The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year (FY27) by 40 basis points to 7.1 per cent, acknowledging the resilience of domestic economic activity despite global headwinds and geopolitical tensions.
Industry leaders at MRAM Expo 2026 highlighted that India's maintenance economy has the potential to unlock a 1 per cent GDP opportunity. This growth can be achieved by addressing productivity losses from equipment breakdowns, unplanned downtime, and inefficient assets through smarter asset management practices. The NITI Aayog also supports AI-based predictive maintenance for resilient infrastructure, while the Indian Asset Performance Management market is projected for substantial growth by 2033.
Opposition MPs have voiced strong criticism against the government's new fee on UPI payments exceeding Rs 2,000 to merchants, calling it "anti-people" and expressing widespread "outrage". The issue was raised in a Parliamentary Standing Committee meeting, where concerns were also flagged regarding the methodology of GDP growth calculation and the government's stance on Virtual Digital Assets.
'The fundamental issue that I have raised, how come India's GDP in current prices went down from Rs 86 lakh crore down to Rs 80 lakh crore -- a staggering erasure of Rs 6 lakh crore. This disappearance of Rs 6 lakh crore has not been answered by anyone.'
Fitch Ratings has increased India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year (FY'27) to 6.9 per cent, up from 6.4 per cent, attributing the revision to robust economic growth in the June quarter and overall economic resilience. The agency also anticipates the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will raise interest rates by 0.25 per cent in October.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi celebrated India's 7.8 per cent GDP growth in the April-June quarter, attributing it to the collective strength of the people despite global uncertainties. He criticised "doomsayers" as the economy showed resilience, exceeding expectations even amidst international conflicts and supply chain issues.
Moody's Ratings has sharply increased India's GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026-27 to 7 per cent, making it the fastest among G20 economies, driven by economic resilience despite the Middle East conflict. However, the agency flagged significant inflation risks stemming from elevated oil prices and potential El Nino disruptions.
Market consensus suggest earnings growth of 11-12 per cent for large caps, 14-15 per cent for mid-caps and 18-19 per cent for small caps over the next two years.
India's statistics ministry has defended its newly released economic growth estimates, stating that revisions to last year's GDP and the divergence between different price measures reflect updated data and estimation techniques rather than an attempt to artificially boost headline growth.
Analysts predict that the Indian stock market's sentiment this week will be primarily influenced by the domestic GDP data announcement, crude oil prices, and the crucial US non-farm payrolls report.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi lauded India's 7.8 per cent GDP growth, achieved despite global conflicts and instability. He emphasised the importance of Swadeshi and self-reliance for a developed India by its 100th year of Independence, urging citizens to avoid unnecessary foreign expenditures.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on Friday described BRICS as an important global forum, highlighting the grouping's growing demographic and economic weight and noting that its members account for around half of the world's population and 40 percent of global GDP.
India is proposing the Data Empowerment and Protection Architecture (DEPA) for AI Training, a national framework designed to enable startups, researchers, and companies to train AI models using data from hospitals, banks, and public agencies while ensuring privacy and security. This initiative aims to unlock significant AI-driven value for India's GDP by 2030.
The Reserve Bank of India has marginally increased its GDP forecast for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent while slightly lowering the inflation projection to 5 per cent. The central bank noted that while domestic economic activity shows resilience, global turbulence, particularly re-escalating conflicts and volatile oil prices, continues to pose risks to the inflation outlook.
India's services sector activity expanded at its strongest pace in four months in October, driven by robust demand and new orders, while experiencing a significant easing of cost pressures. Despite this, job creation slowed, and businesses maintained a cautious outlook.
J&K Bank MD and CEO Amitava Chatterjee defended the surcharge on UPI transactions above Rs 2,000, stating it is necessary for the system's long-term sustainability. He also discussed the shift of household savings to mutual funds, the bank's profit growth, and India's consumption-based economy.
Cisco Chairman and CEO Chuck Robbins announced plans to expand the company's silicon design team in India, citing the country's pro-growth strategy, scale, ambition, and engineering focus as key reasons for its strategic importance.
RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta stated that India's economic growth momentum remains strong despite various global and domestic shocks, attributing this resilience to a diversified growth base and improved policy responses. She highlighted the economy's 7.8 per cent growth in Q1 and continued momentum into Q2, suggesting potential upgrades to growth forecasts.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran stated that the second half of the current fiscal year (FY27) is expected to be challenging due to increased downside risks to global growth and rising interest rates worldwide.
