Delhi should keep all its options open in what is essentially a transitional period in the geopolitics of energy rather than remain a gatekeeper serving Trump's 'America First', suggests Ambasssador M K Bhadrakumar.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are actively pushing Trump to take the war to its bitter finish and 'erase' Iran's presence in the geopolitics of the region. Simply put, the two most powerful Sunni Arab oligarchies are on the same page as Israel. Such interference increases the risk of a breakdown in dialogue between the US and Iran, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
16 days into the war, US forces were already running out of ground-attack missiles and Israel is about to expend its entire Arrow interceptor missiles by end March. To be sure, the Iranians are watching closely and that explains their defiant stance that 'Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its conditions are met', notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
India's handling of the Iran crisis reflects a growing strain between strategic autonomy and geopolitical alignment, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
To be sure, Trump is furious, as the trajectory of the war is in a state of Zugzwang, as chess players call it. Trump and Netanyahu stare at two choices -- retreat in humiliation and concede Tehran's demands -- recognition of its rights, reparations, and binding security guarantees -- or perish in a quagmire, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
As days turn into weeks and America loses more planes, as the destruction of trillions of dollars worth military assets piles up, and dead bodies of soldiers return in ever greater numbers in coffins, Trump will have to answer some very difficult questions to save his presidency, notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'The entire US ecosystem built over decades at the bases in the Gulf region, especially the UAE, costing trillions of dollars have been decimated, dealing a mortal blow to the US Central Command's war capability,' points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The threat of wars hovers over the negotiations in Oman, but the good part is that Trump called the talks to be 'very good' and Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian responded that they 'constitute a step forward', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Whether Trump will actually press ahead with the oil sanctions remains unclear, since keeping Russian oil out of the world market risks high oil prices which could boomerang on the US economy and be damaging politically for Trump, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'There are times when India should stand up without hesitation and voice its indignation over the US' pressure tactic. This is one such moment,' asserts Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'During the 5-day visit, Amir Khan Muttaqi would have, conceivably, bumped into our powerful security agencies one way or another and some interaction would have ensued, which, in turn, can lead to future dealings.' 'Indeed, this will be the one crucial template of the Indo-Afghan relationship that Pakistan will be monitoring closely,' points Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'Trump does have a master plan in mind to put pressure on India with the additional tariff of 25 per cent to get Modi to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to freeze the Ukraine war.' 'It has not worked so far. By end-September only we'll know for sure the future trajectory of India's oil purchases from Russia,' observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
India and the US have collaborated through the past one month on launching a powerful satellite; are commencing joint production of GE Aerospace's F414 jet engines in India; India is participating in a massive three week-long military exercise in the Western Pacific, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
By threatening to punish India with high tariff, Trump is actually planting a tantalising thought in the Indian mind that the Modi government should suitably 'incentivise' him, explains Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Trump couldn't care less anymore about the Israeli demand for Iran's 'de-nuclearisation' and 'de-militarisation.' Trump pins hopes on a grand bargain with Iran as a partner in America First, argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Will Russia's entry deter Trump on his warpath?, asks Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Trump has a major decision to take in coming days -- specifically, how to rescue Israel from the attritional war that lies ahead, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
An inconclusive end to this war will pose high risk for Netanyahu of a cascading demand for a regime change in Israel, predicts Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Israel's aerial assault on Iran is widely viewed as an act of naked aggression with no basis in international law, carried out unilaterally despite US opposition and aimed at derailing ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'It is high time that the 'war on terror' is removed from our diplomatic toolbox.' 'Certainly, our parliamentarians have no role in it,' asserts Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
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