Congress goes all out to halt saffron march in Vidarbha
V Ram in Nagpur
The Vidarbha region in Maharashtra, consisting of 11 Lok Sabha constituencies, will
witness close battles in the 12th general election.
In 1996, it was practically a one-sided affair, with this traditional Congress stronghold falling
for the first time to the saffron onslaught. The Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena alliance
had bagged all but two of the seats (Bhandara and Ramtek).
Straight Contest: BJP-SS vs Cong-RPI
Of the 377 candidates in Maharashtra for the 48 Lok Sabha seats, 103
are contesting the 11 constituencies of Vidarbha.
However, given the strength of the candidates, it is a straight contest in all the 11 constituencies between
the Congress-Republican Party of India combine and the BJP-Sena alliance. The Janata
Dal candidates in Nagpur and Wardha are expected to make a small
dent in the votes, but will not be a threat to the major contestants.
The Bahujan Samaj Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal are the other parties in the fray, but their interest
may be limited to procuring votes towards obtaining recognition
as a national party (6 per cent of the votes in the states). The Shetkari Sanghatana's
Swatantra Bharat Party has put up candidates under the Janata
Party symbol, but it is not likely to have a major impact.
Congress gets its act together
This time round, the scenario is none too cosy for the BJP-SS,
as the Congress has strengthened its position quite a bit through
strategic alliances with the RPI (all the
factions) and the Samajwadi Party. The CPI is also supporting
this combine.
Various factions of the Congress have managed to strike a truce,
even if only for the purpose of halting the saffron upsurge. Sharad Pawar conceded an election
ticket to his rival Sudhakar Naik (Washim) and has
also campaigned for him. Naik has since publicly acknowledged
Pawar's supremacy in the Congress scheme of things.
Pawar, the most important Congress leader in the state,
has taken up the mantle of campaigning for the success of
Congress-RPI candidates, and is going about it in quite an inspired
manner.
Sonia Gandhi, star campaigner for the Congress, has just canvassed
for the Congress-RPI candidates in the region. Her meetings have drawn
huge crowds at Buldhana, Bhandara and Nagpur, and the party
expects a boost to its prospects this time. However, how far the crowds
at these meetings convert to votes for the Congress remains to
be seen.
Critical time for BJP-Sena
For the BJP-Sena alliance, the election could not have come at
a more critical time. Unseasonable rains, hailstorm and thunder
showers have affected thousands of farmers all across Vidarbha,
a predominantly agricultural region. The farmers are discontented
with the compensation given by the government and this is being exploited
to the hilt by the Congress.
Local issues dominate
Widespread public non-interest in the election and the political
consequences is discernible. The elected MPs are perceived to have
done little for the constituency or at the national level and
are contending with the anti-incumbency factor.
Some of the candidates have resorted to constituency hopping --
Datta Meghe, the Congress representative from Ramtek, is contesting
this time from Wardha, Vilas Muttemwar (Congress candidate, Nagpur)
has shifted from Chimur (after losing the 1996 election) which
he had previously represented twice.
Separate Vidarbha -- a political issue
The separate Vidarbha issue is not a burning problem for the people, but is being exploited politically by the
Congress. The Shiv Sena-BJP alliance in Maharashtra is against
it (although the BJP's national unit is in favour) and have blamed the
Congress for poor development in the region. Balasaheb Thackeray,
in his campaign speeches, has been pointing to the fact that over
50 Congress representatives from Vidarbha have been ministers
in the state and at the Centre. There were three chief ministers
from the region, yet they had ignored the development needs of
Vidarbha.
The Sena-BJP points out to the developmental work being undertaken
all across Vidarbha and promises to ensure a fair deal for the
region.
Caste factor crucial
The caste factor continues to be a major influence in all the
constituencies. There is a sizeable Dalit population (roughly
25 per cent). All parties are focusing on this votebank, and
the Congress appears to have taken the lead, through its alliance
with the RPI.
But the RPI itself, rife with internal divisions, came together
recently, on high court orders, to decide their nominees for the
election. The candidates -- Prakash Ambedkar (Akola), R S Gavai
(Amravati), and Jogendra Kawade (Chimur) -- hope to put up a good
show, by garnering the Dalit votes, along with the committed votes
of the Congress.
