Leading private banks in India, including HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank, experienced a decline in net interest margins (NIMs) during the second quarter of the financial year due to significant deposit mobilisation under the Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR (B), scheme. However, banks anticipate a recovery in margins in the coming quarters as these funds are deployed and the interest-rate cycle supports lending yields.
Growth in India's currency in circulation (CiC) has reached a five-year high, primarily due to deposits under the Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR(B), scheme, leading to a robust increase in reserve money, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 'State of the Economy' report.
Public and private sector banks in India experienced significant deposit growth in the July-September quarter of FY27, largely propelled by foreign currency non-resident (bank), or FCNR(B), deposits mobilised under the Reserve Bank of India's concessional swap window, which closed on August 31.
State Bank of India Chairman C S Setty stated that banks will take three to four months to deploy the significant funds mobilised through foreign currency non-resident (bank), or FCNR(B), deposits, which is unlikely to cause "abnormal lending". He also highlighted the need for agentic artificial intelligence (AI) costs to fall sharply for its widespread deployment in India, envisioning its role in transforming banking from fraud detection to personalised financial assistance.
India's deposit growth has reached a 15-year high of 17.8 per cent, primarily driven by a surge in foreign currency non-resident (bank), or FCNR(B), deposits. This influx of funds is expected to lead to a softening of corporate loan rates as banks seek to deploy their excess liquidity.
Axis Bank MD & CEO Amitabh Chaudhry has cautioned that the surge in FCNR(B) deposits could lead to 'abnormal lending' as banks seek to deploy excess liquidity, while also hinting at a potential interest rate hike in the near future.
Indian banks anticipate a reduction of up to 50 basis points in their funding costs due to a surge in liquidity from robust Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR (B), flows, lessening their reliance on more expensive certificates of deposit (CDs).
RBI Deputy Governor Rohit Jain highlighted that banks are well-positioned to deploy $133 billion mobilised through FCNR(B) deposits, especially with strong credit demand ahead of the festival season, while also stressing the importance of robust technology governance and cyber defences in the financial sector.
Private banks in India are aggressively mobilising Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR(B), deposits by raising interest rates and using website countdowns, as the Reserve Bank of India's swap window is set to close on August 31, earlier than initially planned.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has prematurely closed its swap facility for foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits, FCNR(B), one month ahead of schedule, after banks mobilised $52.3 billion under the scheme by August 13, indicating sufficient foreign currency reserves.
Inflows into foreign currency non-resident (bank), or FCNR (B), deposits have significantly underperformed market expectations, leading to a more than 1 per cent depreciation of the rupee against the dollar this week. Analysts point to fading RBI support measures, tepid interest due to rising global bond yields, and narrowing interest rate spreads compared to 2013 as key challenges.
Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR (B), deposits mobilised under the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) concessional swap facility may have already surpassed the amount raised during the 2013 scheme in just about 45 days, prompting SBI Research to sharply raise its estimate for inflows under the facility to $65-70 billion.
Market participants are keenly awaiting regular, preferably weekly, updates from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR (B), deposits, following the central bank's directive for banks to submit daily data on these inflows.
India's leading private-sector banks, including HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank, reported robust deposit growth in the July-September quarter (Q2FY27), significantly aided by the Reserve Bank of India's concessional FCNR(B) swap window.
India's foreign exchange reserves saw a decline of USD 5.011 billion, reaching USD 721.016 billion for the week ending October 16, as reported by the Reserve Bank of India. This marks a continued downward trend from their all-time high in September.
Indian banks are projected to achieve healthy profit growth in the second quarter of financial year 2027 (Q2FY27), driven by lower credit costs, robust advance growth, and fee income. However, net interest margins (NIMs) are expected to face pressure due to significant mobilisation of foreign currency non-resident (bank) FCNR(B) deposits.
The Reserve Bank of India's outstanding net short dollar position in the forward book surged to a record $200.06 billion at August-end, up from $136.77 billion at July-end, primarily driven by FCNR(B) flows.
Non-resident Indian (NRI) deposit schemes witnessed a staggering 678.2 per cent increase, reaching $36.24 billion in the April-July period of FY27, primarily driven by strong FCNR(B) deposit flows and a concessional swap facility introduced by the RBI.
