Equity investors will track the trading activity of foreign investors, global trends and ongoing earnings results for further cues, and benchmark indices may continue to witness consolidation in a holiday-shortened week amid the monthly derivatives expiry, analysts said. Markets fell sharply last week amid massive foreign capital outflows and dismal Q2 earnings so far. Weakness in the markets might continue in the near term amid cautiousness among investors ahead of the US presidential election early next month, an expert said.
The group, headed by former RBI deputy governor H R Khan, has also pitched for liberalised investment cap, review of prohibited sectors for foreign investment for FPIs, permitting FPIs for off-market transactions and review of restriction on sovereign wealth funds for investment in corporate debt securities.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has notified stricter timelines of just seven working days for foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to disclose vital information. This could include informing their custodians about any false or misleading information about the fund or disclosing any change in structure or common ownership, or control of the investor group. The new changes have been brought into effect from March 14 through a notification amending the Sebi (FPIs) Regulations.
Shares worth over Rs 50,000 crore (or approximately $6 billion) are set to become freely tradable between now and April 10. Historically, such substantial volumes have been absorbed by a buoyant block-deal market.
India's stock markets are experiencing a shift in investor sentiment, with a 30 per cent surge in Chinese stocks, prompting investors to move money from domestic markets to China. This reversal of fortunes is a notable change from the past three years, where China's losses benefited India.
While Airtel has hiked the limit to 100 per cent in principle, the company needs to address some issues on overseas investment limits in subsidiaries, before the changes come into effect. Until then, the cap on foreign ownership will remain at 49 per cent under the automatic route.
Banking and financial stocks got more than their fair share of foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows in February. Overseas investors pumped in $3.56 billion into domestic equities last month. Of this $1.96 billion went into financial stocks, data analysed by Edelweiss shows. "The sector now has 34.8 per cent of FPI assets, up from 33.8 per cent in January.
Under its new chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has gravitated towards greater transparency and ease of doing business, setting an objective of "effective and optimum" regulation. On Monday, during its first board meeting under Pandey, the regulator has decided to constitute a high-level committee (HLC) to review conflicts of interest and unveiled initiatives to simplify regulatory processes.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 44,396 crore from Indian equities this month, driven by strength of the dollar, rising bond yields in the US, and expectations of a weak earnings season. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the month of December, data with the depositories showed.
Seasoned bureaucrat and a stickler for rules Finance Secretary Tuhin Kanta Pandey will be at the helm of capital market regulator, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), for three years. The 1987-batch Odisha-cadre Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officer, Pandey, would replace Madhabi Puri Buch, whose three-year term ends on Friday.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continues unabated, as they withdrew Rs 64,156 crore ($7.44 billion) this month so far on depreciation of the rupee, rise in the US bond yields and expectation of a tepid earning season. This came after an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
The finance ministry said the sharp inflows last fiscal were due to the government's policy initiatives and economic recovery.
Equity benchmark indices are facing massive corrections, with the NSE Nifty declining over 14 per cent from its lifetime high hit in September last year due to several negative triggers like stretched valuations, foreign fund exodus, disappointing quarterly earnings and rising global trade tensions dragging markets lower. The BSE benchmark Sensex hit its record peak of 85,978.25 on September 27 last year, and the Nifty also reached a lifetime high of 26,277.35 on the same day.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continued unabated, as they withdrew over Rs 7,300 crore (about $840 million) in the first week of this month due to global trade tensions, with the US imposing tariffs on countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China. This came following an outflow of Rs 78,027 crore in the entire January. Before that, they invested Rs 15,446 crore in December, data with the depositories showed.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, withdrawing shares worth Rs 58,711 crore in the month so far owing to escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the strong performance of the Chinese market. The outflow came following a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities, after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
The last time this happened was in 1996.
Overseas investors, as well as other key stakeholders, such as brokers, custodians, and clearing corporations, are yet to iron out critical issues, even as the shift towards a shorter trade settlement cycle approaches new phases. Several industry players said foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are still facing impediments over the trade confirmation timelines, foreign exchange (forex) bookings, and pre-funding requirements. This could potentially act as a roadblock when it comes to moving entirely to the new T+1 settlement cycle from next year.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
A special court in Mumbai has directed the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) to register a first information report (FIR) against former Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch and five other officials in connection with alleged stock market fraud and regulatory violations.