In 1996, three-way contests among the Congress,
the BJP and the RPI had helped the BJP emerge ahead. The third
front, consisting of JD, RPI, CPI, SP had got 17 per cent votes in Vidarbha
in 1996.
Will the Dalits vote in a united manner? This is open to question
as the RPI leaders have not reconciled their personal differences
yet. Prakash Ambedkar recently termed Gavai's electoral campaigning
for him in Akola as a 'liability'. Pawar has declared that
the RPI candidate Jogendra Kawade (Chimur) was 'weak'. The Congress
cadres in Akola are also lukewarm to the RPI candidate (Ambedkar).
The BSP, which is wooing the Dalit voters, may not get much support,
as Kanshi Ram is looked upon by the locals as a 'northern' influence.
Because of the Congress-RPI alliance, there is a distinct possibility
that some of the factional Dalit votes and the non-Dalit votes
could consolidate in favour of the BJP-Sena candidate.
The Teli and Mali communities have a large presence in the region
and are annoyed with both the Congress and the BJP for not putting
up any candidate from their communities, in Maharashtra. Other party
candidates -- non BJP, non-Congress -- belonging to these communities are likely
to draw away these votes.
As for the Muslim votes, the Congress is banking on its alliance
with the Samajwadi Party to deliver. The Janata Dal also expects
to draw some support from Muslim voters.
Campaigning hots up
National leaders of major parties have campaigned here since last
week. Balasaheb Thackeray, Sharad Pawar, Chhagan Bhujbal, Gopinath
Munde, Nitin Gadkari have all addressed a number of meetings.
Atal Bihari Vajpayee drew
huge crowds in Akola, Wardha and in Nagpur on February 12th.
Sonia Gandhi stormed the region, with massive rallies in Buldhana,
Bhandara and Nagpur on February 15th. Other leaders
expected to campaign in Vidarbha include L K Advani, Laloo
Prasad Yadav, I K Gujral and A B Bardhan.
Mood swings and poll trends
The ordinary voter in Vidarbha is cool about the election
which are just four days away. With hardly any campaigning activity,
thanks to the Model Code restrictions, the mood of the electorate
is proving inscrutable.
All the major leaders who have addressed rallies in the region
have drawn large crowds. If the BJP was exulting about the crowds
for Vajpayee earlier, it is now the turn of the Congress
to feel enthused with the huge rally addressed by Sonia Gandhi
in Nagpur. Whether the crowds at these meetings are out of curiosity
or of endorsement can only be a matter of speculation. One thing is certain,
however, there is no 'wave' in favour of either front.
The undecided voters and the new voters, according to local estimates,
account for about 25 to 30 per cent of the electorate and this will hold
the key on election day.
Who is ahead?
By current trends and the opinion of poll watchers, the Congress-RPI
combination is in the lead in at least four constituencies:
Bhandara (Praful Patel, Congress vs Narayandas Saraf, BJP); Washim
(Sudhakar Naik, Congress cs Dr Shewale, Shiv Sena); Akola (Prakash Ambedkar, RPI
vs Pundalak Phundkar, BJP) and Buldhana (Mukul Wasnik, Congress vs Anand
Adsul, Shiv Sena).
It is also in a keen tussle with the BJP-Shiv Sena in two other
constituencies -- Amravati (R S Gavai, RPI vs Anant Gudhe, Shiv Sena) and
Nagpur (Vilas Muttemwar, Congress vs Ramesh Mantri, BJP). The BJP-Shiv Sena seems
to be ahead in the remaining five constituencies: Chandrapur (Hamaraj
Ahir, BJP vs Naresh Pugalia, Congress); Chimur (Namdev Diwte, BJP vs
Jogendra Kawde, RPI); Wardha (Vijay Mude, BJP vs Datta Meghe, Congress);
Ramtek (Ashok Gujar, Shiv Sena vs Chitralekha Bhonsale, Congress) and Yavatmal
(Rajabhan Thakore, BJP vs Uttamrao Patil, Congress).
The Congress alliance would most likely see an improvement
in its electoral fortunes from its 1996 tally of two seats.
Elections '98
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