The first quarter earnings season will dictate the trend in the equity markets in this holiday-shortened week amid absence of major macroeconomic drivers, say analysts. Besides, lacklustre global markets may increase volatility in the market, they added. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for Bakri-Id.
Sliding for the fourth straight day, the BSE Sensex shed 152 points in choppy trade on Wednesday amid mixed global cues ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision.
Stock markets will focus on global trends for further direction in this holiday-shortened week as the earnings season is largely over, analysts said. Trade experts expect the key benchmark indices to move sideways as investors are trying to decode the impact of rising inflation on foreign portfolio investments. Inflation data released by the US and China last week have fanned fears of earlier than expected rate hike and boosted US bond yields.
Global markets trends, inflation, release of industrial output data and quarterly earnings will dictate movement of the equity benchmarks this week, analysts said, adding that volatility might continue amid slew of announcements of macroeconomic data at the global level too. Moreover, foreign fund movement, crude oil prices and trend in rupee would also act as major drivers for the equity market, they added. "The direction of global equity markets along with movement in dollar index and crude oil prices will continue to dominate while inflation numbers of the USA on May 11 and inflation and IIP numbers of India on May 12 will also cause volatility in the market," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Powered by a rally in index heavyweight Reliance Industries, equity benchmark Sensex broke its four-session losing run to close above the 55,000-mark on Thursday despite a weak trend overseas. Investors made a cautious return to IT, pharma and bank stocks after their recent sell-off. However, a depreciating rupee and persistent foreign fund outflows capped the gains, traders said. Overcoming a lacklustre start, the 30-share BSE Sensex surged 427.79 points or 0.78 per cent to close at 55,320.28.
Global trends, the last batch of Q2 earnings and domestic macroeconomic data will dictate terms in the equity market, which had an extended weekend last week, analysts said. "FIIs' behaviour along with inflation numbers from US and China will remain key factors for this week. After an extended weekend, Indian markets are likely to start a fresh week with a positive note on the global backdrop. "However, there is a risk of selling pressure at higher levels as we are underperforming the global peers where the near-term texture has changed to 'sell on rise' from 'buy on dip'," Santosh Meena, head (research) at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
Investors have lost over Rs 5.55 lakh crore in four days of declines in the domestic equity markets. Rising domestic COVID-19 cases and selling in RIL and banking stocks dragged down the 30-share BSE Sensex by 562.34 points or 1.12 per cent to 49,801.62 on Wednesday. In four days, the benchamark has fallen by 1,477.89 points or 2.88 per cent. The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies has tanked by Rs 5,55,400.52 crore in four days to reach Rs 2,03,71,252.94 crore.
Analysts believe that investors should look at stocks that hit 52-week lows only if they have a dividend paying track record, are debt-free and have sound fundamentals.
Domestic equity markets are likely to see volatility in a range-bound trade this week amid geopolitical worries and growing expectations of a sharp hike in interest rates, analysts said. Global trends, inflation data and the last batch of quarterly earnings will drive the markets this week, they said. Besides, the rupee movement, FII investment pattern and Brent crude trends would also be watched by investors.
On the Sensex chart, NTPC, SBI, UltraTech Cement, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv and Bjaja Finance were among the major laggards, shedding as much as 1.63 per cent.
HCL Tech was the top loser in the Sensex pack, skidding over 4 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra Dr Reddy's, Wipro, TCS, Titan and Infosys. NSE Nifty plunged 167.80 points to 17,110.15.
The US Fed interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data announcements and ongoing quarterly earnings are some of the major factors that will drive the stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Besides, monthly auto sales numbers and the LIC IPO will also remain in focus, they added. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramzan Id). "The market is likely to kick off this week on a sombre note after a sharp fall in the US market then the focus will shift to the outcome of the US FOMC meeting, which is crucial amid record inflation and growth worries.
Tata Steel was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying nearly 4 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance, M&M, Bajaj Finserv and Reliance Industries. NSE Nifty advanced 33.95 points to a fresh high of 16,563.05.
Macroeconomic data announcement, Omicron situation and global trends will be the major driving factors for the equity market in the first week of the new year 2022, according to analysts. In what turned out to be a historic year, the Indian stock indices went past multiple milestones and the 30-share Sensex made an annual gain of 10,502.49 points or 21.99 per cent in 2021. Religare Broking Vice-President (Research) Ajit Mishra said, "This week marks the beginning of a new month and participants will be closely eyeing some crucial high-frequency data like monthly auto sales, India manufacturing PMI and India services PMI. "Besides, updates on the COVID-19 situation and performance of global markets will also be critical."
Falling for the sixth straight session, the BSE Sensex plunged 1,114.82 points or 2.96 per cent to close at 36,553.60 on Thursday, tracking a heavy selloff in global markets. The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies stood at Rs 1,48,76,217.22 crore, down by Rs 11,31,815.5 crore in six sessions. Since September 16, the 30-share BSE benchmark index has fallen by 2,749.25 points.
Equity markets will look for directions from global trends, ongoing quarterly earnings and investment patterns of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in a holiday-shortened week ahead and may encounter volatility amid the scheduled monthly derivatives expiry, according to analysts. Equity markets will remain closed on Wednesday on account of 'Republic Day'. "This week is a holiday-shortened one and it's going to be critical due to the list of events and data that are lined up.
