Arup Roychoudhury

All stories by Arup Roychoudhury

After 40% rise in Q1, capital expenditure dropped in July

After 40% rise in Q1, capital expenditure dropped in July

Rediff.com8 Sep 2020

Almost all infrastructure ministries continued spending on capex throughout the lockdown, even as the Centre tried to maintain some semblance of economic normalcy.

Q1 GDP data: Employment-creating sectors hit the most

Q1 GDP data: Employment-creating sectors hit the most

Rediff.com2 Sep 2020

The sudden stop in economic activity led to a sharp decline in employment-intensive sectors like construction, manufacturing and trade, hotels, transport etc.

FinMin unlikely to take Covid-hit FY21 as a base for FY22 Budget

FinMin unlikely to take Covid-hit FY21 as a base for FY22 Budget

Rediff.com14 Aug 2020

Instead, 2019-20 could be the base from which the Budget estimates for next year are calculated.

Revealed: Modi's plans for the economy

Revealed: Modi's plans for the economy

Rediff.com3 Aug 2020

he government is examining a plan of bank recapitalisation and considering an urban version of MNREGS.

As COVID decimates tax revenues, govt eyes higher RBI surplus this year

As COVID decimates tax revenues, govt eyes higher RBI surplus this year

Rediff.com8 Jul 2020

The thinking at the Centre is that since the RBI has ramped up purchases of government bonds, the interest earned on them will be transferred to the exchequer as dividend.

'Why are even our sewing needles made in China?'

'Why are even our sewing needles made in China?'

Rediff.com8 Jul 2020

'We are not able to manufacture even low-end products as cheaply as China.' 'We are not buying Chinese goods today out of any love for China.'

Govt may get RBI to monetise fiscal deficit

Govt may get RBI to monetise fiscal deficit

Rediff.com6 Jul 2020

So far, the RBI has been 'indirectly monetising' by increasing the purchases of G-Secs in the secondary market through open-market operations.

Govt readies plan to boost demand with infra spend, cash transfer

Govt readies plan to boost demand with infra spend, cash transfer

Rediff.com11 Jun 2020

This includes an infrastructure push which may lead to the government spending more than its budgeted capital expenditure for 2020-21. There are also discussions on increasing the scope and quantum of direct cash transfers to the beneficiaries who need it the most.

Current fiscal deficit may go up to 5.3% of GDP: CEA

Current fiscal deficit may go up to 5.3% of GDP: CEA

Rediff.com6 Jun 2020

'Given the 50 per cent or thereabouts increase in borrowing that has been announced, it is a reasonable estimate to say that at this time, an increase of 1.7-1.8 per cent on the 3.5 per cent budgeted fiscal deficit target is being anticipated,' Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said on Friday.

'This was not specifically a COVID package'

'This was not specifically a COVID package'

Rediff.com30 May 2020

'It is a package for a new self-reliant India.'

Govt wants PSUs to ramp up dividends, share buybacks

Govt wants PSUs to ramp up dividends, share buybacks

Rediff.com28 May 2020

This comes at a time when the COVID-19 crisis is expected to derail the government's revenue maths for 2020-21, hitting the mop-up from sources such as taxes and divestment.

How states can avail extra borrowing from the markets

How states can avail extra borrowing from the markets

Rediff.com20 May 2020

These conditions are implementation of the 'One Nation, One Ration Card' scheme, ease of doing business, power sector reforms, and urban local body reforms.

Sitharaman may announce Rs 3 trillion stimulus package this week

Sitharaman may announce Rs 3 trillion stimulus package this week

Rediff.com12 May 2020

There could be multiple measures announced in quick succession, not only by the finance minister but also other ministers regarding their respective sectors, and by the Reserve Bank of India. The total size of these announcements could rival that of other G-20 nations as a percentage of GDP.

Many challenges await new FinMin secretary

Many challenges await new FinMin secretary

Rediff.com2 May 2020

The finance minister is ready to present a second financial package. The Centre has ruled out a mega stimulus and will rely on targeted, incremental packages. Industry is clamouring for a bailout, the liquidity upheaval in capital markets is nowhere close to being sorted out, and all budgetary forecasts now stand irrelevant, reports Arup Roychoudhury.

