Rediff On The NeT: CMS-Asianet poll gives BJP 230-240 seats, Sonia powers Congress to 155


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February 12, 1998

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CMS-Asianet poll gives BJP 230-240 seats, Sonia powers Congress to 155

With just three days to go for the first leg of polling, there is no wave in voting intentions either way in this election despite considerable shift in voting intentions.

Despite more than 9.6 per cent swing in the popular vote over 1996, a working majority eludes the BJP and its allies in this election to the 12th Lok Sabha.

Despite her late and surprise entry, the Sonia Gandhi effect has dashed the BJP's hopes.

These are the findings of an opinion poll conducted by the independent Centre for Media Studies for the Asianet television channel in the first week of February (4^th to 7^th).

The BJP and its allies -- All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Akali Dal, Biju Janata Dal, Haryana Vikas Party, Lok Shakti, Samata Party, Shiv Sena, Telugu Desam Party-Lakshmi Parvati, Trinamool Congress -- are likely to get between 230 and 240 seats, according to this latest pre-poll survey. The Congress and its allies may have a tally of between 145 and 155 seats with 1.9 per cent positive swings.

The biggest loser will be the United Front, which may lose 72 to 82 seats with a negative swing of 11.2 per cent over its 1996 share, according to the Asianet-CMS pre-poll survey.

In this survey, CMS researchers individually interviewed 3,325 voters spread over 22 Lok Sabha constituencies in four regions of the country. The 11 states include Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. Each of these 22 Lok Sabha constituencies was chosen and assumed representative of a cluster of constituencies reflecting similar electoral trends/voting behaviour in the recent past.

This is the fourth pre-poll survey conducted by the CMS since the dissolution of the Lok Sabha in the first week of December 1997.

Despite certain improvement in the number of seats projected for the BJP and its allies and also the Congress in the Asianet-CMS poll since the Frontline-CMS poll at the end of January, there is no significant difference in the projection of the overall outcome of the Lok Sabha election.

According to the survey, it will be a hung Parliament once again, but with a clear advantage to the BJP. On the eve of the dissolution of the 11th Lok Sabha, the CMS was the first agency to conduct a survey and found it would be a hung House again.

With no new support coming from any party as of now, the BJP would still be short of 30 seats for a clear, simple majority. No solution seems to be in sight to the likely impasse in March.

At the end of the first week of February, the BJP had improved its position in vote intentions -- marginally in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. However, it is still within the 200-seat tally.

The Congress also made further gains last week in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, two states on which Sonia Gandhi has been concentrating in her campaigns.

A fallout of the result of this election could be the stability of the Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh state governments.

The BJP has gained one percentage point in the North and South. In the West it has made a gain of 0.6 percentage points since the last week of January.

For the BJP, the maximum gain of 21 and 22 seats (over 1996) is expected from the East and South, and a gain of five seats in Uttar Pradesh and seven in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.

The Congress, on the other hand, has gained in the South (1.1 percentage points) and in the East (0.5 percentage points).

For the Congress the gain since the CMS survey in the last week of January would be three seats in Orissa and West Bengal in the East, and six seats in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka in the South.

For the United Front, losses continue to be mostly in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa and Karnataka.

With 6 per cent undecided voters as of the first week of February and a staggered three-phased poll schedule over a two-week period and the competitiveness in the contests being what it is, a difference of 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points in vote share between now and the next fortnight at the regional level could make all the difference in the fortunes of the two key contenders.

Other findings of the Asianet-CMS poll include:

One out of every six voters in this election is unhappy with the candidates in his/her constituency. In fact, in some states the dissatisfaction is as high as a quarter of voters as in West Bengal, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh. Over all, only half of the voters acknowledged that they are happy with the candidate.

Around 60 per cent of voters consider national issues as more important in this election, against a quarter of voters for whom the state level issues are more important. In fact, in states like Andhra Pradesh and Orissa both state and national issues are considered important. In Madhya Pradesh, local/state issues matter more to a higher per cent of voters.

While 'stability of the government' has remained a concern for one-third of voters from the very outset of this campaign, 'good governance,' corruption and price rise are the other issues which are viewed as important problems facing the voters on the eve of the election. Corruption has become an issue as the campaign progresses for one-fifth of voters during the first week of February, against around 10 to 12 per cent at the beginning of the election campaign during early January.

Casteism/communalism is also viewed as a problem bothering people, by ten per cent of voters.

Perhaps as never before in recent elections to the Lok Sabha, a much higher percentage of voters have changed their voting intention in this election as against the previous election in 1996, bringing out the volatility of voters in this campaign.

In fact, in some states this percentage of 'floating' or 'shifting voters' was above 30 per cent during the first week of February, perhaps because of splits, coalitions or the emergence of new parties locally.

Three most important reasons for deciding to vote differently (shifting to another party) in this election (as compared to the previous election) is either mostly because the choice of the party has changed, or the candidate's image or the performance of the sitting candidate/an old face was not good enough.

Interestingly, a higher per cent of those who rejected the idea, intend to vote the BJP in the election.

As high as about 70 per cent of the voters in this survey have either seen or heard Sonia Gandhi campaigning in the election, that is in less than a month's time. No other leader on the national scene ever before had received such a reach/coverage even after three to four decades in public affairs. Since the findings are based from an extensive rural/urban sample, it is significant.

It is clear that television has launched Sonia on the national scene in this election. Despite entering the campaign late and with only a few visits and no press conferences and the like, Sonia has emerged close only to the otherwise only popular contender in the field, Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

A majority of those who had heard or seen Sonia in the campaign did so on one or the other television channel. In the southern states, however, newspapers were also mentioned in equal numbers as the source of their exposure to Sonia's campaigns by a majority of voters. In Bihar, West Bengal and Orissa about one-fifth have mentioned radio as their primary source of hearing about Sonia.

CMS PRE-POLL SURVEYS: 1998 LOK SABHA

CMS Forecast

Surveys
dates Election Scene Const. covered Sample size BJP Cong UF Others Margin
of
error

CMS-1
Dec 3-5
The field work started once it was evident that India was heading for an election.
Sonia nowhere in politics

40 2,800 195 to 235 80 to 120 160 to 190 10 to 20 5%

CMS-2
Jan 7-10
Nomination process yet to start
Alliance options at large
Sonia likely 60 8,400 235 to 245 140 to 150 120 to 130 30 to 40 4%

Frontline
CMS-3
Jan 27-30
Candidate options known -- mostly
Formal alliances known
Campaign picked up
Sonia in active campaign and had one round by then 61 8,900 225
to
235* 145
to
155
** 120
to
130
*** 32
to
52
**** 3%

Asianet
CMS-4
Feb 4-7
Last leg of campaign
Sonia in full swing 22 +3,200 230
to 240* 145
to
155
** 110
to
120
*** 35
to
45
**** 4%

*The BJP includes the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Akali Dal, Biju Janata Dal, Haryana Vikas Party, Lok Shakti, Samata Party, Shiv Sena, Telugu Desam Party-Lakshmi Parvati, Trinamool Congress.
**The Congress includes the Bahujan Samaj Party in Punjab and the Samajwadi Party, Republican Party of India in Maharashtra.
***The UF includes the Asom Gana Parishad, the DMK, the Janata Dal, the Left Front, the Samajwadi Party, the Tamil Maanila Congress and the TDP.
****Others include the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Rashtriya Janata Party.

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