All stories by Arup Roychoudhury
Coronavirus to impact fiscal deficit, divestment targetsRediff.com4 days ago
Officials said there had been no official word or indication from the top yet. The expectation from officials is to do what they can, but it is understood that all fiscal and budgetary targets don't matter anymore.
What the economy needs: Painful medium-term stepsRediff.com4 Mar 2020
''Even without major reforms, with a business as usual scenario, and with current inflation trends, we should be clocking around 11 to 12 per cent nominal growth.' 'That is not happening and is a source of worry,' Rathin Roy tells Arup Roychoudhury.
Centre to issue government securities without foreign limits soonRediff.com24 Feb 2020
While the FPI limit on most bond issues would not be raised above 6 per cent, there would be some in which there would be no limits, reports Arup Roychoudhury.
15th Finance Commission report: Devolution for FY20-21 cut marginallyRediff.com2 Feb 2020
This is due to the newly formed Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, which will get funds from the Centre's share, which means devolution will be for 28 states compared to 29 earlier.
15th FC may hike grants, cut devolution to statesRediff.com30 Jan 2020
Any reduction in devolution could aggravate the strained relations between the Centre and some opposition-ruled states on a number of issues, including CAA.
In Centre's fire sale: land, factories, apartments, office spaceRediff.com27 Jan 2020
Processes are at an advanced stage for a number of assets of the Centre and central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) to be monetised. The assets include office space, apartments, factories, land, power transmission assets, sports stadia, gas pipelines, and telecom assets.
Budget maths won't be hit if oil is below $70Rediff.com17 Jan 2020
Oil sank to the lowest level in a month after shedding all of its gains from the US-Iran clash as traders waited to see whether any further hostilities will disrupt exports from the East Asia.
Govt set to breach fiscal deficit targetRediff.com8 Jan 2020
If the fiscal deficit for the year can be maintained at Rs 7.04 trillion, the deficit as a percentage of GDP will slip to 3.44 per cent
How Nirmalaji compares with earlier FMsRediff.com6 Jan 2020
While the situation Sitharaman finds herself in may not be that good, how does it stack up against her three immediate predecessors Pranab Mukherjee, P Chidambaram and the late Arun Jaitley?
Budget 2020: FY21 growth rate likely to be pegged at 6-6.5%Rediff.com6 Jan 2020
It is also likely to assume a deflator of around 4 per cent. That could take the nominal GDP outlook for FY21 to around 10 per cent. It is this nominal GDP forecast on the basis of which the finance ministry is calculating key Budget targets like the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP and tax revenue growth for the coming year.
The men behind Sitharaman's 2nd BudgetRediff.com30 Dec 2019
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her second Budget a little more than a month from now. Like any other FM, Sitharaman will depend on her team of bureaucrats and advisors to frame and present the Budget.
Economists tell Sitharaman to focus on reviving growthRediff.com21 Dec 2019
At a pre-Budget meeting, the FM was asked to ensure that NBFCs come out of the liquidity crisis they are facing with the help of RBI. They also spoke about the futility of trying to achieve a 3 per cent fiscal deficit target over the medium term.
Govt set to miss FY20 fiscal deficit targetRediff.com18 Dec 2019
Even with the possible expenditure roll-overs and off-budget financing, the fiscal deficit target will not be met. The FRBM Act, after its amendment in 2018, allows a fiscal deficit slippage of not more than 0.5 per cent for any given year, provided there are justifications. These justifications include war, national security, severe collapse in the agriculture sector, a major natural calamity, big structural economic reforms, or the decline in real output growth of a quarter by at least 3 percentage points below its average of the previous four quarters.
Budget 2020: What Sitharaman has in store for youRediff.com26 Nov 2019
Long-term capital gains tax may be scrapped and the burden of dividend distribution tax could perhaps be shifted from companies to shareholders. Also, the Budget could provide income tax relief for the salaried classes, while proposing tax sops for small, medium and micro enterprises.
July-Sep GDP growth may fall below 5%Rediff.com2 Nov 2019
'We expect a pick-up in the second half of the current fiscal. But before that, data is likely to show a further slowdown. The second quarter print is likely to be worse than the first quarter,' said a senior official.
'For sustained growth, investment is absolutely critical'Rediff.com31 Oct 2019
The economy could grow at 6-6.5 per cent this fiscal year (2019-20 or FY20), said Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian, revising his earlier estimate of 7 per cent in the Economic Survey. In an interaction with Arup Roychoudhury, he said supply-side measures, including corporation tax cuts, will boost consumption and demand, and non-tax revenue may make up for shortfall in tax revenues.
Bibek Debroy retained as chairman of PM's economic councilRediff.com26 Sep 2019
Sajjid Chenoy, India economist at JP Morgan is the new part-time member.
As FM, Jaitley will be remembered for fiscal rectitudeRediff.com25 Aug 2019
For his first Budget in July 2014, Jaitley inherited a fiscal deficit target of 4.1 per cent of GDP. From 4.1 per cent, the fiscal deficit came down to 3.4 per cent by 2018-19, with two slippages from the budgeted targets, in 2017-18 and 2018-19, the former due to introduction of the GST, says Arup Roychoudhury.
How Sitharaman plans to tackle economic slowdownRediff.com6 Aug 2019
As the government plans to take sector-specific steps to tackle the slump, Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will soon hold talks with representatives from various sectors to get and take steps so that the confidence of those sectors can be restored.