Industry will have to wait, 2nd stimulus package to target MSMEs, weaker sections

Industry will have to wait, 2nd stimulus package to target MSMEs, weaker sections

Rediff.com29 Apr 2020

The beneficiaries of the second set of announcements are expected to be micro, small, and medium enterprises, farmers, women, poor, migrant workers, and other marginalised sections of the society, reports Arup Roychoudhury.

RBI unlikely to monetise Centre's fiscal deficit

RBI unlikely to monetise Centre's fiscal deficit

Rediff.com21 Apr 2020

This is because the bond market has factored in the Rs 4.88-trillion gross borrowing for April-September 2020.

Uncertainty looms over Rs 2.1-trn divestment target

Uncertainty looms over Rs 2.1-trn divestment target

Rediff.com13 Apr 2020

The worst-case scenario is the two marquee names up for privatisation - Air India and Bharat Petroleum - may not happen this year, and what the Centre may get in divestment proceeds could just be a fraction of the target.

RBI admits GDP forecasts were off the mark

RBI admits GDP forecasts were off the mark

Rediff.com10 Apr 2020

The downward surprise in Q2 stemmed from a stronger-than-anticipated drag from gross fixed capital formation and marginal weakness in private final consumption expenditure. In Q3, projection errors emanated mainly from a steep unanticipated contraction in gross fixed capital formation, which was the deepest in the new series of GDP.

Centre allows states to borrow 50% of '20-'21 limit in April

Centre allows states to borrow 50% of '20-'21 limit in April

Rediff.com6 Apr 2020

This permission was given some time late last month, before the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on March 31 issued the indicative borrowing calendar for the states for April-June and the one for the Centre for April-September.

Coronavirus puts spotlight on looming fiscal deficit

Coronavirus puts spotlight on looming fiscal deficit

Rediff.com1 Apr 2020

To meet the revised estimates for 2019-20, the central government will have to garner Rs 5.03 trillion in total revenues in March, which has seen the worst phase of the coronavirus pandemic so far and the resultant lockdown.

Economy: 'March impacted. April and May will also get hit'

Economy: 'March impacted. April and May will also get hit'

Rediff.com30 Mar 2020

'This is a period of significant uncertainty, of unknown unknowns.'

Coronavirus to impact fiscal deficit, divestment targets

Coronavirus to impact fiscal deficit, divestment targets

Rediff.com24 Mar 2020

Officials said there had been no official word or indication from the top yet. The expectation from officials is to do what they can, but it is understood that all fiscal and budgetary targets don't matter anymore.

What the economy needs: Painful medium-term steps

What the economy needs: Painful medium-term steps

Rediff.com4 Mar 2020

''Even without major reforms, with a business as usual scenario, and with current inflation trends, we should be clocking around 11 to 12 per cent nominal growth.' 'That is not happening and is a source of worry,' Rathin Roy tells Arup Roychoudhury.

Centre to issue government securities without foreign limits soon

Centre to issue government securities without foreign limits soon

Rediff.com24 Feb 2020

While the FPI limit on most bond issues would not be raised above 6 per cent, there would be some in which there would be no limits, reports Arup Roychoudhury.

15th Finance Commission report: Devolution for FY20-21 cut marginally

15th Finance Commission report: Devolution for FY20-21 cut marginally

Rediff.com2 Feb 2020

This is due to the newly formed Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, which will get funds from the Centre's share, which means devolution will be for 28 states compared to 29 earlier.

15th FC may hike grants, cut devolution to states

15th FC may hike grants, cut devolution to states

Rediff.com30 Jan 2020

Any reduction in devolution could aggravate the strained relations between the Centre and some opposition-ruled states on a number of issues, including CAA.

In Centre's fire sale: land, factories, apartments, office space

In Centre's fire sale: land, factories, apartments, office space

Rediff.com27 Jan 2020

Processes are at an advanced stage for a number of assets of the Centre and central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) to be monetised. The assets include office space, apartments, factories, land, power transmission assets, sports stadia, gas pipelines, and telecom assets.

Budget maths won't be hit if oil is below $70

Budget maths won't be hit if oil is below $70

Rediff.com17 Jan 2020

Oil sank to the lowest level in a month after shedding all of its gains from the US-Iran clash as traders waited to see whether any further hostilities will disrupt exports from the East Asia.

