Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil price fluctuations, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will significantly influence the Indian equity market this week.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 27,048 crore from Indian equities so far in May, bringing the total outflows for 2026 to Rs 2.2 lakh crore, driven by global macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be major driving factors for market movement this week, analysts said. Unabated capital infusion by domestic institutional investors have supported the positive trend in the stock market last week, traders said.
Indian benchmark stock indices, Sensex and Nifty, extended their winning streak to a fourth day, with Nifty surging 1.60 per cent, driven by a sharp decline in crude oil prices and renewed foreign fund inflows.
After four consecutive months of withdrawals, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) injected Rs 20,200 crore into Indian equities in July, driven by attractive valuations, improving corporate earnings, and a more favourable global environment.
After four consecutive months of outflows, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned net buyers in Indian equities in July, investing over Rs 15,157 crore, driven by improving domestic macroeconomic indicators, a stable rupee, and better global risk sentiment.
Analysts predict that the Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, the evolving situation in West Asia involving the US-Iran conflict, and crude oil prices will be the primary factors influencing investor sentiment in the Indian stock market this week.
Indian stock markets, including the Sensex and Nifty, rebounded significantly, driven by a decline in crude oil prices and positive global cues stemming from hopes of diplomatic progress in US-Iran negotiations.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty recorded sharp gains, rising over 1 per cent, driven by strong performances in IT stocks, HDFC Bank, and renewed foreign fund inflows, despite mixed global cues and elevated crude oil prices.
Foreign investors have aggressively sold off Indian equities, withdrawing over 48,213 crore in the first 10 days of April, following a record 1.17 lakh crore outflow in March, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, rising crude oil prices, and global inflation concerns.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn over Rs 62,853 crore from Indian equities in the first fortnight of June, bringing the total outflows for 2026 to Rs 2.87 lakh crore, surpassing the entire 2025 figure, driven by geopolitical tensions, global economic growth concerns, and a weakening rupee.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, experienced a significant downturn as escalating tensions in West Asia led to a sharp surge in crude oil prices, coupled with fresh foreign fund outflows and a weakening rupee.
Inflation data, trading activity of foreign investors and global trends would dictate sentiment in the stock market this week, according to analysts.
'The market is currently neither cheap enough to be exciting about nor expensive enough to worry about.'
Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Ridham Desai, predict that the next phase of the Indian market rally will be primarily driven by the April-June quarter (Q1FY27) corporate earnings season and the performance of the monsoon.
Indian investors have seen their wealth erode by a staggering Rs 16.77 lakh crore over four trading sessions, as the markets faced deep losses driven by elevated crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions, persistent foreign fund outflows, and a record-low rupee.
Maruti Suzuki, India's leading passenger vehicle manufacturer, is experiencing robust growth in the June quarter, driven by a recovery in the entry-level segment, easing supply constraints, and significant market share gains. Despite potential headwinds from El Nio, analysts remain optimistic about the company's future performance.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 19,837 crore from Indian equities in the first two trading sessions of April, extending a significant selling trend from March, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, rising crude oil prices, and a depreciating rupee.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 14,231 crore from Indian equities so far in May, extending the total outflow for 2026 to over Rs 2 lakh crore, driven by persistent global macroeconomic uncertainties including inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks.
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), driven by the popularity of mutual funds, have emerged as significant stabilising forces for Indian capital markets amidst global volatility and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) outflows, according to Sebi whole-time member Amarjeet Singh.
'India is an equity market with a breadth and depth of companies to invest in.'
Equity markets this week will turn their focus on the RBI's interest rate decision, Q1 earnings from several blue-chip firms and tariff-related news for further cues, analysts said. Moreover, trading activity of foreign investors and trends in global equity markets will also drive investors' sentiment.
'I don't see fear becoming a dominant factor for retail investors.'
Inflation data, quarterly earnings and global trends will be the major driving factors for stock markets this week, analysts said. Moreover, the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence the equity market trends.
Investor interest in precious metal exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rebounded sharply in June, with silver ETFs attracting an estimated 4,900 crore and gold ETFs around 2,900 crore in net inflows, following a significant correction in gold and silver prices.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) withdrew nearly Rs 33,000 crore from Indian equities in May, bringing the total outflow for 2026 to Rs 2.25 lakh crore, driven by weak earnings growth, rupee depreciation, and more attractive opportunities in other global markets.
Analysts predict that inflation data, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and crude oil price trends will be the primary factors influencing the movement of Indian stock markets. Geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran deal, and foreign investor activity will also play a crucial role.
Indian stock markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran situation, and crude oil prices this week, with analysts also highlighting the influence of the rupee-dollar trend, foreign investor activity, and upcoming inflation data.
Trading sentiment in the equity market will be guided by macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and quarterly earnings from IT major TCS this week, analysts said. Stock markets would also be tracking trading activity of foreign investors who remained net sellers of Indian equities in September.
'While investors need to be prepared for making some losses, they should not lose big money chasing euphoria amid fear of missing out.'
Foreign investors have withdrawn a record Rs 1.14 lakh crore from Indian equities in March, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weakening rupee, and concerns about crude oil prices.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant tumble in early trade, driven by surging global oil prices, continuous outflows by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), and persistent geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in West Asia.
The US Fed's interest rate decision will be the major factor dictating trends in the domestic equity market this week, with global movements and foreign investor activity also influencing sentiment, according to analysts. Stock markets ended the last week on a subdued note, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closing flat.
The Indian rupee depreciated 16 paise to settle at a fresh lifetime low of 96.86 against the US dollar, marking its ninth consecutive session of decline, driven by elevated global crude prices and a strong dollar.
The Indian rupee depreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching a new all-time low due to rising oil prices, a strong dollar, and ongoing geopolitical concerns. Domestic equity market declines and foreign investment outflows further contributed to the rupee's weakness.
The Indian rupee plummeted to a new all-time closing low of 95.81 against the US dollar, driven by surging crude oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, and a strengthening dollar index.
Stock investors will track the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, Brent crude oil prices, inflation data and the US Fed interest rate decision for further cues this week, analysts said. Tariff-related news would also dictate trends in the equity market, experts noted.
FPIs have already withdrawn Rs 2.6 trillion from Indian equities in 2026, exceeding the outflows recorded in any previous full calendar year.
International mutual fund schemes have seen a significant resurgence in investor interest, attracting approximately Rs 7,600 crore in net inflows over the past year, a stark reversal from previous outflows, driven by their strong outperformance against domestic markets and limited AI-linked investment opportunities in India.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn nearly Rs 43,000 crore from Indian equities in the first week of June, contributing to a total outflow of Rs 2.67 lakh crore in 2026, driven by a global shift towards technology and AI-linked opportunities and persistent rupee depreciation.
