Indian banks anticipate a reduction of up to 50 basis points in their funding costs due to a surge in liquidity from robust Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR (B), flows, lessening their reliance on more expensive certificates of deposit (CDs).
Private banks in India are aggressively mobilising Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR(B), deposits by raising interest rates and using website countdowns, as the Reserve Bank of India's swap window is set to close on August 31, earlier than initially planned.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has prematurely closed its swap facility for foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits, FCNR(B), one month ahead of schedule, after banks mobilised $52.3 billion under the scheme by August 13, indicating sufficient foreign currency reserves.
Inflows into foreign currency non-resident (bank), or FCNR (B), deposits have significantly underperformed market expectations, leading to a more than 1 per cent depreciation of the rupee against the dollar this week. Analysts point to fading RBI support measures, tepid interest due to rising global bond yields, and narrowing interest rate spreads compared to 2013 as key challenges.
Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR (B), deposits mobilised under the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) concessional swap facility may have already surpassed the amount raised during the 2013 scheme in just about 45 days, prompting SBI Research to sharply raise its estimate for inflows under the facility to $65-70 billion.
Market participants are keenly awaiting regular, preferably weekly, updates from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR (B), deposits, following the central bank's directive for banks to submit daily data on these inflows.
Inflows into non-resident Indian (NRI) deposit schemes decreased by 23.24 per cent to $2.78 billion during the first quarter of FY27, down from $3.61 billion in the previous year, according to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, rebounded in early trade after a three-day slide, driven by strong buying in blue-chip bank stocks and a firm trend in global markets, supported by easing US bond yields and record foreign-currency deposit inflows.
Despite large inflows of foreign funds mobilised through the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) concessional swap schemes, the rupee has seen little impact because the dollars have largely been absorbed into the central bank's reserves instead of being released into the spot market, according to market participants.
The Reserve Bank of India's concessional swap facility, designed to boost foreign currency inflows, has successfully attracted USD 40.82 billion by July 31, 2026, with a significant portion coming from Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits.
India's foreign exchange reserves have surged by $12.42 billion, reaching a new all-time high of $729.33 billion for the week ended August 21, driven by increases in foreign currency assets and gold reserves.
India is projected to attract between $80 and $85 billion through the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) concessional swap facility, designed to boost foreign currency inflows, according to an SBI research report.
India's banking system liquidity has fallen to its lowest level in over three weeks, driven by robust credit growth and potential RBI intervention in the foreign exchange market, according to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India.
India's foreign exchange reserves saw one of their largest weekly expansions, surging by USD 14.136 billion to reach USD 707.002 billion during the week ended August 7, according to the Reserve Bank of India.
India's foreign exchange reserves saw a significant increase of $10.512 billion, reaching $692.866 billion for the week ending July 31, driven by a rise in foreign currency assets and gold reserves.
'A balance had to be struck between the economic cost of taking action at this point against the need not to fall behind the curve in controlling inflation and anchoring inflation expectations.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) net bought $561 million in June, marking its first net purchase since February, following three consecutive months of net sales. This move coincided with a series of government and RBI measures to attract foreign capital, leading to a 0.36 per cent appreciation of the rupee against the dollar.
'Banking is the only sector that can see double-digit growth in FY27.'
A recent SBI Economic Research report indicates that the significant gap between credit and deposit growth, currently over 530 basis points, is likely to persist if geopolitical risks and external supply shocks continue. However, an improvement in deposit growth is anticipated with inflows into foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged in the August monetary policy review, with economists citing elevated inflation risks and the pending closure of the FCNR(B) deposit scheme as key factors. Most anticipate a 'Neutral' policy stance but with a hawkish tone due to geopolitical tensions, high crude oil prices, and an uneven monsoon.
State-owned Bank of Baroda (BoB) reported a 72 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) drop in net profit to 1,278 crore for Q1FY27 due to a $600 million out-of-court settlement related to NMC Health Plc. In contrast, Bank of India (BoI) saw its net profit rise by 36.23 per cent Y-o-Y to 3,068 crore for the same quarter, driven by healthy loan growth and improved asset quality.
"Our endeavour is to bring headline inflation in line with the target over the medium term," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, addressing concerns about the central bank's policy stance and economic outlook.
"With the leverage available, I believe the scheme remains reasonably attractive," said P D Singh, India and South Asia Chief Executive Officer, Standard Chartered Bank, regarding the Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) or FCNR (B) deposits.
India's balance of payments (BoP) recorded an $8.1 billion deficit in the first quarter of 2026-27 (Q1FY27), a significant increase from a $4.5 billion surplus in the corresponding period of the previous year, primarily driven by a sharp reversal in portfolio flows.
India's foreign exchange reserves increased by USD 6.118 billion, reaching USD 682.354 billion for the week ending July 24, according to the Reserve Bank of India.
State Bank of India (SBI) reported a 13.73 per cent increase in its June quarter consolidated net profit, reaching Rs 24,113 crore, primarily due to improved core income and a decline in provisions for non-performing assets.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 49,340 crore (USD 5.16 billion) from Indian equities in June, driven by global risk aversion, a preference for developed markets, soaring US bond yields, and stretched domestic valuations, bringing total withdrawals to Rs 2.7 lakh crore so far in 2026.
Shares of major private lenders, including HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank, experienced a sharp selloff after their June-quarter results indicated persistent pressure on net interest margins (NIMs), despite healthy credit growth. This decline overshadowed gains in ICICI Bank and Punjab National Bank (PNB), which reported resilient or stronger-than-expected earnings.
India's banking system liquidity has fallen into a deficit for the first time in nearly three months, prompting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to inject 1.41 trillion through a seven-day variable rate repo (VRR) auction to ease the temporary tightness.
Commercial banks in India recorded their highest credit growth in two years, accelerating to 18.6 per cent year-on-year by June 27, while also mobilising nearly 7 trillion in deposits, marking the third-highest fortnightly deposit growth in 29 years.
Flows from overseas Indians into Non-Resident Indian (NRI) deposit schemes have fallen by 24.17 per cent to approximately $11.04 billion between April 2025 and February 2026, down from $14.56 billion in the previous year, according to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the central government have introduced a package of measures, including tax exemptions for FPIs on government securities and a concessional foreign-exchange swap facility, aiming to attract up to $50 billion in foreign capital. This initiative is designed to strengthen India's balance of payments and potentially cover the projected BoP gap for FY27.
India's remittance inflows have remained robust despite the West Asia conflict, driven by precautionary transfers and diversification of remittance sources, with bankers expecting continued stability for the year.
'I don't see fear becoming a dominant factor for retail investors.'
'Investors shouldn't let fear dictate their decisions. The most important step is simply to begin investing.'
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn over Rs 62,853 crore from Indian equities in the first fortnight of June, bringing the total outflows for 2026 to Rs 2.87 lakh crore, surpassing the entire 2025 figure, driven by geopolitical tensions, global economic growth concerns, and a weakening rupee.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn nearly Rs 43,000 crore from Indian equities in the first week of June, contributing to a total outflow of Rs 2.67 lakh crore in 2026, driven by a global shift towards technology and AI-linked opportunities and persistent rupee depreciation.
State-owned enterprises in India are projected to significantly increase their overseas borrowings, potentially exceeding $15 billion in FY27, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's new concessional forex swap facility which offers a 3 per cent funding-cost advantage.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed marginally lower due to profit-taking, following the Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged while lowering its growth expectations for the current fiscal year and forecasting higher inflation.
