Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR (B), deposits mobilised under the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) concessional swap facility may have already surpassed the amount raised during the 2013 scheme in just about 45 days, prompting SBI Research to sharply raise its estimate for inflows under the facility to $65-70 billion.
Inflows into foreign currency non-resident (bank), or FCNR (B), deposits have significantly underperformed market expectations, leading to a more than 1 per cent depreciation of the rupee against the dollar this week. Analysts point to fading RBI support measures, tepid interest due to rising global bond yields, and narrowing interest rate spreads compared to 2013 as key challenges.
Market participants are keenly awaiting regular, preferably weekly, updates from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR (B), deposits, following the central bank's directive for banks to submit daily data on these inflows.
The Reserve Bank of India's concessional swap facility, designed to boost foreign currency inflows, has successfully attracted USD 40.82 billion by July 31, 2026, with a significant portion coming from Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits.
India is projected to attract between $80 and $85 billion through the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) concessional swap facility, designed to boost foreign currency inflows, according to an SBI research report.
India's banking system liquidity has fallen to its lowest level in over three weeks, driven by robust credit growth and potential RBI intervention in the foreign exchange market, according to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India.
India's foreign exchange reserves saw a significant increase of $10.512 billion, reaching $692.866 billion for the week ending July 31, driven by a rise in foreign currency assets and gold reserves.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged in the August monetary policy review, with economists citing elevated inflation risks and the pending closure of the FCNR(B) deposit scheme as key factors. Most anticipate a 'Neutral' policy stance but with a hawkish tone due to geopolitical tensions, high crude oil prices, and an uneven monsoon.
A recent SBI Economic Research report indicates that the significant gap between credit and deposit growth, currently over 530 basis points, is likely to persist if geopolitical risks and external supply shocks continue. However, an improvement in deposit growth is anticipated with inflows into foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits.
'Banking is the only sector that can see double-digit growth in FY27.'
State-owned Bank of Baroda (BoB) reported a 72 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) drop in net profit to 1,278 crore for Q1FY27 due to a $600 million out-of-court settlement related to NMC Health Plc. In contrast, Bank of India (BoI) saw its net profit rise by 36.23 per cent Y-o-Y to 3,068 crore for the same quarter, driven by healthy loan growth and improved asset quality.
"Our endeavour is to bring headline inflation in line with the target over the medium term," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, addressing concerns about the central bank's policy stance and economic outlook.
"With the leverage available, I believe the scheme remains reasonably attractive," said P D Singh, India and South Asia Chief Executive Officer, Standard Chartered Bank, regarding the Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) or FCNR (B) deposits.
India's foreign exchange reserves increased by USD 6.118 billion, reaching USD 682.354 billion for the week ending July 24, according to the Reserve Bank of India.
State Bank of India (SBI) reported a 13.73 per cent increase in its June quarter consolidated net profit, reaching Rs 24,113 crore, primarily due to improved core income and a decline in provisions for non-performing assets.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 49,340 crore (USD 5.16 billion) from Indian equities in June, driven by global risk aversion, a preference for developed markets, soaring US bond yields, and stretched domestic valuations, bringing total withdrawals to Rs 2.7 lakh crore so far in 2026.
Shares of major private lenders, including HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank, experienced a sharp selloff after their June-quarter results indicated persistent pressure on net interest margins (NIMs), despite healthy credit growth. This decline overshadowed gains in ICICI Bank and Punjab National Bank (PNB), which reported resilient or stronger-than-expected earnings.
Commercial banks in India recorded their highest credit growth in two years, accelerating to 18.6 per cent year-on-year by June 27, while also mobilising nearly 7 trillion in deposits, marking the third-highest fortnightly deposit growth in 29 years.
India's banking system liquidity has fallen into a deficit for the first time in nearly three months, prompting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to inject 1.41 trillion through a seven-day variable rate repo (VRR) auction to ease the temporary tightness.
'I don't see fear becoming a dominant factor for retail investors.'
India's remittance inflows have remained robust despite the West Asia conflict, driven by precautionary transfers and diversification of remittance sources, with bankers expecting continued stability for the year.
Flows from overseas Indians into Non-Resident Indian (NRI) deposit schemes have fallen by 24.17 per cent to approximately $11.04 billion between April 2025 and February 2026, down from $14.56 billion in the previous year, according to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the central government have introduced a package of measures, including tax exemptions for FPIs on government securities and a concessional foreign-exchange swap facility, aiming to attract up to $50 billion in foreign capital. This initiative is designed to strengthen India's balance of payments and potentially cover the projected BoP gap for FY27.
'Investors shouldn't let fear dictate their decisions. The most important step is simply to begin investing.'
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn over Rs 62,853 crore from Indian equities in the first fortnight of June, bringing the total outflows for 2026 to Rs 2.87 lakh crore, surpassing the entire 2025 figure, driven by geopolitical tensions, global economic growth concerns, and a weakening rupee.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn nearly Rs 43,000 crore from Indian equities in the first week of June, contributing to a total outflow of Rs 2.67 lakh crore in 2026, driven by a global shift towards technology and AI-linked opportunities and persistent rupee depreciation.
State-owned enterprises in India are projected to significantly increase their overseas borrowings, potentially exceeding $15 billion in FY27, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's new concessional forex swap facility which offers a 3 per cent funding-cost advantage.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed marginally lower due to profit-taking, following the Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged while lowering its growth expectations for the current fiscal year and forecasting higher inflation.
'When we start describing somebody as an enemy that is the start of politics and emotion after which no business can take place.' 'We need to get out of this, allow Indian businessmen to do business with China.'
The central bank is yet to consider actions such as a rate hike or mobilising dollar inflows from non-resident Indians to boost forex reserves as it cannot afford to continue with them for long when the rupee's internationalisation tops its agenda, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
In response to the panic triggered by Trump's trade policies, the RBI net sold approximately $43 billion in the second half of FY25 to curb volatility, as the rupee plunged to a low of 87.95 per dollar in February this year.
Here's how NRIs can protect their overseas earnings from exchange rate risk.
ICICI Bank, Union Bank of India, Central Bank of India and Dena Bank have all hiked interest rates on NRE and FCNR fixed deposits from January 1.
'Despite rising inflows, many NRIs lack awareness about NRO and NRE accounts and mistakenly use family accounts or invest in a relative's name.' 'Many are unaware of tax implications.'
RBI cuts GDP growth projection to 6.6 per cent for current financial year, from earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent.
Ask rediffGURU and tax expert Mihir Tanna your income tax-related questions.
Overseas Indians deposited around $4 billion in non-resident Indian (NRI) deposit schemes in April - June FY25, up 79 per cent over the amount deposited in these schemes in the same period last year, data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday showed. In April - June FY25, inflows into the NRI schemes stood at $3.95 billion, compared to $2.21 billion during the same period a year ago. With this, the total outstanding NRI deposits as of June stood at $155.71 billion.
Foreign currency non-resident bank FCNR (B) deposits in dollar, having maturity of one year to less than two years, would now attract an interest rate of 2.41 per cent as compared to 2.33 per cent earlier. Rate of interest for deposits with 2-3 years maturity has been revised to 2.71 per cent from 2.43 per cent earlier. For deposits having a maturity of five years, the rate has been revised to 3.47 per cent, against 3.11 per cent earlier, the banks said.
Banks had raised about $34 billion through the FCNR (B) from deposits from NRIs in September 2013.