It is important to understand that the rupee's appreciation, driven by the 2013 special swap scheme, reduced India's import costs for petroleum, oil, and gold, points out Dr Ashwani Mahajan, National Co-Convenor, Swadeshi Jagaran Manch.
ICICI Bank announced a significant 22.28 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit, reaching Rs 16,333.18 crore for the September quarter, primarily fuelled by a 30 per cent jump in its loan portfolio.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will persist in its efforts to prevent excessive volatility in the rupee, which has significantly depreciated against the US dollar due to global uncertainties, despite India's strong macro-economic fundamentals.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) net purchased a record $18.65 billion in July, driven by inflows from its concessional swap facility, leading to a significant increase in India's foreign exchange reserves.
'This rise in foreign exchange reserves was expected given the amount of FCNR(B) flow.'
"Pressure on the current account is a temporary problem. Sooner rather than later, our external sector will improve," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
Inflows into non-resident Indian (NRI) deposit schemes decreased by 23.24 per cent to $2.78 billion during the first quarter of FY27, down from $3.61 billion in the previous year, according to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data.
Tata Capital remains confident in its 23-25 per cent growth guidance, driven by strong momentum in Retail and SME segments, despite facing pressures from rising funding costs and potential impacts from new RBI regulations on revolving credit.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra has stated that the rupee may be 'undervalued' by many estimates and assured that the RBI will work to ensure its stability and help it find its 'correct value' amidst recent depreciation.
HDFC Bank reported a 5.55 per cent increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 20,700 crore for the September quarter, with incoming MD and CEO Anup Bagchi indicating a focus on strengthening the balance sheet and addressing retail vertical concerns post-merger.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, rebounded in early trade after a three-day slide, driven by strong buying in blue-chip bank stocks and a firm trend in global markets, supported by easing US bond yields and record foreign-currency deposit inflows.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday raised its policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 per cent, beginning a rate-hike cycle as rising inflation risks, elevated global yields and resilient domestic growth strengthened the case for tighter monetary policy. The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee marks a shift from its August policy, when it kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent and retained a neutral stance while seeking greater clarity on the inflation outlook and growth-inflation balance.
Despite large inflows of foreign funds mobilised through the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) concessional swap schemes, the rupee has seen little impact because the dollars have largely been absorbed into the central bank's reserves instead of being released into the spot market, according to market participants.
The Reserve Bank of India's concessional swap facility, designed to boost foreign currency inflows, has successfully attracted USD 40.82 billion by July 31, 2026, with a significant portion coming from Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits.
The FCNR (B) stratagem relies on using public money to defend the rupee. The State subsidises foreign borrowing to attract dollars. This tool requires large-scale borrowing to make a material difference against a gross external flow of $11 billion a day. A commensurately large fiscal cost falls upon the exchequer. The ministry of finance will choose how much it is willing to spend in exchange for this round number, points out Ajay Shah.
India's foreign exchange reserves have surged by $12.42 billion, reaching a new all-time high of $729.33 billion for the week ended August 21, driven by increases in foreign currency assets and gold reserves.
India is projected to attract between $80 and $85 billion through the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) concessional swap facility, designed to boost foreign currency inflows, according to an SBI research report.
The Indian rupee experienced its sharpest single-day decline in eight weeks, settling at 94.83 per dollar, primarily due to escalating crude oil prices and persistent risk-off sentiment driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and limited foreign inflows.
After a significant 9.9% depreciation in FY26, the Indian rupee has shown comparative stability in the first half of FY27, depreciating by only 1.1%, attributed to regulatory interventions and measures to attract foreign capital, despite ongoing global pressures from rising crude oil prices and foreign investor outflows.
India's economy is projected to lose momentum in the second half of fiscal 2026-27, with tighter financial conditions, elevated energy prices, and broadening inflation pressures posing significant risks, according to DBS Bank economist Radhika Rao.
India's banking system liquidity has fallen to its lowest level in over three weeks, driven by robust credit growth and potential RBI intervention in the foreign exchange market, according to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India.
India's Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran stated that the country's balance of payments (BoP) pressure is expected to remain a continuous challenge due to rising imports, commodity dependence, high global interest rates, and intense competition for capital.
