report from Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research, the midcap stocks that have been upgraded include CG Power, Rail Vikas Nigam, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, Polycab India, Indus Towers, Cummins India, and Info Edge.
The recent selloff in the Indian equity market has been far more painful for mid and smallcap stocks compared to largecap stocks. The benchmark BSE Sensex is now down 9.5 per cent from its record monthly closing of 84,300 at the end of September last year. In the same period, the BSE MidCap has lost 17 per cent of its value, while the BSE SmallCap has corrected by 17.1 per cent.
Largecap companies are generally less vulnerable to economic slowdowns than their mid- and smallcap counterparts.
'As long as Sebi maintains transparency and market stability, the Jane Street episode is unlikely to deter long-term foreign capital.'
Indian information technology (IT) service providers are expected to deliver low single-digit sequential growth in the first quarter (April-June) of 2025-26 (FY26), even as macroeconomic uncertainties continue to persist due to the volatile geopolitical environment.
Inflows into equity mutual fund (MF) schemes declined in May, logging their lowest tally in 13 months at Rs 19,013 crore. It came even as the gross systematic investment plan (SIP) inflows surged to a record high of Rs 26,688 crore.
Data from Value Research analysed on five-year, three-year and one-year performances of active equity schemes to pick the best performers in popular scheme categories.
Equity mutual fund (MF) schemes were flush with cash at the start of this month, even as fresh investments shrank in February. As of February 28, equity schemes from the top 20 fund houses held 6.8 per cent of their portfolios in cash, up from 6.1 per cent in January and 5.9 per cent in December 2024, according to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
'We continue to view India as a standout within EM.'
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'Entering India is exciting, but it's also challenging. You have to be prepared for long-term investment.'
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