Two-wheeler exports from India have decreased by 20 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to 1.69 million units in the first half (H1) of 2023-24 (FY24) due to a challenging geopolitical situation and foreign exchange (forex) crises in key markets such as South Asia, industry body Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) said on Monday. On the other hand, passenger vehicle (PV) exports in H1FY24 increased by 5 per cent to 336,754 units because the key markets are much more diversified worldwide, Vinod Aggarwal, president, Siam, told reporters during a press conference. The Russia-Ukraine war, which started in February 2022, has brought significant instability to global fuel prices.
The slowdown in corporate revenue growth over the last one year has begun to reflect in India Inc's capital expenditure, or capex. The country's top listed companies are going slow on fresh investment in capacity expansion, in line with a deceleration in their top line growth. The combined fixed assets of the listed companies, excluding banking, finance services and insurance (BFSI) and the government-owned oil & gas firms, were up 10.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) during April-September 2023 (H1FY24) - the slowest in 18 months - as against 21.1 per cent Y-o-Y growth in H2FY23 (October 2022-March 2023) and 11.6 per cent growth in the April-September 2022 period (H1FY23).
UPL, the country's largest agrochemical company, had a weak July-September quarter (Q2), reporting a sharp fall in revenues across geographies. Overall, the revenues were down 19 per cent on the back of lower agrochemical prices and inventory destocking. While the overall volumes were down 7 per cent, prices fell by 15 per cent. Volume decline in the European market was on the back of high channel inventory and product bans while in India the fall by 27 per cent was on account of muted demand for segments such as cotton and pulses.
Although the third quarter of financial year (2023-2024) FY24 (Q3FY24) was marginally below expectations, Info Edge (India) is witnessing strong investment trends and hitting new highs. The big driver is optimism about a pickup in the jobs market, which benefits Naukri.com and could mean upgrades in Q4FY24 expectations. The JobSpeak Index, which Naukri.com releases on a monthly basis, is showing a "transformative shift".
Growing concerns over slower-than-expected margin recovery, amid weak deposit growth have caught HDFC Bank's investors off guard. HDFC Bank's stock on Wednesday plunged nearly 9 per cent to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,527 on the BSE after reporting weaker-than-expected earnings in the third quarter (October - December) of the current financial year (Q3FY24). The shares of India's biggest private lender closed at Rs 1,536.9, down 8.46 per cent.
Most analysts have downgraded the stock of SBI Cards and Payments (SBI Card) as the credit card issuer posted weak results during the December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The sub-par show, analysts said, was for the eighth straight quarter. With this, they have slashed their earnings estimates by as much as 20 per cent over FY24-26 amid near-term pressure points in the company's growth outlook.
Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) - the market leader in small cars - is eyeing the top spot in the sports utility vehicle (SUV) segment within a year - with a 33 per cent share of the pie. The company has been selling two SUVs - the Brezza and the Grand Vitara - and will start deliveries of the Jimny and the Fronx from March-end, and has set a target of growing its share from the current 11.5 per cent of the SUV market to 33 per cent by the end of 2023-24. The SUV segment is roughly about 42 per cent of the total passenger vehicle market, or around 1.3 million units.
The Budget has given signals that India is sensitive to the US needs and willing to walk the extra mile, but if need be, we should respond in equal measure as a sovereign nation, notes Ajay Srivastava.
Shares of Bajaj Finance surged over 6 per cent on Thursday after the diversified non-banking finance company reported an 18 per cent increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,308 crore for the December quarter. The stock rallied 6.33 per cent intraday to touch Rs 8,249.95 - a 52-week high -- on the BSE.
As on April 1, income tax arrears have increased to Rs 43 trillion from Rs 24 trillion on April 1, 2023.
The filing of Swiggy's DRHP has led to direct comparisons with Zomato, which is a direct competitor in food delivery and the fast-growing quick-commerce segment where Blinkit (owned by Zomato) faces off against Instamart (and Zepto). In Q-commerce, Flipkart, Amazon, Reliance and Big Basket are all entering the space. All of them have deep pockets, hence competitive intensity will rise going forward.
India's corporate sector is likely to report a slowdown in revenue growth and earnings for the July-September 2023 period (Q2FY24), according to earnings estimates by brokerages, after the country's top listed companies posted higher than expected profits for the first quarter. The combined net profit of Nifty50 companies, based on brokerage estimates, is expected to have grown by 19.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 1.75 trillion in Q2FY24 - a sharp deceleration from 37.6 per cent Y-o-Y growth in the combined earnings of index companies in the April-June 2023 period. According to estimates, the combined earnings in the second quarter would be down 8.8 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis and the lowest in the past three quarters.
