Brendan Lynch, the assistant US trade representative for South and Central Asia, will pay a five-day visit to India beginning Tuesday, days before US President Donald Trump's tit-for-tat tariff kicks in. The senior US trade official is expected to hold talks with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal besides meeting a number of senior Indian officials.
The Indian economy could remain less affected by global trade wars than other countries because the two engines of domestic growth - consumption and investment - are likely to face a limited impact from such headwinds, according to an article on the 'State of the Economy' in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) bulletin, released on Tuesday.
The resilience of the economy and strength of domestic demand will continue to make India an engine of growth amid the rapidly evolving global trade landscape as a result of US tariffs, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in London on Tuesday.
Showing the effect of the slowdown in global economic activity, the equity foreign direct investment (FDI) into India declined sharply to $13.9 billion in April-July 2023 from $22.04 billion a year ago. The net FDI, inflows minus outflows, declined from $17.28 billion in April-July 2022 to $5.70 billion in April-July 2023 on account of moderating gross FDI and a rise in repatriation. Gross FDI into India moderated to $22.0 billion during April-July 2023 from $29.6 billion a year ago, according to Reserve Bank of India data.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) equity inflows in India declined 24 per cent to $20.48 billion in April-September 2023, dragged by lower inflows in computer hardware and software, telecom, auto and pharma, according to government data. FDI inflows stood at $26.91 billion during the first six months of the last fiscal. Inflows during January-March 2023 also contracted 40.55 per cent to $9.28 billion.
Net foreign direct investment (FDI) in India, inflows minus outflows, declined sharply in April-August this year to $2.99 billion from $18.03 billion in the same period last year on moderation in global activities and a rise in repatriation. The Reserve Bank of India's data (October 2023 bulletin) said FDI in India was $7.28 billion and FDI by India, that is money invested abroad from the country, was $4.28 billion in April-August 2023. As for 2022, FDI in India was $22.79 billion and FDI by India was $4.76 billion in April-August.
Issues related to the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) and bilateral investment treaty between India and the UK are expected to figure during the three-day visit of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to London from April 8-10, official sources said. The minister will attend a host of meetings, including the India-United Kingdom Economic and Financial Dialogue, in London.
'Binary fission will happen -- startups will lead to more startups.'
India and the United States will finalize the contours, schedule of negotiations, and terms of reference for a proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) during a three-day meeting beginning Tuesday. The agreement is expected to be finalized in two tranches, with the first phase focusing on goods trade. The US team, led by Assistant US Trade Representative for South and Central Asia Brendan Lynch, will be in India from March 25-29 to discuss the agreement. Both countries are aiming to conclude the first phase of the agreement by fall 2025.
"These latest so-called 'Liberation Day' tariffs are reckless and self-destructive, inflicting financial pain on Illinois at a time when people are already struggling to keep their small businesses afloat and put food on the table."
This is despite the fact that total FDI into India has fallen by 22 per cent from $58 billion in FY22 to $46 billion in FY23, according to the Reserve Bank of India.
Interrupting a two-month streak of decline, outward foreign direct investment (FDI) rose sequentially to $1.85 billion in July over $1.07 billion in June, an increase of 73 per cent. However, it was lower than the $2.18 billion in July last year, according to the Reserve Bank of India data. Outbound FDI, expressed as financial commitment, has three components - equity, loans, and guarantees.
Opposition MPs in India's Rajya Sabha raised concerns about US President Donald Trump's tariff threats, demanding the government clarify its response and engage in discussions with opposition parties. Leaders like P Chidambaram and Sagarika Ghose warned of potential economic repercussions, including depressed exports, lower FDI, and a significant tariff burden. The debate also touched on other issues such as the government's economic policies, demonetization, and the impact of GST on common citizens.
Foreign direct investment into the country is expected to rebound in the coming months on account of India's high economic growth, and steps to further improve the business environment of India, the Economic Survey said on Tuesday. The rise in global uncertainty in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, FDI equity inflows in the manufacturing sector in the first half of the current fiscal (April-September) fell below its corresponding level in the first half of 2021-22, the document, which was tabled in Parliament, said. The monetary tightening at the global level has further restricted the FDI equity inflows, the survey said.
The sectors that received most of the investment during this period included manufacturing, financial services, business services, computer services, electricity, and other energy sectors.
'We face the risk of remaining a low-income country for a very long time unless something changes in the next few years.' 'Instead of constantly talking about becoming a developed economy, we need to start fixing the problems of the economy one by one.' 'There is so much potential, and we are squandering away the opportunity.'
'Unsurprisingly, Trump shared Modi's podcast with Fridman on his Truth account.' 'The intentions of Trump, a transactional president, are never easy to tell.' 'We will know in the next fortnight if and when he unfolds reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, whether Modi's flattering words made any significant difference to Trump's compass,' notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
India needs another shot of difficult reform, of the kind only possible at gunpoint. Mr Trump holds that gun to our heads now. A drastic reduction in tariff protection, other elements of sarkari wet-nursing will force entrepreneurial India to become competitive again, argues Shekhar Gupta.