Preeti Lobana, Google India VP, stated on Wednesday that Google views AI as an "economic equaliser" and a democratic technology. Speaking at Google Cloud Day, she highlighted AI's potential to empower businesses, especially SMEs, in India's journey towards Viksit Bharat 2047. Google has committed USD 15 billion to scale India's digital and AI infrastructure, including an AI hub in Visakhapatnam, to support the IndiaAI Mission.
'In the past, when the Indian markets have been flat for two years, the next year's returns have ranged between 5 per cent and 55 per cent.'
'Once this entire AI and tech driven euphoria in the Western markets sees a correction there will be a re-evaluation of the Indian equity market and inflows will resume.'
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran stated that 2026 marks an inflection point for India, akin to 1991, necessitating the country to become globally indispensable in carefully chosen sectors to build strategic leverage for accessing geopolitically contested resources amidst a series of external shocks.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 48,056 crore from Indian equities in October, driven by elevated crude oil prices, Middle East tensions, inflation concerns, and weak corporate earnings, though selling pressure moderated towards the end of the month.
Union Road Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari has dismissed criticism against blending 20 per cent ethanol in petrol fuel as a 'paid campaign'. He highlighted that millions of vehicles are already running on E19-20 blends without widespread issues. Gadkari also addressed concerns about highway quality, promising improvements within two years and detailing plans for monitoring and penalising contractors. He further elaborated on the economic impact of infrastructure development and the expansion of India's highway network.
Economic think tank GTRI has urged the Indian government to withdraw the proposed UPI charges, set to begin on October 15, arguing that the digital payment system should remain free for merchants and consumers. GTRI warns that these charges could lead to higher prices, reduced earnings for small businesses, and weakened household demand, while also benefiting international card networks by eroding UPI's price advantage. The think tank also called for an independent audit of UPI's running costs.
India's economy in FY26 saw significant momentum from investment demand, with gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) accelerating to 8.2 per cent, while private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) also grew steadily, according to provisional estimates.
Tata Sons Chairman N Chandrasekaran affirmed India's robust economic position amidst global uncertainty, emphasising that energy security, advanced manufacturing jobs, and investment in human capital are 'critical' for sustaining the nation's long-term growth.
'The remaining 30% are scared they will be shot at and they too will shell out the money soon.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced that India's real GDP grew by 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter, surpassing the RBI's forecast. She attributed this strong performance to government reforms and agile economic management, reaffirming the government's commitment to expanding economic opportunities.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded on Wednesday, driven by a decline in crude oil prices below USD 100 per barrel and optimism surrounding a potential de-escalation of the conflict in West Asia.
India's services sector experienced its strongest growth in three months in September, with the HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index rising to 55.2, driven by a sharp increase in new orders and strengthening domestic demand.
Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw warned of increased global turbulence from tech disruptions, AI, and financial risks in the coming years. He stated that India is strengthening its economic and technological resilience to protect its growth from external shocks. India is focusing on domestic manufacturing and design in critical tech areas while maintaining global integration, with trust becoming as crucial as cost in supply chains.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated that negotiations for the India-US trade agreement have reached a 'plateau', indicating limited scope for further concessions from either side, while also highlighting the US's aim to reduce its trade deficit with India.
Former NITI Aayog vice-chairman Rajiv Kumar has urged the government to maintain zero-fee UPI transactions for several more years, arguing that the benefits of UPI as a public good outweigh the costs. This comes amidst the government's recent decision to introduce a 0.4% fee on person-to-merchant UPI transactions above Rs 2,000 from October 15, a move that has drawn criticism.
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has commenced its three-day meeting, with a majority of economists and bankers anticipating a 25 basis point rate hike to counter escalating inflation risks, particularly from West Asia conflicts.
India's current account deficit could widen to 1.7 per cent of GDP, or about $71 billion, if crude oil prices stay above $90 a barrel for a significant part of the second half of FY27.
India's economy recorded a robust 7.8 per cent growth in the April-June quarter of fiscal year 2026-27, surpassing both market expectations and the Reserve Bank of India's forecast. This strong performance positions India as the world's fastest-growing major economy, demonstrating resilience despite global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, including the conflict in Iran. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation highlighted the sustained growth momentum amidst global headwinds.
A 25-basis-point increase would restore some real monetary restraint when expected inflation has risen, liquidity remains easy and growth is strong, points out Amarendu Nandy.
'They are claiming that they are very good in governance. All governments do propaganda. This is the propaganda of the government that they are doing very well, in spite of all the troubles.'