Industry insiders in India warn that any such move in the pharmaceutical sector could be counterproductive for the US as it may face increased drug shortages if tariffs are imposed on such imports.
The stock of United Spirits, the country's largest liquor company by market capitalisation (mcap), has gained 11 per cent over the past week on double-digit growth guidance, rising premiumisation trend, operationally in-line performance in the March (Q4FY24) quarter and a rally in consumer stocks. The revenue growth of the company came in at 7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) mirroring the growth of the prestige and above (P&A) segment. This segment comprising premium brands accounts for 88 per cent of the revenues.
With India's EV penetration at just 2.5 per cent, the market presents an opportunity -- provided Tesla gets its pricing right.
Brokerages have maintained their ratings and target prices on FSN E-Commerce Ventures, the parent company of Nykaa, after the fashion and beauty online retailer posted in-line numbers during the October-December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). They have, however, cut earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) estimates after weak demand weighed across line items in Q3. "While revenue growth was healthy at 22 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), gross margins declined 90 basis points (bps), weighed by higher discounting in own brands and lower ad income.
ICICI Bank on Saturday said its March quarter consolidated net profit grew 18.5 per cent to Rs 11,672 crore, helped by lower provisions. On a standalone basis, the second largest private sector lender showed a 17.4 per cent growth in its profit after tax at Rs 10,708 crore for the reporting quarter against Rs 9,122 crore in the year-ago period. For fiscal 2023-24, its standalone net profit grew to Rs 40,888 crore from Rs 31,896 crore a year ago.
The country's largest car maker Maruti Suzuki India on Friday reported a 47.8 per cent rise in net profit for the March quarter of FY24 to Rs 3,877.8 crore, on account of higher sales volume and favourable commodity prices.
India's third largest IT company HCL Technologies on Friday reported a flat year-on-year growth in net profit in the March quarter at Rs 3,986 crore. However, the company posted an 8.4 per cent decline in net profit on a sequential basis, amid rising employee cost and tightening IT spends around the world. The company described the performance as "decent" in view of the global macroeconomic conditions.
The Centre's fiscal deficit at the end of the first seven months of financial year 2024-25 touched 46.5 per cent of the full-year target, government data showed on Friday. In absolute terms, the fiscal deficit -- the gap between government's expenditure and revenue -- was at Rs 7,50,824 crore during April-October period, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA). The deficit stood at 45 per cent of the Budget Estimates (BE) in the corresponding period of 2023-24.
Grasim Industries has announced a rights issue of around Rs 4,000 crore with the promoters committed to fully subscribing to their entitlements and to covering any unsubscribed portion. This is to part-fund capital expenditure (capex) of Rs 10,000 crore in a new foray into the paints business. The company has already invested Rs 3,640 crore in the paints business (by Q1FY24). The management has outlined a capex of Rs 5,700 crore for FY24, which includes Rs 4,280 crore allocated for the paints business, of which Rs 1,050 crore has already been spent in Q1FY24.
Traction for its specialty portfolio, a strong showing in the domestic market, and better regulatory compliance are positives for the country's largest pharmaceutical (pharma) company, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries. Given the triggers, some brokerages have increased their earnings per share estimates and target price for 2024-25 (FY25). This should sustain the momentum for the stock, which has been one of the major pharma gainers in 2023-24 (FY24), rising 57 per cent. It is currently trading at Rs 1,547 per share.
The upstream oil and gas (O&G) sector has delivered a stellar performance in the stock market in the recent past. The O&G sector is dominated by PSUs and despite the imposition of a windfall tax, profitability has been impressive. Oil India Limited (OIL) is particularly favoured by investors.
Mutual Fund inflows in FY25 have already reached two-thirds of the total inflows seen in the entire FY24, with net inflows standing at Rs 1.3 trillion.
India's steel market is out of step with global trends. Global demand is weak with China at a huge supply surplus to its domestic demand, pushing down global steel prices. India's domestic demand for steel is strong, given the continuing infrastructure push and is likely to accelerate as urbanisation improves, and the auto sector continues to grow alongside the infrastructure push.
The hospitality industry has seen plenty of interest since the catastrophic impact of the pandemic, which led to losses in FY21. The hotel industry market cap has more than tripled since 2019 on the combination of a strong earnings rebound and positive surprises, as well as three recent listings. The industry has good tailwinds. The anticipation is, demand for rooms will outrun supply for a few years despite capacity expansions.
