'In 2014, the Congress will just touch the three digit mark'
"The assembly poll results are a clear indicator as to how the Bharatiya Janata Party will fare in all these four states in 2014.” says well-known psephologist Dr Sandeep Shastri.
“Although there have been various factors including Narendra Modi. I would also say that the results in Madhya Pradesh are clearly due to good governance by Shivraj Singh Chauhan. Here I would say that the people have voted for Shivraj Singh.”
“In Delhi and Rajasthan, the BJP won mainly because the voter was unhappy with the Congress at the Centre. They paid for the misdeeds of the Union government. There was a high level of discontent and unhappiness with the Congress government at the Centre and hence the people voted their governments out in Delhi and Rajasthan. The results have been good to the extent that the people have conveyed the message that performance does matter. The voters have also conveyed the message that unless and until you provide for the people at the ground level you won’t get votes.”
“Let us also not forget that Vasundhara Raje was a prospective chief minister and a well-known face. Yes the Modi factor did help her but again it did more in the border areas of Gujarat and Rajasthan.”
“I personally feel that Modi has not been fully tested as yet. The big test would be in 2014. While this result has given him a further boost, I still feel that in Delhi the BJP could have done better. All parties against the Congress would now capitalise on the bad performance at the Centre and this is exactly how even the 2014 elections would be fought.”
“In 2014, the Congress is expected to fare badly due to its performance at the Centre. However, I feel that they will still touch the three digit mark.”
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'The Congress will win only 50 seats in the 2014 election'
"I do not give the Congress more than 50 seats in the 2014 elections and the results today are only an indicator that the party has become a bottomlesspit as the fall was so deep,” said G V L Rao, advisor to Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan. He says that although these elections were factored around the state leadership, the national mood with Narendra Modi at the helm of affairs has been reflected.
“This is a warning to the Congress and it has paid a big price. The results in Delhi are a clear indicator that it has become a bottomless pit and the fall knows no bounds,” he said.
“The verdict in Delhi also shows that there is an alternative to the Congress in the form of the Aam Admi Party. Yes there is talk they ate into a lot of votes but those were of the Congress. Wherever this party has a standing it will continue to eat into Congress votes. However in 2014 the AAP voters will go with Modi since they are the kind of voters who want a change,” Rao said.
“I see a huge positive for Modi here at the national level. Had Modi not been announced as the PM candidate, the BJP would have lost out a great deal. In the state elections, his biggest impact was at Delhi and Rajasthan. It was his presence which swung it for the BJP.
You will see a further downfall of the Congress in the days to come and it will become evident when they win just 50 seats in the year 2014,” he concluded.
'Narendra Modi has passed the litmus test'
"Narendra Modi has passed the litmus test and the election results have proven that Rahul Gandhi has no takers,” says senior Bharatiya Janata Party senior leader Suresh Kumar and former law minister of Karnataka.
“After we projected Modi as the prime ministerial candidate a lot has changed for the BJP. There is a fresh zeal among the party workers. Our party in Karnataka was down after losing the assembly elections but since the announcement that Modi would be the party’s prime ministerial candidate, there is a fresh lease of life and we hope to perform much better in the parliamentary elections,” he said.
“My analysis of the results today would have to begin by congratulating the voter. Hats off to them for voting in such large numbers and against the Congress. Only in Chhattisgarh the results did not go as expected. It was not a vote against Raman Singh. The Congress gained due to sympathy due to the Naxal attack in which several of its state leaders were killed,” he said.
“In Madhya Pradesh, people have voted for good governance. They have voted for Shivraj Singh Chauhan and for development and a better future. He has proven he is a very credible leader,” he said.
“In Rajasthan, the people voted for a change. Modi has made a big difference here. Ashok Gehlot on the other hand who had been given a chance last time spoilt his image and he was lacking in credibility.”
“In Delhi, however, it was a case of double incumbency for Sheila Dikshit. Her downfall actually began after the Commonwealth Games scam. Her double incumbency was both due to the central government as well as her own. The law and order situation and the manner in which she handled it also did her in,” he said.
“The Modi factor has been huge. When we projected him as the PM candidate, the Congress pushed Rahul forward. The difference was people flocked to Modi rallies but not the ones addressed by Rahul. This means Modi has won the litmus test,” he said.
“These results and the Modi factor has given the BJP in Karnataka a fresh lease of life. In the past six months a lot has changed for us. Let us also not forget about a fatigue-filled performance by the Siddaramaiah-led Congress government. You will see that we will gain in the general elections,” he said.
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We knew the BJP will come back to power in MP
It is a big day for Ananth Kumar, the member of Parliament from Bangalore who is in charge of Madhya Pradesh. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh has won big, and Kumar says that the result was expected.
“I have said this all along. All through the campaigning we knew that the Bharatiya Janata Party will come back to power. There is only one big reason for this and that is the chief minister has put up a very good show in terms of governance and catering to the needs of the people. Singh is very popular, and we were confident that the BJP will retain power in MP,” he said.
“Yes there was a discussion about anti-incumbency during our election strategy meetings. We did a bit about it but were not largely worried since we knew we could come back to power because of the Singh factor. However, there were some legislators who did have this problem of anti incumbency. We denied tickets to some 43 legislators. This we needed to beat the anti-incumbency factor. However, it was present at the macro level and we took care of it,” he added.
The Congress did do a lot to undermine the BJP. They had come out with a charge sheet too. It never mattered since the government of eight years was so good that even the voter realised it. With regard to BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, he said that he is the hope of India and its people.
“He has charged up the entire country,” he added.
Image: Member of Parliament from Bangalore Ananth Kumar