There are signs of China's external behaviour becoming more aggressive in the coming years. If that happens, strategic implications for neighbours having territorial disputes with China can become deeper and imperatives can rise for the former to counteract, says D S Rajan
Though the Chinese find it necessary to oppose the visits of Indian leaders to Arunachal Pradesh, they want to keep the objections at a moderate level lest it cast a shadow on Narendra Modi's visit to China in May, says D S Rajan.
While the official media is silent on the issue, Chinese blogs and websites are much kinder to the banned Maoist rebels, writes China expert D S Rajan.
China experts feel Indian defence strategy treats China, not Pakistan, as priority target, which they also believe provides for a partial border war, writes D S Rajan.
'There is an upsurge already in Indian and Chinese nationalisms and the attitudes of the two peoples get sharpened on issues like that involving territory, affecting public sentiments.'
An article in the official organ of the Chinese Communist Party reveals China's thinking on its security environment in its neighbourhood. It may indicate a shift in thinking towards strategic cooperation and operation of soft power by China, writes D S Rajan.
A recent article in the Chinese Communist Party newspaper appears to be more categorical in conveying a message: US-India 'unified strategy' on all major regional issues is possible and that may change the strategic situation in South Asia. This shifts the focus on indications to China's possible counter moves in the future.
China, Zhan Lue argues, should join forces with different nationalities like the Assamese, Tamils, and Kashmiris and support the latter in establishing independent nation-States of their own out of India.
An authoritative and well-connected strategic affairs journal in China has come out with a prompt independent comment on the progress in the N-deal.
The boundary question may not affect the present comfort level in bilateral ties, as both sides agree to look beyond the border dispute in promoting relations with each other. One cannot be optimistic, however, about the likely scenario in the long run.
What can be expected from Pranab Mukherjee's visit to China? With full details of the agenda not open to the public, a clear picture may not be available at this juncture. It can be said, however, that a breakthrough on the boundary issue seems very unlikely, as the two sides appear to have failed so far in finalising a 'framework' for the settlement.
The tracing of internal dimensions of Dr Singh's visit to Arunachal by the Chinese experts (pressure from the Indian military and the need to 'balance' the moves of anti-China hawkish sections in India) seems to reflect China's doubts over the likely impact on the border talks coming from future political equations in India, especially in the context of general elections due in that country next year.
Between India's democracy and China's opaque political system, non-military transparency in particular, Abe sides with the former. On India's nuclear programme, the Japanese prime minister had refused to compare India's case with that of North Korea.
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