'The market's sharp decline recently has shaken the confidence of retail investors, leading to increased selling.'
Not just India, but Asian peers such as Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and The Philippines have seen sharp FPI outflows this year
The new proposal comes close on the heels of six measures introduced by Sebi to curb frenzy in index derivatives.
Foreign investors continued their relentless selling in the Indian equity markets in August, offloading shares worth Rs 21,201 crore due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, recession fears in the US and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. This came after an inflow of Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, data with the depositories showed.
The exodus of foreign investments from Indian equity markets continued unabated, with FPIs pulling out nearly Rs 20,000 crore in the last five trading sessions on higher valuations of domestic stocks and shifting their allocation to China. As a result, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned net sellers in the equity market, with total outflows reaching Rs 13,401 crore for 2024 so far. Going ahead, the FPI selling trend is likely to continue in the near term till data indicate the piossibility of a trend reversal.
Net flows from domestic institutional investors crossed Rs 5 trillion for the first time during a calendar year.
Fifteen companies have launched their initial public offerings (IPOs) in December 2024, making it the best month for public offerings since 1996. Collectively, they have raised Rs 25,425 crore, which also made December the best month in terms of the quantum of funds raised. In December 1996, 33 companies had raised Rs 931 crore.
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
After two months of net outflow, foreign investors turned buyers in June, infusing Rs 26,565 crore in Indian equities, driven by political stability and a sharp rebound in markets. Looking ahead, attention will gradually shift towards the budget and Q1 FY25 earnings, which could determine the sustainability of FPI flows, Vipul Bhowar, Director, Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
So far this month, another $4.5 billion (Rs 33,000 crore) has flown into domestic stocks.
'Stay disciplined, and remain invested.' 'Volatile times are the best to invest in structural opportunities at the right price.'
Among major gainers, Vedanta rose the most by 6.55 per cent, snapping its five-day losing streak.
Front-running is a fraudulent practice where traders exploit advance knowledge of large client orders for personal profit.
The rupee has depreciated by 0.6 per cent so far in the current financial year.
Foreign investors have adopted a cautious stance and infused Rs 7,320 crore in the Indian equities in August owing to high valuation of stocks and the unwinding of the Yen carry trade after Bank of Japan raised interest rates. This investment was way lower than Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, according to data with the depositories. While September is likely to see continued interest from FPIs, the flows would be shaped by a combination of domestic political stability, economic indicators, global interest rate movements, market valuations, sectoral preferences, and the attractiveness of the debt market, Vipul Bhowar, Director Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
Mutual funds (MFs) reinforced their record monthly inflows in October with an investment of Rs 87,000 crore (up to October 29), softening the downside pressure on domestic markets. Their prior record for monthly inflows was Rs 48,139 crore in May. This unprecedented monthly buying partially countered record monthly sales by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) of Rs 1.1 trillion last month.
Around Rs 1 trillion, or a fifth of the investments made by alternative investment funds (AIFs) are questionable in terms of the intent behind the investments and are under the scanner for circumvention of regulations, said Ananth Narayan, whole-time member of Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). AIFs are pooled investment vehicles that invest in a variety of assets including real estate, startups, unlisted companies, and derivative strategies in the listed space.
Foreign investors have injected close to Rs 33,700 crore in domestic equities in this month so far primarily due to interest rate cut in the US and resilience of the Indian market. This also marks the second highest inflow in a month in this year so far, the last one being in March, when Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) infused Rs 35,100 crore, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, the trend of FPIs buying is likely to continue in the coming days, V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said.
Market regulator Sebi on Tuesday said foreign investors from Mauritius will continue to be eligible for FPI registration with increased monitoring as per international norms. The announcement comes after the tax haven was put on the "grey list" of Financial Action Task Force (FATF) -- an inter-governmental policy making body that sets anti-money laundering standards.
According to experts, work from home, volatility in stock markets worldwide, and redemption pressures compelled investors to defer new investment plans.
On a five-day rolling basis, FPI selling is the highest in 24 years.