Govt set to breach fiscal deficit target

Govt set to breach fiscal deficit target

Rediff.com8 Jan 2020

If the fiscal deficit for the year can be maintained at Rs 7.04 trillion, the deficit as a percentage of GDP will slip to 3.44 per cent

How Nirmalaji compares with earlier FMs

How Nirmalaji compares with earlier FMs

Rediff.com6 Jan 2020

While the situation Sitharaman finds herself in may not be that good, how does it stack up against her three immediate predecessors Pranab Mukherjee, P Chidambaram and the late Arun Jaitley?

Budget 2020: FY21 growth rate likely to be pegged at 6-6.5%

Budget 2020: FY21 growth rate likely to be pegged at 6-6.5%

Rediff.com6 Jan 2020

It is also likely to assume a deflator of around 4 per cent. That could take the nominal GDP outlook for FY21 to around 10 per cent. It is this nominal GDP forecast on the basis of which the finance ministry is calculating key Budget targets like the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP and tax revenue growth for the coming year.

The men behind Sitharaman's 2nd Budget

The men behind Sitharaman's 2nd Budget

Rediff.com30 Dec 2019

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her second Budget a little more than a month from now. Like any other FM, Sitharaman will depend on her team of bureaucrats and advisors to frame and present the Budget.

Economists tell Sitharaman to focus on reviving growth

Economists tell Sitharaman to focus on reviving growth

Rediff.com21 Dec 2019

At a pre-Budget meeting, the FM was asked to ensure that NBFCs come out of the liquidity crisis they are facing with the help of RBI. They also spoke about the futility of trying to achieve a 3 per cent fiscal deficit target over the medium term.

Govt set to miss FY20 fiscal deficit target

Govt set to miss FY20 fiscal deficit target

Rediff.com18 Dec 2019

Even with the possible expenditure roll-overs and off-budget financing, the fiscal deficit target will not be met. The FRBM Act, after its amendment in 2018, allows a fiscal deficit slippage of not more than 0.5 per cent for any given year, provided there are justifications. These justifications include war, national security, severe collapse in the agriculture sector, a major natural calamity, big structural economic reforms, or the decline in real output growth of a quarter by at least 3 percentage points below its average of the previous four quarters.

Budget 2020: What Sitharaman has in store for you

Budget 2020: What Sitharaman has in store for you

Rediff.com26 Nov 2019

Long-term capital gains tax may be scrapped and the burden of dividend distribution tax could perhaps be shifted from companies to shareholders. Also, the Budget could provide income tax relief for the salaried classes, while proposing tax sops for small, medium and micro enterprises.

July-Sep GDP growth may fall below 5%

July-Sep GDP growth may fall below 5%

Rediff.com2 Nov 2019

'We expect a pick-up in the second half of the current fiscal. But before that, data is likely to show a further slowdown. The second quarter print is likely to be worse than the first quarter,' said a senior official.

'For sustained growth, investment is absolutely critical'

'For sustained growth, investment is absolutely critical'

Rediff.com31 Oct 2019

The economy could grow at 6-6.5 per cent this fiscal year (2019-20 or FY20), said Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian, revising his earlier estimate of 7 per cent in the Economic Survey. In an interaction with Arup Roychoudhury, he said supply-side measures, including corporation tax cuts, will boost consumption and demand, and non-tax revenue may make up for shortfall in tax revenues.

Bibek Debroy retained as chairman of PM's economic council

Bibek Debroy retained as chairman of PM's economic council

Rediff.com26 Sep 2019

Sajjid Chenoy, India economist at JP Morgan is the new part-time member.

As FM, Jaitley will be remembered for fiscal rectitude

As FM, Jaitley will be remembered for fiscal rectitude

Rediff.com25 Aug 2019

For his first Budget in July 2014, Jaitley inherited a fiscal deficit target of 4.1 per cent of GDP. From 4.1 per cent, the fiscal deficit came down to 3.4 per cent by 2018-19, with two slippages from the budgeted targets, in 2017-18 and 2018-19, the former due to introduction of the GST, says Arup Roychoudhury.

How Sitharaman plans to tackle economic slowdown

How Sitharaman plans to tackle economic slowdown

Rediff.com6 Aug 2019

As the government plans to take sector-specific steps to tackle the slump, Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will soon hold talks with representatives from various sectors to get and take steps so that the confidence of those sectors can be restored.

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