The 30-share BSE Sensex surged by 477.24 points or 0.83 per cent to close at more than one-week high of 57,897.48. As many as 28 of its constituents closed with gains while two declined. The broad-based Nifty of the National Stock Exchange rose by 147.20 points or 0.86 per cent to settle 17,233.45, tracking gains in Sun Pharma, Asian Paints, and Reliance Industries.
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Investors' wealth jumped over Rs 59.75 lakh crore in the 2021-22 fiscal, helped by a largely buoyant trend in domestic stocks with benchmark index Sensex surging over 18 per cent during the period. Braving many headwinds in the latter part of the current fiscal, Sensex closed the 2021-22 financial year with a gain of 9,059.36 points or 18.29 per cent. Mirroring optimism in equities despite worries related to geopolitical tension, inflation concerns, FII selling, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms rallied by Rs 59,75,686.84 crore to Rs 2,64,06,501.38 crore in the entire 2021-22 fiscal.
Stock market barometers Sensex and Nifty ended marginally higher on Monday as rise in wholesale inflation capped early gains despite a positive trend in global markets. The 30-share index settled 32.02 points or 0.05 per cent higher at 60,718.71 with half of its constituents ending in green. The broad based Nifty edged up 6.70 points or 0.04 per cent to close at 18,109.45.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled nearly 1 per cent on Wednesday due to profit booking in banking, financial and IT stocks after a recent rally. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 537.22 points or 0.94 per cent to end at 56,819.39 as 24 of its stocks declined. During the day, it tanked 772.57 points or 1.34 per cent to touch a low of 56,584.04. The broader NSE Nifty declined by 162.40 points or 0.94 per cent to 17,038.40 with 39 of its constituents ending in the red. Bajaj Finance was the biggest loser among Sensex stocks, dropping by 7.24 per cent.
Equity indices gave up early gains to close in the red for the third session on the trot on Wednesday, weighed by selling in banking and finance counters amid inflationary pressures and persistent foreign fund outflows. A weak rupee and lacklustre global cues also kept buying sentiment in check, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex opened on a firm footing but failed to hold on the momentum, finishing 237.44 points or 0.41 per cent lower at 58,338.93. On similar lines, the broader NSE Nifty dipped 54.65 points or 0.31 per cent to close at 17,475.65.
Trading sentiment in the equity markets this week will be guided by global cues, Covid-19 trends and quarterly earnings by market heavyweight TCS, analysts said. Investors will also monitor movement of rupee and crude oil as well as progress of monsoon, they added.
Shares of Adani group companies witnessed a massive drubbing in morning trade on Monday, tumbling up to 25 per cent, amid reports that the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) has frozen certain FPIs accounts that have holding in some of these firms.
Reliance was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, surging over 3 per cent, followed by ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Dr Reddy, Maruti and ITC.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, 26 scrips closed with gains led by Tata Motors that zoomed 16.63 per cent after the company reported narrowing of losses in the September quarter.
Stock markets are expected to remain under pressure this week due to the overhang of US presidential polls and uncertainty over global growth due to resurging cases of coronavirus, according to analysts.
RBI policy, macro data, company earnings to decide market course this week: Experts
Sentiment in the market will also be guided by other major market movers like trend in the rupee, Brent crude and foreign capital flows.
Indian equity markets are likely to witness volatility this week due to concerns over rising cases of coronavirus and expiry of derivatives contracts, analysts said. Further, progress surrounding the COVID-19 vaccine, related updates, US stimulus talks and global cues would dictate the market trend, traders said. "Going ahead, the market is likely to be volatile as sentiments oscillate between fear of rising COVID cases globally and optimism over vaccine progress. Investors would closely watch out development over the US stimulus talks," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
In four days, Sensex has fallen by 5,815.25 points. From the 30-share pack, 22 companies closed the day lower, led by Bajaj Finance, Maruti Suzuki India, Axis Bank, M&M, Tech Mahindra and ONGC, plunging up to 10.24 per cent.
Sluggish corporate earnings, lacklustre global markets, FPI and slowdown concerns have played spoilsport for the markets.
With the Budget overhang gone, investors are breathing a sigh of relief and are back to make fresh calls.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies on Thursday crossed the historic Rs 200 lakh crore mark for the first time, driven by a continuous rally in the broader market. Riding high on the bullish investor sentiment, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies reached a record Rs 2,00,47,191.31 crore at close of trade. The 30-share BSE index closed the day with a gain of 358.54 points or 0.71 per cent at its lifetime peak of 50,614.29. This is the fourth consecutive day of gains for the markets.
A sharp decline in crude and strengthening of the rupee added to the buoyancy.
The markets are showing no signs of stability as the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak is likely to be significant for many major economies.
Equity markets braved all odds this fiscal and rewarded investors with high returns as the benchmark Sensex surged more than 66 per cent despite COVID-led disruptions and concerns over its impact on the economy. Market analysts termed FY 2020-21 as a roller coaster ride for not only Indian markets but also for equity indices globally due to the pandemic. In an unprecedented come back, the 30-share BSE Sensex has jumped 19,540.01 points or 66.30 per cent so far this fiscal. This extraordinary rally holds significance as markets faced volatile trends this fiscal.
While small-caps have delivered higher returns than their large-cap peers, investors would do well to recognise the incremental risk of investing in these companies.
The stock, which is a play on the growth story of Indian Railways, has corrected 15 per cent from its 52-week high level of Rs 2,072.95 scaled on March 9. Yet, this has not deterred brokerages from holding a bullish view on the stock.
Among the lot, Rallis India, Escorts, Jubilant Life Sciences, and Crisil added half of the total gains made in the ace stock-picker's portfolio.