Alloting more funds for MNREGA and PM-KISAN could wipe out the entire additional money that the Centre may have for FY25.
The June quarter is usually considered as a seasonally strong period for the IT sector.
The management of Tata Communications presented its product-to-platform strategy and explained how it hopes to grow its new products and portfolios, and geographies. The management targets doubling of data revenue by FY27 to ~28,000 crore (implied 18 per cent annual revenue growth). The DPS (Digital Platform & Services) segment is likely to contribute over 60 per cent of data revenue.
The combined net profit of "early bird" companies, those that have declared their quarterly results, rose for the third consecutive quarter in July-September 2023 (Q2FY24). But the figures suggest a continued slowdown in revenue growth and stagnation in earnings over recent quarters. This slowdown is severe for companies in the manufacturing and non-financial service sectors.
HDFC Life Insurance Company (HDFC Life) delivered a strong performance in the December quarter of the current financial year (Q3FY25), exceeding market expectations with robust earnings growth. The company reported a 13.7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in net profit to Rs 414.9 crore in the quarter. The value of new business (VNB) rose 8.6 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 930 crore, compared to Rs 856 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
India's corporate sector, including public sector enterprises (PSEs), continues to go slow on investments and capital expenditure (capex). According to data from Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), corporate investments declined for the second consecutive quarter in the April-June period (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24). After a contraction of 0.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in the 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter, corporate investments likely fell 6.2 per cent Y-o-Y in Q1FY24, write Nikhil Gupta and Tanisha Ladhaa of MOFSL in their recent report on corporate investments.
Crude and gas supply concerns have eased amid reports that Israel and Hamas have struck a peace deal. The International Energy Agency estimates oil demand may drop slightly in calendar 24 but Opec probably has enough pricing power to maintain $80/ barrel Brent prices. Russia's share of India's crude imports remained strong at about 35 per cent in September 2023.
The October-December quarter (Q3FY25) results of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) indicated weak demand, with urban growth muted and rural showing recovery. Consolidated revenue grew by 1.6 per cent (volume was flat) to Rs 15,818 crore, due to price hikes. Prices of key raw materials such as palm oil and tea remained elevated, leading to compression of gross margin.
The growth in personal loans for fintech major Paytm may remain muted in the future and not replicate a three-digit year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth that it recorded in the previous years, a person familiar with the matter said. Sources said the personal loans book may grow in the range of 30 to 40 per cent Y-o-Y on its current base. On a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis, the number of personal loans the Noida-based fintech company disbursed has dropped 20 per cent from 0.3 million in the first quarter of this financial year (Q1FY24) to 0.24 million in Q2FY24, according to regulatory filings.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) added another 102 metric tonnes to the domestically held gold in the April-September period, as per a disclosure made on Tuesday. The overall quantity of the precious metal stored in local safes stood at 510.46 metric tonnes as of September 30, which was up from over 408 metric tonnes as on March 31, 2024. The central bank said it added another 32 metric tonnes of gold reserves in the six-month period to take the overall tonnage to 854.73 metric tonnes, as per the half yearly report on management of foreign exchange reserves.
'It has also outlived its initial purpose of reducing physical gold imports.'
The Interim Budget for 2024-25 (FY25) to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume 10-10.5 per cent nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth against 8.9 per cent estimated for FY24 by the National Statistical Office (NSO). "We were waiting for the First Advance Estimates GDP numbers for FY24. "We will finalise the nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 Interim Budget in a couple of days.
IT service company Wipro on Friday reported 7.8 per cent year-on-year decline in its consolidated net profit for the March quarter to about Rs 2834.6 crore, and cautioned that the macroeconomic environment remains "uncertain". The Bengaluru-headquartered company, which recently saw a change of guard with Srinivas Pallia taking over at the helm as the new chief executive officer, has given an IT Services revenue growth guidance in the (-)1.5 per cent to +0.5 per cent band for June quarter on a constant currency basis.
The listed information technology (IT) subsidiaries of engineering giant Larsen & Toubro (L&T), LTIMindtree (LTIM) and L&T Technology Services, have seen sharp upmoves over the past fortnight, with returns ranging from 14 to 18 per cent. Both have outperformed the peer index, the National Stock Exchange Nifty IT, which has gained about 8 per cent, while the benchmark Nifty 50 is up 4 per cent during this period.
