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February 16, 1998

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Blasts will not make a crucial difference to poll outcome

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

It may be advantageous to some extent for the BJP-AIADMK alliance in Tamil Nadu, but Saturday's Coimbatore blasts may not have the same impact as the Rajiv Gandhi assassination in electoral terms, according to knowledgeable sources. Indications are that the AIADMK-led alliance, particularly its partner the BJP, may stand to gain in 'marginal constituencies', where it had a fighting chance on hand.

"It has certainly shocked the voters, but not as badly as the Rajiv Gandhi assassination," says an election observer of the Tamil Maanila Congress for a Lok Sabha constituency in the southern districts. The constituency, like the rest of them in the region, is going to the polls in the second phase on February 22, and he feels, "there will only be a marginal drift in the voting pattern".

According to DMK sources also, there will not be much of an electoral impact from the Coimbatore blasts. "We could not even dream of campaigning for the 1991 election after Rajiv Gandhi's assassination, but this time round there is no political animosity or public aversion to the DMK," says a campaign manager at the party headquarters.

This, he attributes to the people's appreciation that the DMK has learnt its lessons from the Rajiv Gandhi assassination, and "will not do anything that will be politically suicidal." He adds in the same vein: "The state government could at best be charged with negligence, not connivance or collusion."

Also, he says, there is a clear public perception that the DMK party and government are not behind the law and order problems and blasts in the state, which was not the impression they had of the erstwhile AIADMK government of Jayalalitha. "That perception about the AIADMK has not changed even now, though at least a section of the voters have a soft corner for the BJP and its leadership."

Against this, however, BJP sources claim that the blasts, of which party president L K Advani was the 'chief target' will have a "good impact" on polling pattern in the state. "I will not be surprised if it has some impact even in the adjoining states, and also the north," says one of them.

But he too concedes that Advani's off-the-cuff remarks in the immediate post-blast scenario might not have gone down well with all sections. "The people have not as yet come to identity the DMK with lawlessness as they did with the AIADMK regime."

What, however, has come as a boost for the DMK-TMC campaign at this hour of crisis is the reaction of superstar Rajnikanth. Returning from his Hong Kong holiday on Sunday evening, he addressed a hurriedly-convened press conference at night, condemning Jayalalitha's leadership of the AIADMK, and asking his fans not to use his name to seek votes for anyone but the DMK-TMC combine.

More importantly, Rajnikanth asserted that Muslims as a community would not want to target Advani, as it would not serve their political purpose. But there might be some "thorns" in the community which they better remove.

"Some interested political parties in the state are out to create problems for the DMK-TMC combine, and use it to get the DMK government dismissed. If such events are repeated, there will be a 'revolution' in Tamil Nadu, and I will take on the challenge directly," he declared.

Rajnikanth's interview has since become the mainstay of the DMK-TMC combine. It is being aired at regular intervals on Sun TV, owned by the Karunanidhi family.

"But Rajnikanth has been sourly misled by his TMC-DMK friends," says the BJP source. "He has not understood the mood of the masses, nor of his fans." The youth, who constitute most of Rajnikanth's fans, are all in favour of the BJP forming a stable government at the Centre. Even if they are against the AIADMK at the state-level, they have a different perception of the BJP and national-level politics."

In this context, he says Rajnikanth has not made that fine distinction that his fans have already made. "He was subtle but sure about his preference for the BJP at the Centre, and for the DMK-TMC combine in the state, when he issued a statement before emplaning for Hong Kong last month. But in his hour of confusion, he has been blind to the changing political scenario at the ground-level, and has been absorbed wholly by his anti-Jayalaliahta perception."

"This," says an AIADMK headquarters official, is "sure sign of the party staging a comeback." Adds he: "Rajnikanth seems to be getting clear signals that 'Amma' is on her comeback trail, and has given vent to his own personal fears and frustrations."

Yet, he too concedes that the Coimbatore blasts may not alter the voting pattern much, as "most voters have already made up their mind, and there will only be a marginal change, which need not necessarily affect the results."

Elections '98

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