'The startup ecosystem, the government, and the owners of large pools of Indian capital need to actively support the creation of these local champions, not pull down the teams that are trying hard to get there.'
The Indian insurance industry is set to focus on customer-centric technological adoption and expansion into rural areas to drive growth in 2025.
The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai) has asked at least 10 general and life insurance companies to submit a detailed road map for their listing strategies by the end of this month, according to multiple sources with direct knowledge of the matter. "The regulator met four life and six general insurers last month and asked them to provide their listing strategies by the end of February," said one of the sources.
Reflecting subdued global economic growth, India's outward foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 33.3 per cent sequentially to $1.21 billion in August, compared to over $1.82 billion in July.
India has set an ambitious target of textile exports worth $100 billion by 2030, but the recent data released by the Ministry of Textiles pertaining to India's textile and apparel trade puts achievement of the goal in jeopardy.
High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
Ask rediffGURU and PF expert Milind Vadjikar your insurance, stocks, mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
'We may see even more restrictive policies during 2.0.'
'Expect India to keep doing well irrespective of geopolitics.'
The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) representing 70 million traders has written to Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, drawing his attention to the alleged violations of laws and regulations by quick commerce (qcom) companies.
The most striking features of this Budget was its focus on simplification and improving the ease of doing business in India, asserts Kaku Nakhate.
The annual decline works out to be 16.3 per cent in 2022-23 compared to inflows in 2021-22. The gross FDI inflows in 2021-22 were $81.97 billion, up 10 per cent over fiscal 2019-20. The previous year-on-year contraction in FDI was in 2012-13 when the inflows declined by 26 per cent to $34.298 billion.
Anticipating US action on tariffs, India seems to have made the first move by revamping its tariff structure by reducing the slabs to eight rates, points out Mukesh Butani.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Sunday said the ruling Mahayuti in Maharashtra will retain power with full majority and a decision on who will be the chief minister will be taken by the alliance partners after the state polls.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Zomato surged over 7 per cent. Maruti, ITC Hotels, ITC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Titan and IndusInd Bank were among the biggest gainers. Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, UltraTech Cement, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infosys and Adani Ports were among the laggards.
These are the highlights of the Union Budget 2025-26 presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament on Saturday.
The Modi government's flagship initiative 'Make in India' launched 10 years ago has helped the country boost exports, push investments and promote manufacturing. Under the initiative, launched on September 25, 2014, a series of measures have been taken by the government to boost local manufacturing. These initiatives include the rollout of production linked incentive (PLI) schemes for 14 sectors, easing foreign direct investment (FDI) norms, reducing compliance burden to improve business climate, all approvals through single window, and rolling out of the national logistics policy.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) distributors' association has written to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, expressing its apprehensions that the "unchecked expansion" of quick commerce platforms was leading to severe disruptions in the retail ecosystem. India Consumer Products Distributors Federation on Thursday shot an email to the government, saying that significant challenges were posed by the rapid growth of quick commerce platforms such as Blinkit, Zepto and Instamart to the traditional retail sector and the FMCG distribution network in the country.
About 281 cases have been taken up for investigation by the Directorate of Enforcement regarding suspected violations of foreign direct investment (FDI) norms all over the country during April 2019 to March this year, Parliament was informed on Wednesday. Necessary action as per provisions of Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999 (FEMA) has been taken, which includes issuance of show cause notices, adjudication and imposition of penalty, Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Som Parkash said in a written reply to the Lok Sabha. In these cases, following the due process of adjudication, penalties of more than Rs 2,600 crore have been imposed under the FEMA, he said, adding the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has done compounding of contraventions of FDI related FEMA provisions in total of 1,421 cases across the country during the last three years.
India is not "rethinking" supporting investments from China, said Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Tuesday, referring to a proposal made in the Economic Survey 2024. The survey by India's chief economic advisor last week said India had two "choices" to benefit from the so-called China plus one strategy, either by integrating into that country's supply chain or by promoting foreign direct investment (FDI). "Chief economic advisor's report speaks about new ideas and gives out their own thinking. It is not at all binding on the government and there is no rethinking to support Chinese investments in the country," Goyal told reporters in Delhi.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) distributors' association has written to the finance ministry, highlighting concern over fund utilisation and fund accumulation by quick commerce companies and deep discounting of goods on their platforms. According to a recent letter seen by Business Standard, All India Consumer Products Distributors Federation (AICPDF) noted that its analysis indicated that approximately 80 per cent of these funds were directed toward customer acquisition strategies instead of creating cutting-edge innovations or sustainable growth models for the retail sector.
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