Overseas sovereign bonds are happening, but in tranchesRediff.com2 Aug 2019
An official said that people in the government were aware of the benefits as well as the drawbacks of issuing overseas sovereign bonds, and there will be consultations with all stakeholders.
As finance secretary, Garg rubbed too many the wrong wayRediff.com25 Jul 2019
Owing to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman being new to her role, a number of crucial announcements in the Budget bore Garg's imprint, especially the decision to borrow in overseas markets, reduce the fiscal deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product, and resort to off-Budget borrowing to meet that target, says Arup Roychoudury.
$3-4 billion worth sovereign bonds likely to be issued in 1st phaseRediff.com23 Jul 2019
The bonds will likely be simultaneously launched in major financial centres such as London, Singapore, Hong Kong, New York for a term of no less than 20 years.
Govt sets October deadline for sale of Air IndiaRediff.com8 Jul 2019
Sources in the know said the government would initiate talks with businesses, including Tatas, shortly for divesting its stake in the national carrier.
Budget: Divestment target likely to be retained at Rs 90,000 croreRediff.com1 Jul 2019
The divestment target remaining unchanged, from the 2019-20 interim Budget, this year means the Centre will now have to depend on non-tax revenue sources like dividends from the RBI, PSBs and PSUs, as there are real concerns of a tax revenue shortfall. The fiscal deficit target of 3.4% of GDP for 2019-20 is likely to be retained as well.
Fiscal deficit reaches 52% of target in 2 monthsRediff.com29 Jun 2019
It was 55.3 per cent for the same period last year, and data shows the fiscal deficit for April-May was kept in reasonable check in spite of heavy frontloading of expenditure.
Air India sale: Sitharaman, Hardeep Singh Puri likely to be in new GoMRediff.com19 Jun 2019
The government is planning to liberalise the terms and conditions for the sale of the national carrier. The Centre is still pursuing the option of selling the airline's subsidiaries before the airline itself, in order to deal with an outstanding debt of around Rs 27,000 crore.
Budget 2019: Why FM likely to stick to fiscal deficit target at 3.4% of GDPRediff.com18 Jun 2019
Budget-makers in North Block are looking to maintain this fiscal status quo, in spite of tax revenues nowhere close to where the government wants and in spite of possible higher expenditure commitments.
What economists and FM Sitharaman discussed in pre-Budget meetRediff.com17 Jun 2019
Concerned by GDP slowdown and unrealistic tax targets, the economists urged Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to implement long-term structural steps like land and labour reforms. Warning against any off-Budget financing the economists said the government should prepare a statement of intent for its social, rural and welfare sector expenditure.
What Sitharaman did after becoming the finance ministerRediff.com3 Jun 2019
This is not her first stint in North Block or in leading a major economic ministry. She started Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first term as minister of state for finance, was made the commerce minister, and then became the defence minister.
What's up in India's second largest constituency?Rediff.com27 Apr 2019
BJP banks on Modi, Congress on its candidate Manvendra Singh in Barmer, India's largest constituency by area after Ladakh.
Will Jet finally end up in bankruptcy court?Rediff.com19 Apr 2019
Government officials were struggling to understand why the lenders denied emergency funds even after giving verbal assurances on providing Rs 1,200 crore.
Arun Jaitley to attend annual IMF-World Bank meeting in AprilRediff.com2 Apr 2019
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das and Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg are also expected to attend the meetings.
India is suffering from the worst water crisis in its historyRediff.com27 Mar 2019
A report said that India accounts for almost one-fourth of the total groundwater extracted globally, more than that of China and US combined thus using the largest amount of groundwater, around 24 per cent of the global total.
Is Modi govt hiding bad data?Rediff.com15 Mar 2019
108 economists, social scientists said it was imperative that agencies like CSO and NSSO are not subject to political interference.
Abhi's quick return seems difficultRediff.com28 Feb 2019
'They will keep him there for quite some time.' 'There are no easy options.' 'It won't be unusual for a foreign power to intervene and get him released after some time, but not immediately.'
Balakot air strike: Brace for retaliationRediff.com27 Feb 2019
Not only is there a possibility for a conventional retaliation by Pakistan, there could also be terror attacks.
Centre backed out of minimum income scheme for all farmersRediff.com12 Feb 2019
The decision to scrap the plan for landless workers and focus only on small and marginal farmers was made as there was no proper method to find out who qualify as landless labourers.
Another desperate attempt by the govt to rein in fiscal deficitRediff.com7 Feb 2019
The combined fertiliser, food and petroleum subsidy budgeted estimate for FY19 is Rs 2.64 trillion, while the revised estimate is Rs 2.66 trillion. If the carrying forward to FY20 does not happen, the revised estimates for the major subsidies could actually cross Rs 3 trillion for the first time ever.
General Budget or Interim Budget?Rediff.com31 Jan 2019
General Budget is a terminology earlier used to differentiate between the Union Budget with the Railway Budget. Full-fledged budgets are titled "Union Budget", while interim Budgets are titled just that.
Interim Budget: Cheers for taxpayers likelyRediff.com28 Jan 2019
The finance minister is likely to announce the government's vision for a tax-friendly regime by raising the I-T exemption limit from the current Rs 250,000 per annum.